Public Policy Polling (D)
8/5-7/08; 933 LV, 3.2%
Obama 48, McCain 44
(July: Obama 47, McCain 43)
Sen: Udall (D) 47, Schaffer (R) 41
(July: Udall 47, Schaffer 38)
No movement. The story of this race.
Posted on August 11, 2008 2:20 PM
If Obama wins Colorado, he is in. Hold all Kerry states, win Iowa (he's way up), NM (he's up), and Colorado; and he doesn't need FL or OH.
Posted on August 11, 2008 2:23 PM
I think that Democratic Senator Ken Salazar’s approval rating at 39% (same as before) is not good for an incumbent. Good thing he is not up for re-election this year... even though the poll shows that he would beat Tom Tancredo. Curious about the low ratings. Both my senators are at or above 50%.
Posted on August 11, 2008 2:28 PM
No surprise Colorado is leaning Obama...the state has been trending blue for a while. Boulder, CO is trying to give San Fran a run for its money on the looniest city in America! I wouldn't be shocked at all if Col goes for Obama.
Posted on August 11, 2008 2:32 PM
"I wouldn't be shocked at all if Col goes for Obama."
That's 9 votes McCain cannot afford to lose. Iowa and NM are already blue states. If Obama can hold Mich. and NH that's 273 votes.
Not good for McCain, but we are still in the first half. It is going to be as long ball game!
Posted on August 11, 2008 2:43 PM
Well I didn't say I am happy about it, but Col clearly has been trending blue for a while as is most of the country. As a Conservative my vote in 2008 is not for McCain, its against Obama...if Obama does win, my only relief is knowing that the last tie the country ovted a liberal in, we ended up with Reagan.......gotta cross the shark infested waters to reach the island....
Posted on August 11, 2008 2:50 PM
Don't be such a dink. Salazar's net approval is positive by 3 points, with 25% undecided. Salazar also has large leads in the hypothetical match ups.
There's no bad news in this poll. It sampled slightly more Republican identifiers than Democrats, and Obama still pulls a small lead in a state that hasn't voted for Democrat for President since 1992 when Ross Perot ran extraordinarily strong in that state with 23% of the vote. Colorado is clearly turning Blue this cycle, and don't forget that the DNC's convention is in Denver this year, and that certainly won't hurt Obama's chances. Udall is also the odd-on favorite for Senate.
There's nothing at all bad in this poll. No one expects a 10 point lead at this point, or at all for that matter.
Posted on August 11, 2008 2:53 PM
I think that more attention should be paid to the possibility of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.
Two scenarios for this:
(1) Obama carries all Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico and Nevada.
(2) Obama carries all Kerry states *except New Hampshire* (recent polls give Obama only a narrow lead there--and remember that this is a state where in the primary Obama underperformed relative to the polls...) plus Iowa and New Mexico and Colorado.
Result: the race goes into the House where each state delegation, large and small, has one vote. Right now, the Demcorats control more state delegations in the House than the Republicans and I would expect that also to be true in the new Congress--but there might be enough evenly split delegations to prevent either candidate getting a majority, especially if a few conservative Demcoratic Congressmen from "red" districts refuse to vote for Obama...
Posted on August 11, 2008 2:56 PM
Things will not shift until after the conventions and maybe not until the middle of October unless something truely momentous or unexpected happens. My one nuance are when the University Communities return from vacations and significantly impact (eg North Carolins)
The Virginia "survey" poll flawed.
Posted on August 11, 2008 3:08 PM
Typical "brambster" calling other posters names as follows: "Don't be such a dink." Do you even know what a dink is? Thought not. Because I do not fit the description nor am I a "Nicki."
My comments were relevant (and civil). An incumbent without an approval rating around 50% is not doing swell. I had already noted one of the hypothetical match ups, but still Salazer should be concerned.
By the way, I support both Udall for the Senate as well as Salazar in the past. I don't know why "brambster" is so contrary except to be contrary.
brambster is at least trying to tone it down in 'its' fashion :>)
your posts are extremely insightful. many of us read without commenting.
Posted on August 11, 2008 3:16 PM
Some Rep leaning cross-tabs I think. Have not caught up with the fully changing demographic.
David T - Not so sure how likely 269-269 is. (I know 539 has it as a fairly high liklihood) BO would have to get IA, NM, CO and still lose OH, VA, NH, MO and IN and FL?
After convention in CO I think, lead moves up to high single digits, drops to mid singles after Rep. convention and runs that way till Nov. Thus creating the push on the ground and in the air in NH, OH and VA. NH should be easiest to win, though. Typically blue, and just waiting for first debate to determine if Obama is really the big bad boogeyman. If not, most will tune out till Nov. with NH, and OH tending blue.
Posted on August 11, 2008 3:27 PM
FYI, dink stands for "Desperately In Need of Knowledge".
Posted on August 11, 2008 4:09 PM
There seems to be too many undecideds in these polls. If voters haven't been persuaded by Obama's chrisma by now, it's doubtful if they ever will be.
Posted on August 11, 2008 4:36 PM
This poll has 38% Republican vs. 37% Democrat. July poll had 36% Republican vs. 40% Democrat. It is a good thing that in spite of a less democratic sample Obama still leads by 4%. In my opinion, the key to his success in the state are the Independent voters and hispanics.
Posted on August 11, 2008 5:19 PM
"gotta cross the shark infested waters to reach the island"
Just itching for more record setting deficits, aren't you?
Posted on August 11, 2008 5:42 PM
Colorado is a very key state in this election. An Obama win in Colorado certainly makes the electoral math for McCain more difficult. This poll at Obama +4 is better than the 538 projection at 1.3. If Obama wins the 2004 Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, he wins a total of 273 electoral votes ... so he does not have to win Nevada, Virginia, or Ohio but he does have to win New Hampshire (or else contest would be a tie).
Posted on August 11, 2008 7:22 PM
I agree. This poll is definitely good news for Obama, even though he's been losing some ground in state polls recently. Although, if the election ended up in an electoral college tie, the House would undoubtedly pick Obama.
Posted on August 11, 2008 9:36 PM
Certainly would be great to see my former home state (CO) go for Obama. The urban corridor is usually pretty blue, then the rural red comes pouring in and purple is the outcome. Boulder is unique, but Colorado Springs, CO has no rival for title of looniest city in Colorado (maybe the world). Highest per capita number of crazy people in the world. Pretty scenery though.
Posted on August 12, 2008 8:11 PM
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