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POLL: MPR Minnesota (8/7-17)


Minnesota Public Radio /
Humphrey Institute
8/7-17/08; 763 LV, 3.6%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Mode
Obama 48, McCain 38, Nader 3, Barr 1

Full results

 

Comments
boskop:

this poll is inconsistent with other most recent ones. and as such, event they feel a little awkward with their numbers: here's their forward guiding statement:

"The results of a new Minnesota Public Radio and University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute poll show Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain in the state by 10 percentage points. But the poll indicates the race is still very fluid. It suggests McCain could close the gap, and possibly win in Minnesota, if he picks Gov. Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. "

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BarackO'Clinton:

So much for the McCain trend and MN being competitive.

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KipTin:

I will add from the analysis:

"Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, said despite the double-digit margin, the race in Minnesota remains fluid. Jacobs said 10 percent of those polled were undecided, and supporters of each candidate said they might change their minds.
"This is not a poll saying Obama has a lock on Minnesota. Far from it."
- Larry Jacobs, of the Humphrey Institute

"So this race is very much up in the air and up for play," he said. "This is not a poll saying Obama has a lock on Minnesota, far from it."

Ergo the pollsters say the state is still competitive.

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KipTin:

Even with this poll... RCP still has MN as toss-up with an average Obama +4.5:

MPR +10
Survey USA +2
Rasmussen +4
Quinnipiac +2

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boskop:

you know i just looked at the graph. do you realize that this large a gap hasn't been close since last september?

and fyi: the one mccain just closed is larger than the one he closed back then when the elephants were being led out into the field and euthanized.

imagine, those days were the worst for the republicans and were the heady days of hillary winning for sure and obama being the sizzler,

i read charts all the time, not for the data but for the profiles. this one is huge.

think about it.

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TheVoice_99:

Oh yes, mccainbots, MN is winnable!!

Please tell your master to spend more money in Minnesota!!

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vandrop:

Pawlenty would not "seal the deal" with Minnesota. Plus I think it's funny that the RNC is gonna be right by a collapsed major freeway bridge, a sign of the GOP's failed infrastructure. (oh sure, tax breaks are great.)

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KipTin:

GOP's failed infrastructure? How is that? The I-35 bridge collapse is the result of both Democrat and Republican and Reform/Independence party (Jesse Ventura) inaction at state and federal levels. Note also that infrastructure is at risk in all states.

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player:

@Vandrop:
Federal Road and bridge construction and repairs are paid for by the 18 cents on a gallon federal fuel tax. It has nothing to do with tax cuts. Oh and by the way, there was a lot of flack about the huge highway projects bill for the states that the Congress passed a few years ago. I think that it ran in the hundreds of billions. Congresspersons do this every so often to appease their districts back home.

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Stillow:

I thought I misread it, but yes, he blamed the GOP for a bridge collapse....uhhhh, I actually have no comment on such a remark!

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vandrop:

Sorry everyone, that came out wrong. I just meant that it is ironic that such a thing would happen.

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BrookLynda:

Time for Minnesota to turn dark blue? Bigger gap than Pennsylvania.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Not only will the convention be right next to 1) Pawlenty's collapsed bridge, but all of the delegates will be flying into 2) the same airport where Larry "Wide Stance" Craig was arrested for soliciting gay sex from an undercover cop - and be staying near 3) the courthouse where Craig pled guilty to the crime!!!

Yeah, MN is in play the same way Georgia, Montana and Florida are in play. Close but no chance.

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KipTin:

Minnesota is a "toss up" on RCP. Pollster uses trend lines and it still shows Obama trending down and McCain trending up... so still stays light blue. Need an Obama trend up to get dark blue.

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Otis Izaltumuch:

Some Republicans may possibly be counting on their convention to help in Minnesota, but with its Cheney/Bush baggage and the Ron Paul sideshow, the GOP convention might well get a negative bounce, at least locally. We'll soon see.

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KipTin:

And how is this Pawlenty's collapesed bridge? Be specific.

And if you remember correctly, the GOP did not support Larry in his Big Adventure but rather disowned him (and he lost his committee chairmanship). In contrast, many Dems supported Larry's rights to have bathroom sex... I mean privacy (which of course did not make Larry happy.) Even more ironic are those Idaho campaign buttons with the photo of Obama next to Larry Craig (was supposed to be Larry Roccoco). I would not be surprised to see some of those show up at the convention.

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KipTin:

The idea of a political convention is to get their voter base enthused. And the GOP base still like Bush/Cheney.

Very few GOP actually supported Ron Paul. Most of his support was Independent/Libertarian (Paul once ran for the Libertarian Presidential nomination.)

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BarackO'Clinton:

Are you trying to justify Larry Craig's dispicable behavior in a public men's room? Hilarious...My, how far the GOP has sunk. What ever happened to moral values? I believe it was Arlen Specter (R) who urged Craig to flip-flop on his resignation and retract his guilty plea. Is that how you disown a confessed sex offender? This is the party of moral values?

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TheVoice_99:

I love it how these pathetic repubs go around boards trying to drum up support for their corpse, I mean candidate. Do you think ANYONE is going to vote for the corpse after they see them both on stage during the debates?

On one hand we have someone who is a self made man, who has pulled himself up by his bootstraps, and finished at the top of his class. And on the other, a guy who finishes at the bottom of his class in college, an incompetent pilot, weak-willed (succumbs to torture), is a misogynist, uses racial slurs, flip flops on a range of issues, cheats on his wife with multiple women, has monumental temper issues, and has fully supported the worst president in the history of this country.

And the media loves him, so they never call him out on how he is unfit to be president of a small burger chain, much less the country.

Hmmm.....I WONDER WHY??

Even a fellow Vietnam POW won't vote for him:


http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,164859_1,00.html

What do other republicans and conservatives say about mccain?


Republicans comments about the party's presumptive nominee, John McCain.

"His temper would place this country at risk in international affairs, and the world perhaps in danger. In my mind, that should disqualify him." - Former Senator Bob Smith, R-NH

"The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic." - Senator Thad Cochran, R-MS

"I decided I didn't want this guy anywhere near a trigger." - Senator Pete Domenici, R-NM

"There's nothing redeeming about John McCain...he's a hypocrite." - Former House GOP Whip Tom DeLay

"He is a vicious person. They so disliked him that they wouldn't support him." - Former Representative Charles LeBoutillier, R-NY

"What happens if he gets angry in crisis in the presidency? It's the president's job to negotiate and stay calm. I just don't see that he has that quality." - Former Arizona GOP Chairman John Hinz

"John McCain is Bob Dole minus the charm, conservatism, and youth. Unlike McCain, Dole didn't lie all the time while claiming to engage in 'straight talk.'" - Conservative blowhard Ann Coulter

"Hardheaded is one way to say it. Arrogant is another way to say it. Hubristic is another way to say it. Too proud for his own good is another way to say it. It's a quality about him that disturbs me." - Larry Wilkerson, former chief aide to Colin Powell

An "embarrassment to the party." - Arizona GOP State Senator Susan Johnson

"I don't like him at all." - Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-CO

"It just seems like everything we did, John was someplace else...In my mind, he is not a conservative." - Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-IL


"He is the anti-conservative. He instinctively sides against conservatives and relishes poking them in the eye." - Conservative blowhard David Limbaugh

"If either John McCain or Mike Huckabee gets the nomination, it's going to destroy the Republican Party, it's going to change it forever, be the end of it." - Conservative blowhard Rush Limbaugh

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boskop:

READ the TEA LEAVES: by barack obama

hillary is not my pick. here's how you can tell if you really wanted to look

i am being coy and cagey, playful if you will. that's tough for me to be.
i am doing this to get all the media attention i can to propel me and my choice forward.

i am flirting with my supporters by dangling sexy email hooks and text message titillation. can you not guess why?

it's because i didnt pick hillary. if i did, do you think i'd have to worry for one moment about grabbing headlines and media?

chuckle, chuckle.

i couldnt pick that dame if my life depended on it. she'd whoop me on gravitas and charisma. yup, i made her the charismatic creature she was not when she started this race. damn it all.

arghh. anyway, that's why i picked evan bayh but i know you wont be interested once it comes out so, forgive my teasing folks, there's nothing left in my hand to play!!

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rdw4potus:

As a Minnesotan and Humphrey School alum, I have a lot of respect for Larry Jacobs & co., but I'm not sure if I agree with their analysis of this poll. I'm not sure that putting Pawlenty on the ticket helps McCain in MN. I think there are a lot of moderates/independents in MN that are put off by Pawlenty's inability to govern. Not only does he lack national experience, but his "no new taxes ever even if I totally f*ck my state to do it" policy put the state legislature in a position where they must work around him to govern. Timmy tries to be slick and he tries to be smart, but he just isn't either.

Bottom line, I might vote for McCain if someone else is on the ticket. Pawlenty's presence will turn me into a huge Obama backer, and I'm absolutely sure that I'm not the only Minnesotan that feels this way. Beware, McCain Camp, beware...

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KipTin:

I am not justifying Larry Craig's behavior. I cannot stand the guy (even before his Big Adventure). I am also NOT GOP. I was stating the nitpicky facts... the GOP dropped him like a hot potato and the Dems defended his "privacy." So why is Arlen Specter your vision of representing the GOP? I like Specter but really using his party affiliation to hammer the GOP (and accuse me, GOP, or anyone of trying to justify Craig's behavior) is nonsensical.

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marctx:

I don't really understand this number of houses controversy. Obama paid for a commercial to say McCain doesn't know how many houses he has? What is that suppose to imply???

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Basil:

This poll notwithstanding, I wonder if better educated people (or maybe just smarter people, regardless of education) are less likely to respond to any poll or survey whatsoever. For instance, who would ever dream of clicking on one of those internet polls that are in the margins of so many home pages?
It's a basic question, so I'm assuming there's actually an answer out there--but then you'd have to do a survey to find out.

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vandrop:

marctx:

What it conveys is that McCain is out of touch with the economy because he's so incredibly wealthy that he doesn't know how many houses he owns.

Obama told voters, "I guess if you think being rich means you've got to make $5 million and if you don't know how many houses you have, it's not surprising you might think the economy is fundamentally strong."

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player:

Obama has more money than McCain. John doesn't get to tap Cindy's bankroll.

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BarackO'Clinton:

KipTin:

Saying that Arlen Specter represents the GOP is not nonsensical in the slightest way. In fact, it makes perfect sense. Specter is a respected GOP Senator, not some right-wing riff-raff from Fox News. When he came out and defended Craig, did anyone from the party object? No, except for Romney and only because Romney was running for President. Craig remains a Senator to this day and the GOP has not disowned him at all. As a US Senator, he is very much at the top of his party. If they did, he would not be a US Congressman, he would be a former Congressman (see: Mark Foley).

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Stillow:

The houses thing I think is actually funny, Obama should use it in a comical way...the way the GOP uses the 58 states comment. Both guys are richer than most of us will ever be. I wouldn't be to wise to press it to much against McCain. He knows what its like to live with next to nothing!!
Both guys are millionaire's....so whats the difference.

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KipTin:

Unless Craig resigned like Mark Foley (which he intended to do at one point) there is no easy way to remove him. BUT as I already pointed out, the GOP Senate leadership removed Craig from his committee assignments. If that is not disowning, I do not know what is. It really irritates me that partisans on either side misrepresent the facts.

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KipTin:

You are correct Stillow. Spending all that time in the Hanoi Hilton surely gives McCain more than enough credibility that he is not "out of touch" with hard living.

As I pointed out on another thread... Obama going after McCain on "houses" opens up the "house" deal Obama did with now convicted felon Rezko... and that has already been part of the McCain campaign response.

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faithhopelove:

When Obama revealed the 18 states on which he would focus most extensively, I thought his inclusion of Georgia and his exclusion of Minnesota were questionable. This poll indicates that his judgment about Minnesota was right. McCain's convention is in Minnesota; if he couples this event with the announcement of Tim Pawlenty as his running mate, he may be able to make a move in this state. Still, Obama will have more money to spend than McCain after the conventions; if necessary, he can add Minnesota to his list of focus states at that time.

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BarackO'Clinton:

KipTin

Nothing is being misrepresented. You said the GOP disowned Craig, which they clearly did not do. Foley resigned, Craig didn't. When Craig tried to resign, a senior member of his party urged him to stay.

Here's Arlen Specter disowning Larry Craig...

"I'd still like to see Senator Craig fight this case. He left himself some daylight when he said that he intends to resign in 30 days. I'd like to see Larry Craig go back to court, seek to withdraw his guilty plea and fight the case.

"I've had some experience in these kinds of matters since my days as Philadelphia district attorney, and on the evidence Senator Craig wouldn't be convicted of anything, and he's got his life on the line and 27 years in the House and the Senate and I'd like to see him fight the case 'cause I think he could be vindicated."

The only reason you are irritated is because I am providing hard facts that prove the GOP did not drop Larry Craig "like a hot potato," as you have been insisting, but instead, allowed a convicted sex offender to remain in the United States Senate, where he still sits today!!! Sure, he lost his committee assignments but not his paycheck. Big difference.

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player:

@KipTin:
And then there is that matter with Rep. William Jefferson and the $100K cold cash in the fridge. Oh yea, Louisiana gave this democrat another term even in the face of caught on tape. How about that. Voters reelecting a criminal that is going to do some serious time. Oh by the way, he is still in the House, is he not?

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ChuckTodd:

Simply stated, there is no way McCain carries this state without Pawlenty on the ticket and even then it is going to be an uphill climb. Obama has had a healthy organization in Minnesota for almost one year and he beat Hillary Clinton here by over 30 points in the primaries. John McCain came in second to Mitt Romney, one of the few states the former governor won. McCain can do it but without Pawlenty on the ticket it will be a hard sell for McCain in this very blue state.

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Mike In Maryland:

marctx said:
I don't really understand this number of houses controversy.

McLame(brain) was interviewed by a Politico reporter on Wednesday.

Politico reporter:
"How many houses do you and Mrs. McCain have?"

McLame(brain):
"I think — I'll have my staff get to you," McCain told Politico in Las Cruces, N.M. "It's condominiums where — I'll have them get to you."

Audio at:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12685.html

The staff originally reported four 'houses'.

The Politico reporter slightly misphrased the questions. He should have stated 'residences' instead of 'houses'.

Estimates are that McCain owns between four (per McLame(brain)'s staff) and ten, or possibly more. Most have settled on seven as confirmable, with a total value of at least $13 million:

- Arlington, VA - one property (condo)
- Phoenix, AZ - three properties (all condos)
- Page Springs, AZ - one property (the ranch), with maybe 3 to 6 'houses' total.
- La Hoya, CA - two properties, but rumor has it that he owns three here (all condos), including the property he 'forgot' to pay property taxes on for up to four years.

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