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POLL: Pew National Survey on 2008


A new Pew Research Center national survey (Primary analysis, General Election analysis, Issues analysis, Trends analysis, results) of 2,007 adults (conducted 10/17 through 10/23) finds:

  • 30% approve of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president; 63% disapprove.
  • Among 837 registered Democrats and those who lean Democratic; Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (45% to 24%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 12%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
  • Among 648 registered Republicans and those who lean Republican, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain (31% to 18%) in a national primary; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 17%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 9%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 8%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
  • Among 1,607 registered voters, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (51% to 43%) in a national general election match-up.

 

Comments
aLLEN:

With 52.5% of the people being Democrat or Democrat leaning + 7.5% being completely neutral and 40% being republican or republican leaning: On a head to head contest Hillary gets a net loss of 1% of her Democratic support. Rudy gets a net gain of 3%.

It is funny how when an uninquiring mind looks at those numbers and thinks that Hillary is doing splendidly. Then when you look at the real numbers you see how horrible she is actually doing.

Also note that in the USA as a whole there is a much larger population that is neutral than listed, there is no where near 52.5% that are registered democrat and likely fewer than 40% that are republican and way way way more than 7.5% that are neutral.

This certainly seems to be a very flawed survey.

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I'm not a pollster but my proven theory clearly indicates a "bandwagon effect" in favor of senator Hillary Clinton. There's absolutely no chance that she wouldn't make it to the White House. The now neutral voters are onto the Band Wagon effect and have made up their minds to support Hillary. Most voters don't reveal their minds or give false information. In BANDWAGON EFFECT the fence sitters usually climb the Band Wagon. Wait and see. I've projected a Landslide win-win-no loss situation in favor of Hillary Clinton and she would be creating electoral history in USA.

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