4/17 through 4/18, n=608 likely Democratic primary voters
Clinton 47, Obama 42
If this number holds, and even if 3/4s of the undecideds break for Hillary, she is likely to pick up only 10 delegates.
HRC really needs a solid, double-digit win in PA to stay viable. A 12% win in PA would give her about 18 delegates - enough to offset the likely 18 to 20 delegates that BHO will net in NC. That would allow her to play in IN, where even a moderate win might give her a net gain of a few delegates over the 3 contests -- and help make her argument with the supers.
But if her margin in PA is anywhere in the single digits, a corresponding (and unlikely) blowout in IN becomes necessary just to stay even. What this means, I think, is that the race for pledged delegates is effectively ending. Each day that BHO nets a super, it makes the upcoming contests for pledged delegates increasingly an exercise in nibbling at the margins.
Of course HRC may continue to play the spoiler and keep some donations coming in for a while to minimize the red ink involved in shutting down. No one will be able to make the Clintons eat crow; however, Hillary is also unlikely to pass up her last chance at a somewhat dignified retreat.
Posted on April 19, 2008 4:08 PM
I don't see Hillary winning this thing with the media being so blatantly pro-Obama. When he's finally the focus of a debate, the media piles up on the moderators. That didn't happened during the October 30th debate in which all the questions were practically directed towards Hillary, or were made to Obama and Edwards ABOUT Hillary.
Posted on April 19, 2008 4:13 PM
Like I said before, I don't see why everyone's so upset with the debates. We're already done with the long "mandated health insurance" debates (where BHO essentially says the same as HRC), so it makes sense to discuss the recent news.
In the latest debate, BHO had to field topics he fielded before (Wright, Lapel pin, etc.), while HRC had to field a question where she was told the everybody thinks she's a liar. I feel that was a much more difficult question to answer.
Anyway, the race is over anyway, everyone jumped on the Obama bandwagon already knowing that he's the winning team. Most of the people commenting on websites about "Billary" were undecideds until they were sure the ycould pick the winner.
Posted on April 19, 2008 5:27 PM
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