Articles and Analysis



Public Policy Polling (D)

Obama 53, Clinton 37... McCain 31, Romney 29, Huck 27

Clinton 56, Obama 34... McCain 34, Huck 28, Romney 22

New York State
Clinton 51, Obama 32... McCain 49, Romney 24



I wish that they�d take polls in undecided states, not in states with a clear double digit lead...


PS: I know, this is just speculative and unprofessional, but I made a list for possible results in the Super Tuesday and I came to following results:
It will be interesting to see where I was right and where not.
It�s in german, but the words are all related to your language, so its no problem.
States are bold, state delegates underlines, results in percent are italic and the delegates the candidates could get are bigger.[at least I hope so]

Staat Delegierte Obama % Clinton % Obama-Delegierte Clinton-Delegierte

Alabama 52 45 55 23 29
Alaska 13 46 44 7 6
American Samoa- no polls 3 35 65 1 2
Arizona 56 48 52 27 29
Arkansas 35 37 63 13 22
Kalifornien 370 53 47 254 116
Colorado 55 56 44 31 24
Connecticut 48 43 57 21 27
Delaware 15 46 54 7 8
Democrats Abroad 7 40 60 3 4
Georgia 87 62 38 54 33
Idaho 18 58 42 10 8
Illinois 153 68 32 104 49
Kansas 32 44 56 14 18
Massachusetts 93 46 54 43 50
Minnesota 72 53 47 38 34
Missouri 72 51 49 37 35
New Jersey 107 44 56 31 76
New Mexico 26 57 43 15 11
New York 232 39 61 60 172
North Dakota 13 52 48 7 6
Oklahoma 38 43 57 16 22
Tennessee 68 38 62 22 46
Utah 23 65 35 15 8

So we would come to:

Obama Clinton

853 835

I hope the formatting is OK and you can read it.



The polls in the double digit lead states are actually fairly important because of the way delegates are allotted. Since the number of delegates a candidate gets from a state is more or less proportional to the percentage of the vote they get, margins of victory can matter quite a bit. Close wins and losses produce headlines, but little advantage in terms of getting a majority of delegates at the convention.

Take Illinois for example. Every poll taken this year shows Obama with a double-digit lead, but the difference between an 11 point lead (ARG poll) and a 36 point lead (PPP) is worth about 38 delegates, as much as the entire state of Oklahoma, and considerably more than either candidate will pick up in many of the closer races.




I found your extrapolated numbers interesting.

I've been doing the same thing almost daily now since SC.

My current numbers (not yet adjusted for todays trend changes from yesterdays) are generally fairly close to yours.

The biggest difference I see is, in my home state of California, I'm still predicting 49/51 (O/C). Your six point Obama win, 53/47 I think would be a huge upset victory for Obama. If he comes out anything above 50/50 that will be a big win for him.

"As goes California, so goes the nation."

My numbers have been, along with the polls, trending in Obama's favor since SC. My latest numbers from the last 3 days have it within about 40 delegates one way or another.

Going to be fun tomorrow for us number crunchers.




Hey Rasmus,

Yes I for one find your post very readable and understandable. But I must say I hope you are wrong! I'm a liberal but a huge Hillary fan and under no circumstances will vote for Obama.

I'm a huge poll watcher daily for about a year and also a media watcher (and I mean keeping an eye on cable tv news). These polls, I am watching closely the last 3 wks or so.. I honestly believe this is just too dang tight to project.

If you take one state and find in a 3 day period there were 4 or 5 polls done on that state, those polls seem to be way dif from each other.. as we close in on tomorrow there are polls out daily, many polls on some of the big states and even those polls are vastly different.

I also think some polls (may) have intentional bias.. for instance Zogby I believe is a republican and I know he's biased against Clinton (he showed it on the Daily Show) and I find it interesting that she is usually lower in his polls compared to other polls... so I have to consider the slanted poll possibility.

Also polls are not considering the amount of people in some states who already sent in their votes by mail (maybe) weeks ago.. this could vastly change the info.

Another issue, in my home we quit using a land line over a year ago..that means we are strictly on cell phones and polls cannot call our house and poll us.. I am wondering how many homes in the US have now gone this route. THIS could also play into the polling!

The polls are just so darn close right now (or) one poll is up and another is down, which makes them even,,, that this may be the closest toss up ever.

Also, this will NOT be done tomorrow night. California has so many mail in ballots to count that they may not have final figures for a few days.

Also keep in mind that votes really don't mean didly squat! it's the delegates that count and those delegates are not evenly handed out by the vote percentages.. Every state is different and it's complicated but there is just no way that tomorrow night, do i believe, we will have a clear person ahead on the Democratic side.

As for delegates, caucuses, primaries, closed or open, and super tuesday, I made a blog post several days ago to try and help layout what each state has and it links to polls if that state has any polls available. It may help some to know off the top of their head how many delegates, how many electoral votes and if it's a closed caucus or not evaluate their findings..

It's going to be a nail biting few days for many of us!



I couldn?t include the county results in that calculation, but they will nevertheless influence the delegate count.
But t least in the big states- CA, NJ, NY, IL-
I included their voting system.

I gave California to Obama, because it?s on the edge in most polls and I think that the undecided (most Edwards and independent) voters will tend to vote for Obama.
In addition to that, the FIrst LAdy of California endorses him, but I am 5.500 miles away from that state, I cannot tell if and how much this could bring Obama votes.

California has more mail in the ballots, true, but I think they should also have more counting staff, or am I wrong?
Maybe we won?t get final results from there, but 90% precincts or something like that would be enough.

I also thought that Zogby is a democrat, but maybe I am wrong here, too.

"As goes California, so goes the nation."
Thats absolutely true, the 123 delegates the winner gets could tip the scales today [for you, for me tomorrow ^^]



Rasmus, BJ,

Nice to know I'm not the only one crazy enough to go into this in such depth.

It's going to be interesting today.

I'm going to vote right now. Another California vote for Obama.




OK, time to check the errors in my prediction^^

Alabama: Obama +11, CLinton -13
Alaska: Obama +29, Clinton -19
Arizona: Obama -7, Clinton +1
Arkansas: Obama -10, Clinton +6
California: Obama -12, Clinton +6
Colorado: Obama +11, CLinton -12
Connecticut: Obama +7, Clinton -10
Delaware: Obama +7, Clinton -11
Georgia: Obama +5, Clinton -7
Idaho: Obama +21!, Clinton -25!
Illinois: Obama -3, Clinton +1
Kansas: Obama +30!, CLintno -30!
Massachusetts: Obama -5, Clinton +2
Minnesota: Obama +14, Clinton -15
Missouri: Obama -2, Clinton -1
New Jersey: Obama 0! Clinton -2
New Mexico: Obama -9, CLinton +5
New York: Obama +1, Clinton -4
North Dakota: Obama +9, Clinton -11
Oklahoma: Obama -12, Clinton -2 [Edwards 10%!]
Tennessee: Obama +3, Clinton -6
Utah: Obama -8, Clinton +4

Hm, in the big states I was not too bad, but Obama had a great show in the little states, he performed far over the most polls, because my Obama numbers were BETTER then the polls most time and nevertheless in some states he had 15-20% more votes than I would have thought...

I think that shows clearly enough that Super Tuesday was not a CLinton victory, maybe not an Obama victory, but never a Clinton Victory outside of California.


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