Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: PPIC California (7/8-22)


Public Policy Institute of California
7/8-22/08; 1,401 LV, 2.6%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

California
Obama 50, McCain 35 (May: Obama 54, McCain 37)

 

Comments

Take this horserace result with a couple of grains of salt: the presidential preference question is #42, after a battery of energy and environment questions, which undoubtedly primed responses. There is no indication as to what constitutes a likely voter. Only a registration question proceeds the presidential preference question. Although an interest question is #47, the survey instrument says that questions #42-44 are for likely voters only, so there is no good indication which questions were used to screen likely voters (note this screening method is different from Gallup's method of constructing a voting propensity index).

Further note that on p.28 is reported the full (voting-age population), registered and likely voter samples sizes. There were 2,504 people in the full sample and 1,404 in the likely voter sample, for an expected turnout rate of 56.1% (the survey is also weighted for phone usage and demographics). The 2004 California turnout rate for the voting age population was 46.6% (it was 60.1% for those eligible, which excludes non-citizens and ineligible felons). The likely voter percentage thus looks unreasonably high since it would imply a turnout rate among eligibles of 70+%. It's going to be a high turnout election, but not that high.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

Michael,

No grains of salt needed -- Obama will win California.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR