4/20 through 4/21, n=675 likely Democratic primary voters
Clinton 51, Obama 41
I think this poll actually shows how deceptive tracking polls (especially two day tracking polls) can be.
What appears to be a huge movement to Clinton is, in reality, mainly the product of one nights survey results (Sundays) that, because it is only a two day tracking poll, taint the whole sample. Indeed, Monday's sample alone should have shown a 10 pt 1 day movement back to Obama.
It is clear that Zogby's one-day sample numbers were just moving widely about all weekend. (Clinton up 9 Friday, Down 3 Saturday, up 15 Sunday, up 5 Monday). Except random noise there is no pattern here, just random movement.
Her number is very high today because Saturday's outlier (down 3) dropped out, leaving Sunday's outlier (up 15).
Zogby's one day numbers yesterday were 49-44, in line with many other polls. Ironically, had the poll gone one more day her number would have dropped.
I wouldnt place too much stock in this poll, the final 10+ number is basically a coincidence.
Posted on April 22, 2008 9:04 AM
I would also note that Insider Adcantage now has Clinton up 7 (down from up 10 yesterday).
Again, we aren't seeing any real movement here, most of these polls are stagnant. I think Zogby was just off because of the weird two day tracking poll system they use (if they used a three day tracking poll, Clinton's lead would be about 6).
Given the volatility of their internal numbers, using a two day tracking poll was a mistake.
Posted on April 22, 2008 9:08 AM
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