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POLL: NBC/WSJ National Survey


NBC News/Wall Street Journal
(NBC story, results; WSJ story, results)

National
Clinton 47, Obama 43

Obama 47, McCain 44
Clinton 47, McCain 45

 

Comments
Tim K:

I couldn't see a favorability rating for Barack Obama in that poll, although they asked for Hillary and Bill Clinton, John McCain and George W. Bush. Why wouldn't they release a number for Obama?

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Ed:

They may not have released the full poll yet.

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James:

This has got to be disappointing for Obama, especially since the poll was being conducted even as he was winning the Wyoming caucus. With all the great press he's gotten and the fact that he's been outspending Clinton more than 2 to 1, you'd really think he would be 'connecting' with a much larger % of the electorate by now. And the news from Mississippi (where the overwhelming majority of whites voted for Clinton) and Pennsylvania (where she's way ahead in the polls) do not bode well for him either. If she wins Penn. by a big margin like 15 pts or more (which is looking pretty likely), the momentum will shift back to her in a big way and I think she might be as much as 10 pts ahead in the national polls by the end of April. If she then wins a re-vote in Florida by double digits in June (again, likely), and squeaks out even a single digit victory in a Michigan re-vote, regardless of what happens in all the smaller states yet to go (which they'll split), the superdelegates very well may tip the nomination to her. And if she has the popular vote at that point (which is also looking somewhat likely), I think they definitely will. It's going to be an interesting few months!

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John - Spokane, WA:


James

You are right on the mark - but you will find that most of these posters on this site are so in love with Obama that they cant see the reality of this deal. Its resfrshing to see someone that can express a posting like yours thats not full of rhetoric & Hillary bashing. Fox news just reported that the Flordia & Mich Delegates will likely be seated at the convention.

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John - Spokane, WA:


James

You are right on the mark - but you will find that most of these posters on this site are so in love with Obama that they cant see the reality of this deal. Its resfrshing to see someone that can express a posting like yours thats not full of rhetoric & Hillary bashing. Fox news just reported that the Flordia & Mich Delegates will likely be seated at the convention.

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Andrew S. in California:

4% is hardly upsetting and 1% difference between McCain is even more of a who cares. I'm not basing popularity either way on the margin of error difference between these polls.

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RS:

[partly cross-posted on my blog.]

A wealth of information in the WSJ results. The following may be taken as my opinion/interpretation (spin, if you disagree). I have summed the 4&5 responses (on a scale of 1-5, 5 being best).

The only quality where Senator Clinton handily beats Senator Obama is "knowledgeable/ experienced". Clinton 50%, Obama 28%. But Senator McCain gets 66%!

Senators Clinton and Obama are about the same in "strong leadership" and "good commander-in-chief", but Senator McCain beats them both by 11-20%.

Senators McCain and Obama are about the same in "personal/moral standards" and "honest/straightforward" (52-57%), and handily beat Senator Clinton by 16-20%.

Senator Obama easily beats Senators McCain and Clinton on the other metrics:
quality (Obama vs McCain/Clinton)
"compassionate" (59% vs 40/44%)
"real change" (50% vs 30/38%)
"inspiring/exciting" (56% vs 22/33%)
"easygoing/likeable" (69% vs 37/30%)

So my interpretation (spin!) would be... Senator Clinton is similar to Senator McCain, but not as favorably-viewed. Senator Obama offers the strongest contrast to Senator McCain.... and you could easily have a beer with Senator Obama ;-)

@Tim K - the WSJ results have favorability ratings for Senator Obama, right below those for Senator McCain. I think that is 51% very/somewhat favorable for Senator Obama.

@James - Not sure why you would think this is disappointing for Senator Obama. The polling period was March 7-10, right after Senator Clinton won big in Ohio, and won the Texas and Rhode Island primaries. As President Clinton once said after Iowa, the bounce comes on the second day, which would be the last day of this poll (March 10). Anyway, not many folks were paying attention to the Wyoming caucus; the candidates themselves spent only a day there (though the Clinton family spent two).

Anyhoo, the two candidates are within the margin of error, both here and in the corresponding Gallup polls. As has been noted elsewhere, the two sets of voters seem pretty firmly behind their candidates.

[By the way, Gallup today has Senator Obama up 50-44, while Rasmussens say Obama 50-42 - both statistically-significant leads!]

As for Pennsylvania, that's still 40 days of campaigning away, so hold your horses. Anyway, that will be followed by North Carolina, Indiana etc... A ways to go yet.

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John - Spokane, WA:

@ RS

I see that Obama is ahead in that all important category of COMPASSIONATE, that will come in real handy when trying to figure out the MORTGAGE debacle in this Country. OR the category of REAL CHANGE of which of course could be BAD CHANGE, like making the mistake of pulling all our troops out of Iraq because you didn't know Al-Queda had a base there & then have to send them right back at a cost of more LIVES & BILLIONS of dollars. OR INSPIRING so he can gives us all a big pep talk while we're standing in the unemployment line AND finally IRRESISTABLE so we can all feel so fuzzy & warm just like the Obama Girl who by the way doesnt know him and didn't vote for him. If he was running for Miss America, I might vote for him - probably NOT though.

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RS:

@John - Spokane, WA:

You do realize that of all the attributes polled, Senator Clinton is either about the same as Senator McCain (on all these attributes, Senator Obama handily outpolls both of them) or a distant second to Senator McCain?

By that logic, you should be supporting Senator McCain. Which is what I say - if folks really wanted experience, they should have voted for Governor Richardson. But if it comes down to a choice between Senators McCain and Clinton - the war hero is a clear winner.

That's all.

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just pixels:

"But if it comes down to a choice between Senators McCain and Clinton - the war hero is a clear winner."

That's why President Kerry is so admired today.

While McCain benefits from respect for Vietnam vets (Kerry excepted), he has a few obstacles to overcome:
- Iraq, although no one comes out ahead on that mess
- association with an unpopular party; evangelicals think he's a Dem, everyone else thinks he's a Rep
- the economy
- his age

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