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POLL: NBC/WSJ National (6/6-9)


NBC News/Wall Street Journal
(WSJ story, results, NBC story, results)
n=1,000 registered voters, 6/6-9, margin of sampling error +/- 3.1%

National
Obama 47, McCain 41
Bush as President: 28 approve, 66 disapprove

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Original post:
NBC's First Read teases two questions from tonight's NBC News/Wall Street Journal national survey. We will post the results shortly after they become available.

 

Comments
Uri:

Good news for Obama, since the bump isn't coming from HRC voters. They're still only 60% Obama, so he can only go up from here.

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carl29:

Back at the end of April:
Obama 46, McCain 43 with 11% undecided/other

Now, Obama 47, McCain 41 with 12% undec./other

What is wrong with McCain that is losing ground when he is supposed to be picking up the pieces from the democratic mess.

I have said it in the past: Hillary supporters, read white-older women, will move from McCain to undecided and then to Obama. I said today in another posting that McCain numbers are going to drop, undecided will grow, and then Obama's numbers will improve.

Pay attention to Gallup, Obama's numbers haven't changed dramatically(from 46 to 48); however, McCain's numbers are dropped since Hillary left(from 46 to 42). What that's this mean? Well, to me it means that in the heat of the fight, Hillary supporters used to pick McCain over Obama; however, as things cool off a little bit, supporters don't go that far. They are now undecided rather than in McCain's camp.

P.S: According to this poll if Obama picks Hillary, the ticket is supporter by 51%. Is that a lot? What you think?

P.S(II): Another interesting point, this poll NBC/WSJ found that Obama leasds McCain among hispanics is 62% to 28%. Do you remember where have we seen these numbers before? Yeap! Gallup on June 5 published an article with the same exact information: "Obama with a 62% to 29% advantage over McCain among Hispanics."

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Claude:

McCain is getting absolutely hammered among Hispanics. Bush lost Hispanics by only 9 points but McCain seems to be loosing them by 33-34 points. With those kind of numbers he can forget about New Mexico. But the media narrative is still "Obama's problem with Hispanics" which is not making a whole lot of sense to me.

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carl29:

Hello Claude. We hispanics have nothing against McCain, except that he is a Republican and the economy is a royal disaster. Hispanics are highly needed people. Saddly, we hold the lowest paid jobs which make this economical situation bigger in our households. It is nothing against McCain or pro-Obama but against Republican's management of the economy. Like James Carville said: "It's the economy s..."

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PHGrl:

Given some of the papers from AAPOR conference-- my question is are cell phones included in this?

Gallup says they do include cell phones- does this one?

Moreover, shouldnt there be greater disclosure on landline/cell samples?

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marctx:

Don't get too excited. I'm Hispanic and would never vote for Obama. Hispanics don't participate in polls. Bush got 44% of Hispanics, McCain will get that or more.

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onelightonvoice:

I'm glad you speak for all hispanics, marctx. LOL. When the numbers don't go your way, just make stuff up. Good one.


Too bad poll after poll refutes you.

Anyhoo, carl, I think it would be a mistake to put hillary on the ticket, as you stated he only gains 2-3 points. Why bother with all her negatives? She can't deliver WV, KY, or AR. What is the point then?

I like Kaine, Sebelius, & Webb. In that order.


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boskop:

as a hillary fan turned mccain supporter, i couldnt be happier with obama's lead. at what point does a man running on a 'holier than thou' sound bytes get taken down by the endless list of dirty politics that belie it?

so rock on obama, rabbits run themselves out...tortoises cross the finish line.

we're counting on his 'troubled marriage' (alluded to but never vetted in the New Hampshire diner interviews)to re-surface since Scarlett revealed her virtual pen pal is none other than the 'endless silly questions' snot himself.

this couldn't be making things too warm and runny down home!

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Dear onelightonvoice: Don't argue when the facts are out there. On the one hand, Gallup, the first one who came up with the % of hispanic support for Obama against McCain, based its findings on telephone interviews with 25,512 registered voters, aged 18 and older, conducted May 1-31, 2008, as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Now, it is NBC/WSJ which do polls with a democrat and a republcan pollster, again found the same thing. Remeber no one said that McCain will get 0% of the hispanic vote; therefore, of course you will come across with a hispanic who will vote for McCain.

About putting Hillary on the ticket, I still don't know. Some times I think why not, but then I see that independents will drop Obama if he puts her on the ticket. Can we afford independents to leave us? I don't think so. Chances are that democrats will come home but how can independents come home if they have no home. Independents are for Obama not for the democratic party.

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Tzal:

Carl: In your opinion are the Hispanic numbers a reflection of Hispanic opinions on McCain or, more generally, a reflection of Hispanic opinions on Republicans and their stance on immigration? I'm guessing it's the latter. Not that this distinction will matter all that much.

I know that question invites some generalizations, but that's what polling is about to a certain extent. . .

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Tzal:

Also, this is not a true "bounce" poll, as many characterize it. It was taken during the weekend (Hillary's speech was on the 7th, this poll started on the 6th).

I think the recent state polls are better indicators of any bounce Obama is getting as a result of Hillary's concession.

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carl29:

Dear Tzal: The support of Obama among Hispanics have nothing to do with McCain but with the Republican party on the economy, the war, and inmigration. Look, for many of us, hispanics, the inmigration debate got some "racist" connotations. Those minute men, Lou Dobbs, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and others in Fox and the media talked about inmigrants in a very offensive way, very dismissive. I really did not enjoy it to be honest. With respect with the war, hispanics serve in high numbers in the military, so no surprise that their families want them back. And the economy, this is a big one(the biggest one to tell you the truth), hispanics hold the lowest-paid jobs; therefore, whenever the economy turns sour for white americans, for many hispanics it really turns bitter.

Hispanics have always voted more democrat than republican(except old Cubans and Nicaraguans); however, Bush was abled to improve his numbers among hispanics by being very close to the Mexican president at the beginning and open to inmigration reform. Nonetheless, hispanics learned a hard lesson: No matter what good intentions the president has, if the opposition in congress is big enough he cannot do anything, especially if said opposition comes from the president's own party.

In certain way, Obama is being benefited by all the wrongs of the republicans.

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