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POLL: PPP North Carolina (5/8-9)


Public Policy Polling (d)

North Carolina
n=616
McCain 49, Obama 42... McCain 46, Clinton 38
Sen: Dole 48, Hagen 43

 

Comments
Nickberry:

I actually thought that NC would be closer between McCain and Obama.... especiallly after Obama's recent victory there.

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Andrew_in_California:

7 percentage points is edging standard error. I frankly am surprised this traditionally red state is even in play.

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Nickberry:

Margin of error is (plus/minus) 4%.

The Senate race has Warner (D) far ahead of Gilmore (R). Maybe in this case, the down ticket (Senate) will help the up ticket (President).

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Andrew_in_California:

It worked for Webber in Virgina with Kerry. The sky is the limit.

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Andrew_in_California:

er I mean Webb

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axt113:

Obama is in pretty good position for a red state, thanks to his vast money advantage he can force McCain to waste precious dollars holding the state, and with a few lucky breaks may be able to tip it into his column

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Shadar:

"The Senate race has Warner (D) far ahead of Gilmore (R). Maybe in this case, the down ticket (Senate) will help the up ticket (President)."

That is VA, not NC.

But it's amazing the NC Senate race is close. It brings yet another dem pickup in the senate into the realm of possibility.

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Nickberry:

I clicked on the wrong poll. Sorry.

Agreed, the NC Senate race has it very close in the last three polls. It is very likely that a close Senate race will energize even more Democrats to turn out in a "red" state.

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Mike_in_CA:

checking out the crosstabs .. Clinton actually LOSES the women vote, 41-40, while Obama wins it 49-43! Why the disparity?

Clinton only wins AAs 42-17!!! (Whereas Obama is up 80-13, as expected). This is the first clear evidence we have that AAs could spoil Clinton's hopes if she were the nominee.

I expect Obama to widen his women lead once Clinton supporters come onboard with the eventual nominee. Also, if Obama won the same percentage of female supporters as McCain wins men (he trounces Obama by 20 points), the Obama would actually be ahead in NC. Leaves an interesting opening for VP pick.... Just a thought.

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Tybo:

McCain has yet to campaign in NC and he's ahead?

Not good

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Snowspinner:

NC is easier to turn than people give it credit for - its coastal regions are hot wealthy properties that bring an educated upper class in. It's 22% black and 6.5% Hispanic. It has three fairly large metropolitan areas - Charlotte at 1.5 million, the Raleigh-Durham triangle at 1.6 million, and Winston-Salem at another 1.5 million - the three areas together make up almost half of the state. Furthermore, the black population, though high in the urban areas, isn't all centered there.

It and Virginia are probably the two vulnerable southern states at the moment, followed somewhat distantly by Georgia.

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cinnamonape:

Tybo: NC is a Red State, traditionally. The Republican is expected to poll ahead of the Democrat there, just based on party-affiliation. Plus it's a heavily military-state. IF McCain has to campaign there it's a big negative since he shouldn't need to be expending resources in North Carolina to hold the State.

The new AP poll confirms these numbers if not punctuates them, putting boith Warner and Hagen ahead (or statistically tied) and Obama a bit higher.

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cinnamonape:

Tybo: NC is a Red State, traditionally. The Republican is expected to poll ahead of the Democrat there, just based on party-affiliation. Plus it's a heavily military-state. IF McCain has to campaign there it's a big negative since he shouldn't need to be expending resources in North Carolina to hold the State.

The new AP poll confirms these numbers if not punctuates them, putting both Warner and Hagen ahead (or statistically tied) and Obama a bit higher.

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Tybo:

cinn, in 2004 Kerry was expected to carry NC.. he was ahead in the polls 6 months before the election.

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Snowspinner:

Kerry's VP was a North Carolina Senator. That no doubt helped his standings there. North Carolina last voted for a Democrat in 1964. It's the state that elected Jesse Helms to the Senate. That the state is winnable by a Democrat in no way means that it is the most likely outcome - McCain leading in North Carolina should be assumed as the default.

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Tybo:

-" McCain leading in North Carolina should be assumed as the default."

In 1992.

Edwards was elected there, and NC has been trending democratic.

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Snowspinner:

Edwards was a one-term Senator with Republicans on either side of him - he does nothing to break the overall and overwhelming trend for NC to be Republican. It was close in 1992, but that was in part because Perot drew 14% of the vote. It widened to about 4.7% in 1996, and the margins were well over 10% in 2000 and 2004.

To suggest that Obama "should" win NC is simply ludicrous.

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