Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Pew National Survey


A new Pew Research Center national survey (summary, Congress, SCOTUS, Iraq, 08; results) of 1,503 adults (conducted 7/25 through 7/29 by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc.) finds:

  • 29% approve of the job George Bush is doing as president; 61% disapprove.
  • Among 623 Democratic voters and those who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (40% to 21%) in a national primary -- widening her advantage to "nearly two-to-one;" former V.P. Al Gore trails at 12%, former Sen. John Edwards at 11%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • Among 546 Republican voters and those who lean Republican, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 27%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (18%) and Sen. John McCain (16%) in a national primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 10%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • 43% say the U.S. will "definitely" or "probably" succeed in achieving its goals in Iraq; 49% say it will "definitely" or "probably" fail.

 

Comments
Andrew:

The latest Rasmussen, NBC and now Pew polls in agreement when it comes to the Democratic race. Hillary by 19-21%. That's the kind of consistency I want to see in these polls.

____________________

Pragmatic Liberal:

I like the consistency too. I also am pleased that Clinton is ahead or close in all of the early states. Combined, this to me at least points to Hillary as a very strong candidate across the board. If these numbers stay as they are, Hillary Clinton will win the nomination handily.

And, yes, I know it's a big "if", but these polls are showing at least consistent trends that I don't think can be ignored.

____________________

Andrew:

One of the most interesting findings in this poll is that 50% of Americans are happy that the Democrats won (congress in '06), with 35% unhappy. This is yet another sign that although the public expects more from Democrats, it is Republicans who are being blamed the most for being obstructionists and supporting the wrong measures.
Criticism against Republican obstructionism is virtually non-existent in the main-stream media. Pew didn't even once consider the possibility that Americans can't stand Republicans. Their analysis was full of negative quotes about Democrats, despite the fact that its own data was very favorable to Democrats, in comparison with Republicans.

____________________

Andrew:

These are not likely voters, but registered + leaners, and this kind of sample usually translates in a big lead for Rudy. When likely voters are surveyed, Rudy and Thompson are usually tied. One example is the latest ARG poll of "likely caucus goers" where Giuliani is up just +1, as opposed to the latest NBC/WSJ poll of registered voters where Giuliani leads by 13%. Rasmussen's likely voters poll shows a tie between Giuliani and Thompson.

One notable exception is the latest Hotline registered voters poll, where giuliani's lead is insignificant (1+).

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR