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POLL: Newsweek National


Newsweek

National (6/18-19)
Obama 51, McCain 36

 

Comments
1magine:

There it is....

Have a good weekend.

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1magine:

There it is....

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carl29:

Jesus Christ!!!!

Let's see the previous Newsweek Poll:

05/21 - 05/22 Obama 46%, McCain 46%
06/18 - 06/19 Obama 51%, McCain 36%


I think this poll is a kind of outtie, but anyway, what a great numbers. I think that Obama's numbers are more close to reality than McCain's, why? USA TODAY/GALLUP has Obama at 50%, IPSOS also has Obama at 50% as well; however, McCain numbers in this poll, Newsweek's poll, are way down to me.


So, right now I don't believe these numbers for McCain; however, we'll see in weeks to come. If this poll is the first to come out like this for McSame, oh..goodness!!

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Mike_in_CA:

are we finally seeing the bounce or is this an outlier? This poll was conducted the 18th and 19th. Gallup's recent one is 15-19, and FOX from yesterday is 17-18. We'll have to see. Maybe Newsweek is onto something. Or maybe, as carl says, this is just an outlier...

Looking at the crosstabs, still 18% of Clinton supporters back McCain. This poll diverges from previous polls in that it gives Obama a much larger share of indies, and says that Dems make up a much larger proportion of the electorate.

Based on the smattering of polls this week, I'd say the largest dichotomy among results so far this June is that some pollsters are more fluid in their weighting by party, and are thus showing HUGE increases in Dem %, while other pollsters are more rigid, and stick to more traditional %'s. We'll have to see which method is best. It's gonna be a wild fall!!

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Andrew_in_California:

I'm sure McCain's recent alignments toward the President are now taking effect. McCain so far as been unable to effectuate a message other than, "That's not change we can believe in." He's falling into the same trap Hillary Clinton did by being branded as the establishment.

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Mark Lindeman:

Outlier? Well, we have about 27 consecutive polls showing the race in single digits, including five this week that average Obama +4 or so. So, I would say "Yes."

That isn't to say it's meaningless. I'm just drawing my personal line at the Newsweek headline, "Obama Opens Up 15-Point Lead." There must be a reason I don't work in media....

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onelightonvoice:

Let me channel my inner Chris Tucker and say "DAAAMMMMNNNN" !!!


Mark,

Outlier, or a sign of things to come? It seems to me that certain polls are picking up the substantial increase in support for Obama. Perhaps it has to do with specific samples and size or methodology? We will see...

As far as the 18% Clinton crowd, well we'll see what happens once they begin campaigning together as they are suppossed to in the next few weeks. Also, the Dems haven't really campaigned much with their big guns. It is so early, that repubs must be soiling their pants right about now. What will happen in two months when Gore, Bill Clinton, Hillary, and company start campaigning aggressively in Florida and Ohio? Yikes. What is McCain going to do? Have Bush and tricky dick go around trying to shore up the "28% approve" vote?

Yikes.....

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killias2:

Outlier! Don't get your hopes up.

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SunnyD:

If they identified themselves as "Newsweek," I'm sure they got quite a few hangups from the right.

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SunnyD:

If they identified themselves as "Newsweek," I'm sure they got quite a few hangups from the right.

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kingsbridge77:

Outlier, unless at least one more poll surfaces showing a similar Obama lead.

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brambster:

I think this all comes down to who is willing to break the mold with party identification and go out on a limb with redefining these identities. The reason why this poll is so far off the others is because of the following:

"55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way."

It's been said that Rasmussen has a more static approach in terms of party ID, while Quinnipiac is more fluid, and the net result of the two in Florida this week was a 12 point swing in margin. Besides the weighting of party identification, the only other notable difference seemed to be Rasmussen's tendency to show high third-party support which has to be from how they ask/push.

The Newsweek poll indicates that it only weights for demographic data and not party affiliation. In other words, it is also more fluid. My guess is that more fluid is better in a "change" election like this one.

The real question here is what method of weighting polls is most appropriate. I think Rasmussen probably works better in more static states, but they clearly have some big differences with others on a regular basis in certain states, and this may come down to them weighting for party identification and underestimating the change this cycle.

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jsh1120:

I suspect there may be far too much attention being paid to the gap between Obama and McCain rather than the actual support estimates. The 51% figure for Obama is not far out of line. In fact the USA Today/Gallup poll from earlier this week had it at 50% and a most other estimates are putting him at 48% or so.

How the Newsweek poll differs significantly is the substantially lower support for McCain. This might be associated with the widespread evidence that his support is soft and even his supporters are not strongly committed to him.

Without more information about the internals and the question order/wording it's difficult to tell, but I suspect that the relatively high undecided/other category (14%) apparently contains a number of respondents that in other polls are showing up as McCain supporters.

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