Pollster.com

whoa, i just was listening to nate on 538 who was recently beatified for some excellent calls, he just predicted the election going to obama because of ohio.

what gives here? actually, i do know having spoken at length with so many folks in ohio
( i go there a lot).

it is true that the independents are still holed up and resisting obama. and more than anything, it's the hillary factor that obama cannot shake.

i dont know how effective the convention will be to convince them but these ladies have a stubborn mind of their own and will not be browbeaten into submission.

then there's 10% still undecided. fascinating.

is there any scenario among the pundits where mccain actually wins ohio but loses the electoral votes?

This seems to validate the Rasmussen poll from last month. It was 52 to 42 in favor of McCain. This is a democrat pollster so 45 to 45 would seem about right. The 10% undecided could make it 52 to 42 if it was weighted with more republicans.

I just took a closer look at this poll. The was 10% more women than men polled. There also seemed to be an unusually high number of 18 to 45 year old polled. Like I wrote previously, a different pollster like Rasmussen would have McCain way ahead with a different weighting scenario.

Obama actually enjoys a rather large lead among independents in this poll so that's not the reason it's tied. The reason, per the pollster's analysis, is that 25% of the state's Dems either say they are undecided/not voting or are saying they are voting for McCain (17%). The pollster also says that many of these folks are middle aged women. If they believe in the things Hillary believes in, they'll come around in November and vote for Obama, giving him the state. If they don't and Obama loses the state and the election, then they will have only themselves to blame for putting the opposite of Hillary - ie, McCain - into the Oval Office.

Time to grow up, Dems. We only have one candidate in this race. Get over it and get behind him or deal with the consequences.

better to be conservative, i mean in estimates! ;>)

but everyone knows there's a lot of geo/pol/energy craziness coming down the pike. much can turn on a dime here.

i'd love to see a poll where they ask to what degree do you agree with your candidate of choice? and ask for percentages.

extrapolating from moi meme which is far less scientific but a lot more fun and expedient, i'd guess there are many more voters out there who for the first time are making peace with their preference because they find as much to take issue with as to take solace in.

i for one cant look at either without ticking off the pro's and cons. i bet i'm not alone.

honestly, it would be extremely enlightening to discover to what extent the electorate feels the same way and what for them is the special card one candidate might hold that wins the game for them.

character? gut reaction? charm? age? a phrase here or there? a biographical indiscretion?

"Obama sees both sides of the story. Yes Russia was heavy handed but it was Georgia that started the aggression this time."

Too bad Obama and his fans couldn't have grown up and extended to the whole democratic party.

He's reaping what he sowed.. call people racists just to get votes, and then expect those people to support you later?

Whatta guy he is

Good news for McCain. A heavy democratic pollster with no weighing and and more 18-45s and women polled. With weighing I saw McCain has an insignificant 2 or 3 point lead.

@OGliberal

If Obama loses, hopefully he can "get over it" and "deal with the consequences" of not choosing Hillary as a running mate.

@Player
Are you sure the number of 18-45s in this poll are 'unusally high'? In this poll the age group splits (for 18-29/30-45/46-45/65+) are 15/28/39/18. In 2004, according to the exit polls, they were 17/29/38/16, so if anything the 18-45 year old group is being undersampled in this poll. The gender breakdown from 2004 was 46/54, M/F.

Arithmetic error? I noticed that this poll showed a gender split of 55% women, 45% men. In the results, Obama led women by 5% and McCain led men by 5%. Since there were 10% more women in the poll, how could it end up tied?

This poll is probably why Pollster.com moved Ohio to "toss-up" status. I remember it was "lean Democrat" and now 20EV have been added to Toss-Up and subtracted from Democrats. (If I am mistaken I will appreciate correction.)

The PPP poll has 26% among "Other" as undecided. This tracks along with other polls that show the Independents/Other at about 1/3 undecided, which is a large number compared to previous presidential years. (Also... undecided Democrats = 8%, undecided Republicans = 3%).

This poll also shows Obama gets 80% African American vote and McCain gets 18%. This may go along with McCain's high ranking on "values" at 78%. (After last night's performance at Pastor Warren's Saddleback Church, I think McCain really cinched the "values" issue for the evangelicals. I am looking forward to see if there is any movement in future polls.)

McCain also scores high on taxes (84%), immigration (90%), and "other" (61%). Would be great to know what "other" includes.

Although this is a state poll, I see for today's tracking poll results that Gallup has Obama/McCain tied (45%) and Rasmussen has statistical tie (within margin of error) with Obama 47%/McCain 45%.

I think that the following statement from Rasmussen is a good one to ponder: "State polls tend to lag a bit behind the national trend because individual states are not polled on a daily basis. But, data released this week from North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, and Missouri confirmed the national trend and showed just how close this race is on the eve of the two nominating conventions."

undecided:
so what you are seeing may in fact be the edwards backlash. i know many on this site pooh
poohed it but i believe he turned many women's stomachs.

will that sustain itself in the next week's polling? i am beginning to doubt it unless the press keeps this baby a float. dont count on that from cnn and msnbc or other msm's.

sean hannity will, though...but that's not enough to whip it to death. i hope he does, edwards is a beautiful paradigm of the sleazy politician ala hollywood movies.

no mr smith goes to washington, ,ore the robert redford take on rotten to the core vanity.

The McCain first marriage story is really disgusting. She was loyal to him when he was a POW but when she got in a serious accident he basically said hasta la vista. Really bad. Most women don't know this. The Dems got to get their 527s in gear and start attacking. To hell with the "new politics". Are the Reps going to play nice? I don't think so. Women need to know this guy is a misogynist jerk and there is a ton of evidence to back it up.

nope. that wont help obama. for one thing, mccain took the sting out anything obama could say by talking about how base that was. beat him to the punch and has always talked about it!

but the fact is, that mccain has never been sanctimonious about his moral core. he has never drawn himself as the standard bearer for values and morality as did edwards and as does obama right now.

so sorry, it would backfire. plus the fact that when you are kept in a dog house for five years and your bones are broken you return literally a broken man.

very different wouldnt you say, than a well groomed pampered multi millionaire spewing
gratuitous soliloquys about up standing self, church, value, altruism, marital commitments, honesty, integrity, morality?
c

boskop-
Well... At least you would agree with me that women should know all the facts! Right?

Leave it up to them to decide what's important! You know...we report you decide!

@bmcfar01:

Middle-aged Hillary supporters are proudly holding back and planning to vote for McCain in November. Let’s see who will be laughing when all their sons are drafted and have to participate in many wars including one with Russia. When young dead bodies come back by thousands, they can be proud they supported Hillary/McCrazy.

Boskop,

One scenario -- I'll let you decide how plausible it is -- where McCain wins Ohio, but loses in the electoral college can be seen on the Electoral College Spectrum here (scroll down). The states are ranked from the most Democratic weighted average of state polls to the most Republican. If Obama wins all the blue states (of all shades) and Colorado, that would get him to 273 electoral votes. McCain in that scenario would push the dividing line between pink and light blue up to include Nevada and Ohio (265 electoral votes).

@bmcfar01:

So if Obama doesn't choose Hillary as his running mate - something I hardly think she wants - Hillary deadenders (small in number but enough to cause damage in key swing states) will hold a childish grudge and either not vote or vote for McCain, a man who is pretty much the opposite of Clinton? Yeah, that's a winning strategy...that'll show 'em. That'll help Hillary and the things she believes in.

Have to love the Larry Johnson/PUMA wing of the Democratic party. Dangerously petty and immature.

I repeat - grow up or reap what you sow. I'm through trying to win you over, because nothing short of a floor vote giving Hillay the nomination - NOT GONNA HAPPEN - will make you people happy. She lost...deal with it.

PS - Had she won the nomination - as she should have if her campaign hadn't waited until halfway through the primary before waking up - you would find no greater defender and supporter of Hillary than me. And I wouldn't even mind her as VP. That's because I understand the danger of a McCain presidency. Sadly, too many Hillary supporters don't...and they'll even go against the advice and direction of their candidate of choice by voting for McCain.

This is silly beating up on McCain for his divorce almost 30 years ago when he was still in the Navy, not running for office, and he has taken full responsibility for the breakup of his marriage. Even his ex-wife (Carol) gives him some slack for having been a POW for almost six years... and she strongly supports him as the best person for President.

I checked out Carol some time ago. There is even a Wikipedia site for those who are so inclined to read. Anyway, Carol is not a hapless woman. Here are some real FACTS:

1. McCain did not leave Carol because she was an accident victim. In fact, the divorce was SIX years after he came home. (She is also not disfigured as some state and looks pretty good, albeit she is shorter because they had to remove her crushed leg bones and fuse the remaining. She learned to walk again and does very well for herself.) And maybe too many forget that McCain himself is also disabled.

2. The divorce was in 1980. Carol did not want another divorce (She was married before) and finally agreed in 1980. Notably in 1979 Carol moved to California and worked as an assistant to Nancy Reagan, helped plan the 1980 GOP convention, and worked almost the full term in the White House. She has been professionally and successfully employed all this time... and maintains a good relationship with McCain. The whole extended family is so well integrated, that even Carol's two boys from her first marriage (whom McCain adopted) are employed in high positions at Cindy's corporation.

3. It is really disgusting how the Obama followers like to call McCain names and focus on long ago, which is really more Rovian than Rove. It looks and sounds like the former "right-wing conspiracy" has morphed into the "left-wing conspiracy"... because I cannot tell them apart anymore.

P.S. If one wants to discuss Cindy's drug use then it is fair game to go after Obama's past drug use. Yet, the founder of BET (a billionaire African=American businessman) was crucified for his little remark.

"If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen."-- Harry S. Truman.

Maybe Obama would be well served to have studied political history so that he would not be so surprised and "diminished" when people speak out against him.

@zotz:
You try being a POW for five years in a prison camp. Lets see how you get along with your spouse after you return. After a year in combat over there,I was a totally different person when I came home than when I left. My family couldn't get close to me. It took me years to return to normal. McCain had it lots worse than me. It takes a lot of time to get back what you lost; namely your reasoning ability. Obama supporters would be wise to stay away from the personal attacks on McCain. Those personal attacks that were done on HRC were ugly. It will probably cost Obama the election.

Tight race, we are seeing a McCain bump bigger than the one produced 2 weeks ago on the back of the negative ads. Since Obama got back from his travels score 2 out of the last 3 weeks to McCain.

I expected better on the Obama side with the bad PR McCain has been getting on the DHL thing.

I am taking these numbers at face value.

With regards Saddleback on reflection:

I knew the cross thing was straight out of Hollywood. What movie? McCain was well rehearsed disappointed in the good Rev Rick. Either McCain was supplied the questions or they were well anticipated by his handlers.
MSM is so lame!

Before the conventions McCain's military psychological profile files, indeed his full records need to be released. The American people are entitled to be assured that the man that they are voting for is equipped for office.

so let me this if john edwards would have a pow who was tortured then cheating on his wife would have been okay to do? that is very hypocritical. there is no excuse for cheating in any way shape or form. it is a very disrespectful act to do to anyone. my dad fought in vietnam and he didnt come home and cheat on my mom and ask for a divorce. that is a weak argument to make. also if im not mistaken didnt john edwards wife still stay with him and forgive after he told her.

so mccain lied about the cross story.yeah the good old straight talk express

@saywhat90

What movie was the cross in the sand scene in?

I don't have a problem with a guy's personal life. He has held his hands up for the marriage thing and that's all he can be reasonably expected to do.

So you want to see a military psychological profile for McCain who has been in Congress for over 25 years and out of the service for nearly 30? Also...FYI: If you know anything about "psychology" you would know that the field has changed drastically since the old military pysch profiles.

That being said...What kind of "psychological" evidence do you think we the public should see regarding Obama who is a freshman Senator (3 years)? Good grief, Obama did not even fully release his medical records. Instead we got a one page overview assuring us of his good health.

@Pat and OGliberal

Pat,

Images of thousands of American caskets from Russia? John "McCrazy?" I thought Obama and his supporters were running against the politics of fear?

OGliberal,

The Democratic party is going to be as obsolete as ever if it continues to ignore its moderate wing and take marching orders from a narrow bunch of loud, leftist, elitist activists like DailyKos, Huffington Post, the Nation and Katrina van den Heuvel, Kieth Olbermann, and others. All of these have been strident, sometimes insulting, in their criticism of Clinton and her supporters.

I've lived through worse GOP administrations than a possible McCain/Ridge or McCain/Romney term...and the Dems control the Congress so reversing Roe v. Wade, banning gay marriage, enacting a flat tax, quixotic military crusades, and any number of conservative pet projects aren't going anywhere.

So, if anyone is going to "reap" what they "sow," it will be the left wing noise machine (to borrow a phrase) when Obama loses in November.

Again this could probably be avoided if he picks Clinton as his VP.

The fact that people are responding here to the McCain first marriage story is proof that it has legs. Believe me, it is a character issue and women will care about it. When McCain gave his "No comment" answer to the reporter about Edwards' affair last week I could tell the question made him very nervous.

Player, I disagree with you about being a POW. Many POWs state that the thought of their wife and family is one of the main things that holds them together emotionally when they are in captivity. For whatever reason, this was not the case with McCain.

@SayWhat90:
Then ask you dad what he thinks of the situation. You are not qualified to make that kind of comparison. Think of the Iraq veterans of today coming home and committing suicide. There is a high rate in any war. Some can make it and some can't. You wouldn't know just how much hell a person goes through until you have fought in one. I had a lot of faith in John Edwards.We are from the same state and grew up the same way. He let me and a lot of others down. He turned out to be nothing more than a self infatuated sleaze.

So the utilization of the universal symbol of the cross cannot happen to more than one person? But if Daily Kos says it is plagiarism than it must be true, huh? Silly people spreading innuendos about McCain because he tells a good story.

This "cross story" is not recent. Here is a link to the same McCain story from "All Things Considered," October 17, 2005--
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4959134

But maybe this is fair when looking at the bigger picture since the anti-Obama people have gleaned Obama's autobiography and found a few gems in there. Difference is that McCain really was a POW who was tortured and his story is compelling no matter the details. It is dangerous ground attacking McCain over his time in captivity. More dangerous than directly implying he is a racist. This will only backfire on "Obamanation." (I really like that newly coined word.)

Hey "Undecided"
Let us know when you have decided who you are going to vote for. Your moniker sounds a little disingenuous!

Only zotz thinks the McCain marriage story has "legs." (Poor metaphor considering Carol's disability.) Correcting false statements by the zotz of the world is not verification of a misrepresentation of the facts.

Also... Soldier/sailors returning after a long absence have more marital/family problems than the average citizen. Add to that being a POW for almost six years and returning to a household where the little kids do not remember dad and where mom was the sole authority figure. This is not "Leave It to Beaver" or "The Donna Reed Show." Notably there are several films after WWII showing the family turmoils of returning soldiers. Check out "The Best Years of Our Lives" (1946).

Well, zotz, I may change it soon. After last night's performance at Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Civil Forum I am really leaning toward John McCain. I am not a social conservative but I believe in Federalism, and McCain is very strong on state's rights. I also think he is the much much better candidate.

Of course, I decided NOT to vote for Obama some time ago because of his/his campaign's/his followers tendency to imply people are racists and/or stupid. Blame yourselves for losing votes for Obama.

But there are still other candidates in the race... Nader and Barr. Nader has many good issues and Barr is a 4th amendment advocate (privacy rights... one of my favorite amendments. Caroline Kennedy wrote a very good book about the 4th amendment.) Notably, Barr worked for the ACLU these past few years. Yep, a long ways from impeaching Clinton.

No matter, I will switch my screen ID when inspired to do so. So do not worry your pretty little head. Just learn to be patient.

Hey "Undecided"
You said you got your info from Wikipepedia. Did you read this part?

John McCain would later say, "My marriage's collapse was attributable to my own selfishness and immaturity more than it was to Vietnam, and I cannot escape blame by pointing a finger at the war. The blame was entirely mine."[24] Carol McCain would later say: "The breakup of our marriage was not caused by my accident or Vietnam or any of those things. I don't know that it might not have happened if John had never been gone. I attribute it more to John turning 40 and wanting to be 25 again than I do to anything else."[24] John McCain's biographer, Robert Timberg believes that "Vietnam did play a part, perhaps not the major part, but more than a walk-on."[29] According to Carol, her husband's five-year captivity in Vietnam had left him wanting to "make up for lost time,"[1] and John put it this way: "I had changed, she had changed....People who have been apart that much change."[29] Ross Perot would later say, " After he came home, he walked with a limp, she [Carol McCain] walked with a limp. So he threw her over for a poster girl with big money from Arizona [Cindy McCain, his current wife] and the rest is history."

I was just thinking... according to Obama's genealogy chart, I am related to him. One would assume I would want to vote for my distant cousin... but then again George W. is also a distant cousin, and I did not vote for him. I guess not voting for either would be the most equitable thing to do.

Of course, I read Wikipedia. Why would I have referred to it and recommended it as a quick overview? I also have read several other sources. So are you relying on a quote from Ross Perot as the ultimate truth? Ironic.

What do you not understand that McCain was back six years before the divorce? I am not excusing McCain's behavior (and neither is he) but it is not a direct cause/effect that McCain came home to a disabled wife and then instantly threw her over for Cindy. Try and get some perspective on reality (and the timeline).

I really don't care about his personal life. We all make mistakes. But it is the kind of mistakes we make that define our character. And you, I assume, would agree that character is an issue. Your side, Undecided, has been looking for a way to swift-boat Obama from the beginning. Your side, has no problem with Corsi who uses lies, smears, inuendo, anything that might stick. Yet when you find a Dem that hits back using facts you are, shall we say, annoyed. I don't think you're stupid. I have no idea if you're racist. But I do think your side uses dirty tactics and I believe in my sides's cause enough to fight back.

Hey, I am back under a new ID. Happy now?

What side? I do not have a "side." I am not a Republican, but I have been known to vote for a GOP candidate.

Where does this Corsi fit in anyway? He has a clever book title but he is also not on McCain's side (i.e. Corsi does not like McCain). I do not like Corsi or his ilk. Enough said there.

I am not annoyed with anyone using facts (Dems, GOP, Libertarians, Green, Blue, Red, whatever)... but rather nitpicky about them... meaning that they really have to be facts, i.e. true representations. (Hint: Character assassination is rarely based on truth-telling.) The fact is that almost all of Obama's problems have been self-inflicted by his own words and actions. No one needs to make stuff up.

Finally... Campaign rhetoric is what it is. (Definition of 'rhetoric': the art of speaking or writing effectively... speaking as a means of persuasion.)

@player

first of i did ask my father about it all it gave me a great deal of respect for him and what he went through. once again you miss the forest for the trees. wrong is wrong. you cannot excuse bad behavior by saying it was because i was traumatized by something. if i go and kill a man and say it was because i was tortured and beaten during a war will they let me go free. i would be in jail or in an asylum. i personally dont care what did personally in the past. but wrong is wrong even if obama does it. i m no fan of drug use either. if obama said he did drugs because he was a pow i would say the same thing. finally i can have an opinion on anything whether i lived it or not. the so called you have to be there or live it to have an opinion on it is silly. if that was the case then sean hannity or keith olbermann shouldnt be expressing their opinion about the troops the war in iraq the situation in georgia or the lives of the candidates for president.

@Undecided

Kerry released his full military. I really thought that you would want to know. If Thomas Eagleton was disqualified from VP after his records were disclosed. If Edwards can try to cover up his thing. My point is that John McCain appears to have been passed over for promotion and meaningful command and I would like to know Why, if we are putting the future of the country into his hands, what has he got to hide?

@Saywhat90;
I think thats see the forest through the trees. Anyway, I'm glad that you ask you dad. My children have never asked me and thats fine. I forgave my dad for the way he turned out. I share Obama's upbringing to a certain extent. I forgave my dad because he was in world war 2. He seen action in Germany. His brothers turned out great but he had problems when he came home from the war. They never served, he did. It took me to go through a war to understand why he was the way he was. I got his records from the military after he died. If I recall correctly and since you mentioned Kerry, I think that Kerry divorced his first wife didn't he? Did it bother you or was it an issue at all? I don't recall democrats or republicans making a big deal out of it. It was hardly mentioned.

Hi niTpiK-
I like your new moniker. I don't know who Corsi likes but that is not relevant. The Swift-boaters also said they were not pro-Republican in 2004. Bush denied any connection with them. Then in April 2007, Bush rewarded Sam Fox with a juicy ambassadorship for his role in smearing Kerry.
So, nitpik, that dog won't hunt. I have a feeling that you know all this stuff, you just think I don't know it.

Brit Hume used lies and character assassination in spreading the false Jerusalem Post smear that Obama was a muslim. People usually don't do research and just believe any crap they see on Fox. So, nitpik, are we beginning to see a pattern? Dirty tactics, smear campaigns, plausible deniability (you're good at that one).

Well I'm signing off. But in the words of the immortal Arnold I'LL BE BACK

@player

i want to say i am honored that you served in protecting my and all who are on heres freedoms. you are one the reasons why me and you can debate without fear of being arresed or killed.i thank you. doesnt mean i agree with you:) but i do thank you.

back to the polls. mark and eric have redrawn them and obama has lost considerable strong electoral votes.

say what you will about mccain divorce this or that. if you think it still has legs then i say let obama go for it.

he will in an oblique fashion probably via his surrogates and then in typical fashion take the high road and call his staff out on it like the good fork tongued reverend he is.

'nuf said', to quote the many monikered and very angry blogger voice 99, youforgotpoland, etc..etc..etc..

what will this type of sad creature do if mccain wins? we seen them in droves all over the web saying the same kind of stuff with utter rage.

clearly there is something far more at play in their choice than merely political. something, at the core of their brain stem that helps with their beating heart and the breath they take.

i hope not, but it is worrisome that there is so little objectivity even for a board discussion on picayune as evanescent as 538 delegates.

i could live with obama. could they live with mccain? if not, what would they do?

but just remember, that if team obama calls mccain out on this old divorce revelation (and btw most of america is either divorced, philandering, or never wed) then i say, 'yeah, but even kerry and bush provided their college transcripts."

so where's the beef, mr. obama? fork em over and show us in living black and white technicolor that you are as smart as you have other people say you are. transcripts, please!!"

dont hold your breath. he rolled them up and smoked them too. and for those who have attended harvard or other ivy league schools and i know there are a fair amount of you on this board that have, we all remember quite well, how easy it was to manage a magna cum laude or cum laude, (obama's average at harvard was 'B')

in fact, that's considered almost failing there.
editor of law review i will not take from him, he won it on his writing sample.

but judging from his extensive humphering around un-scripted questions, he might need to revisit
that skill.

as president, i sure hope he does!

rasmussen daily tracking released at 9:30

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46% ."

see results here: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

and now gallup's dt for sunday...tied at 45.

FYI... zotz. I have NEVER watched FOX news (inc. O'Reilly, Hume, etc.) I have never listened to Limbaugh's radio program. Can't stand Campbell Brown on CNN. I actually used to be a fan of Keith Olbermann until he joined the Obamanation. On MSNBC I only tune in to David Gregory who has a bipartisan panel, and who seems to be a bit more balanced than others. I watch Face the Nation on Sunday, sometimes Meet the Press and George Stephanopolous. I am always on the hunt for balanced arguments regarding politics. Best bet is the internet (Real Clear Politics home page and Google searches.) I do not have to be loyal to any party. I am a U.S. citizen who takes voting rights (and responsibilities) very seriously.

Regarding the Swiftboaters, I never paid attention to their ads (and like I said I never voted for my distant cousin George W.) I did just find out that T. Boone Pickens helped finance the Swiftboaters, yet I am on his Energy Solution email list and think he has some really good ideas. Obama and McCain must think the same because both have integrated his energy views into their campaign speeches.

My point is-- politics is not "black and white" (pun intended). For example, remember what the Bush-friendly attack dogs did to McCain regarding putting out the rumor that his adopted daughter was his "love child?" That is why the Obamanation misrepresenting the facts of McCain's first marriage is so disgusting (as well as questioning the "cross story" and that talking point of a "POW is not qualification for President). It makes those who promote this stuff sound just like the Swiftboaters or the "Right Wing Conspiracy." I call them now the "Left Wing Conspiracy." Anyone who participates in personal destruction of another is low, low, low. It polarizes people (potential voters) AGAINST your candidate (It actually raised President Clinton's approval rating.) It only serves those who are already committed to Obama.

In reality... "Politics makes strange bedfellows"-- adapted from William Shakespeare's "The Tempest." Of course, McCain may benefit from Corsi's book, but aligning him with the McCain camp is a false attribution.

There is a BIG difference between being "pro-Republican" and "anti-liberalism"... which the latter is the thesis of Corsi's book "Obama Nation." Coris believes that Obama is EXTREME liberalism. Corsi stated that he is not voting for McCain, but rather the Constitutional candidate. He also has written scathing things about McCain and promises to do so again if McCain is elected. Sometimes it is of prime importance to many about who they do NOT want to be President rather than preference for... similar to the W.C. Fields quote "Hell, I never vote for anybody, I always vote against."

@nitpick_er
now that, folks, is a fine blog spot.

kudos for the, level and direct thoughts.
you represent many of us out here with the same
feelings.

hope to see more of ya!!

Regarding the Muslim rumors about Obama. He over-reacted to that and overreached to "prove" he is a Christian... and has angered and chased away many American Muslim voters who would have otherwise voted for him. You say "But who will they vote for... McCain?"... and decide that is highly unlikely, just like the Obama campaign. What a bonehead move. Those who think Obama is Muslim and will not vote for him because of that were not going to vote for him anyway.

Here is a clue about voting choice-- Ralph Nader is Lebanese-American/Arab American (he speaks Arabic fluently plus five other languages in addition to English) and they like him. This does hurt Obama because it certainly can flip at least one state for McCain by Obama losing those votes to Nader.

Here are the facts: MICHIGAN has the second-largest Arab community outside the Middle East, after Paris. About 300,000 people of Arab descent live in southeast Michigan, including significant numbers of Iraqi, Lebanese, Yemeni, and Palestinian Americans. Three-quarters Arab-Americans use Arabic language media to keep informed.

Demographers estimate that more than 8 million Muslims live in the United States, making them the second-largest religious community in the country. About half of Arab Americans are Muslim, while the other half identify themselves as Christian. In the past few decades, Islam has become the fastest-growing religion in the United States.

Source: http://pn.psychiatryonline.org/cgi/content/full/40/2/13-b

Thanks boskop for the compliment... and the daily tracking updates.

In the Rasmussen narrative is the interesting analysis: "Forty percent (40%) of voters now rate the economy as the top issue of Election 2008, DOWN from 44% a week ago. National security concerns are the top priority for 25%, uUP four points over the last week. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary blip or the beginning of a lasting change in the race."

It looks like some voters were paying attention to the Georgia/Russia conflict.

I also see that the optimism for Obama and/or the acceptance that this is a Democrat year has fallen: "Forty-six percent (46%) of voters now believe Obama is likely to win the White House in November. That’s down from 54% in June but little changed from a month ago. Twenty-eight percent (28%) expect McCain to win and 22% say it’s too close to call. Nine percent (9%) expect an Obama landslide victory while 4% say McCain will win big."

It will be interesting to follow these numbers along with the movement of almost 1/3 of the Independents who are still undecided. Notably among all participants approx. 7% overall are undecided in the leaner category and 13% w/o leaners.

@nitpicker
the muslim issue is dead on the vine.
whether obama over compensates with religio/chirstian speak or whether corsi tries to build this into a swiftqa'aba thing is basically a non starter at this point in the race.

if it comes up again and again it is still too late in the full disclosure process. just as mccain's divorce.

these lame pile-ons tend to deflate whatever credibility these negative nuts might glean.

as for your discussion of negative votes versus positive votes. that's a poll i'd love to see... are you voting because you are against this one or because you are for that one?

for me, i think it's gets harder to sort it through, frankly. how about you?

Obama tries to act like Hillary & Bill but he is a clone of Pelosi. He raised $8m in one night in San Francisco last night. Where do you think his loyalties lye? Clearly McCain creamed Obama in the forum and NBC tries to spread rumors that McCain cheated. They were just knocked out of theirs chairs by how much more presidential McCain appeared. I hope the debates turn out like this forum. Obama will be toast.

Same old BS from "voice" et al with personal disparagement of another poster. And about McCain's first wife being "disfigured." Have you ever seen a photo of her? She looks fine.

I agree boskop-- Regarding voting as a negative or a positive... That indeed would be a good polling question. My personal experience was that I was open to voting for Obama but then his words and actions made me want to vote against him. Then I said to myself I will wait to see who his VP choice is. Well, his further words and actions have voided that option (even if it is Hillary, which is unlikely).

I have always found McCain likable, but it took a while to determine if I could vote for him. I find his stance as a federalist (state rights) to be a position I can agree with... ergo limited legislation restricting abortion at the federal level as well as NO marriage constitutional amendment. I also think that a bipartisan relationship of a Democratic Congress and a GOP President is very positive. It actually scares me to think of Obama as President with a majority Dem Congress. It would be as bad as that we experienced with Bush and a GOP Congress. NO BALANCE. Looking at the big picture we need to keep things "centered." Ergo my preferences for the Clintons and the Harold Ford, Jr. candidates of this world.

Good morning Nitpik
Very interesting about Mich. Muslims. Do you think they know about McCain's surrogate friend Bud Day? He said,
"The Muslims have said either we kneel or they're going to kill us. I don't intend to kneel and I don't advocate to anybody that we kneel, and John doesn't advocate to anybody that we kneel."

BTW, in 2004, Nader got 24000 votes in Mich. out of 4,800,000. That is almost one half of one percent. Wow! That's one more conservative red herring! Keep trying Nitpik.

obama had too damn much pancake makeup on. he looked absurd.

they tried to smoothe over his fatigue lines.
btw: with biden off to georgia, his vo stock is surging.

he was my pick from the get go. but here are two BOG reasons they'd best not take him:
one: he'll be 67 in november but reads much older thus validating the age and experience and senate profile of mccain. also, the obvious overreach by obama to graft gravitas onto his ticket.

second: the infortunate and pending investigation of headge fund fraud of his Attorney General son and brother.

"A Deutsche Bank executive is suing a son and a brother of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden for at least $10 million over a deal they had to buy into a hedge fund, according to court documents...representatives for the Bidens could not immediately be reached for comment."

so there you go. is it true? does it have legs?

heck, this guy was run out of the presidential
race years ago because he forgot to put quotes around one sentence. think of how Obama lifted verbatim deval patrick's words in the spring?

now it looks like his achilles heel will kick in again this time over something only generally related to him. but toxic nevertheless.

:>(

This poll continues the trend of overestimating African American support for John Mccain. We saw something like this in the later Democratic primaries when Hillary C linton was garnering 15% to 20% of AA support in polls.

The reality is that Obama will get 9 out of 10 black voters supporting him. The two main questions are how many percentage points over 90 can he get in the swing states and how much will AA turnout increase from 2004?

Yes, Andrea Mitchell on Meet the Press seemed to be an Obama operative. She often makes statements of innuendo and treats them like facts. This idea that McCain had the questions ahead of time and that Obama did not is ridiculous. It does appear often that Andrea is pro-Obama (she went on and on defending Obama about not visiting the wounded soliders in Germany because "she knew for a fact" yet she was remiss on demonstrating those facts)... but then again she also exhibits her non-professionalism on a regular basis with many issues.

FACT: Even during Obama's question/answer period he acknowledged he knew ahead of time the topics to be discussed and said he even did a little research on the orphan issue. (Pastor Warren had written a memo to the candidates giving them a heads up.)

OK... zotz... I said that the American Muslims/Arab Americans would not vote for McCain but rather one who more represents their ethnicity (and who has progressive policies that favor their viewpoints e.g. Palestine)... aka Ralph Nader. In 2004, they did not have a reason NOT to vote for John Kerry. Kerry did not jump through hoops to "distance" himself from Muslims. What I am saying is that Obama made a serious error in strategy in fighting the "Muslim" rumor. He listened to the wrong people (apparently mostly the media). Common sense should have taken over. Obama needs to be more pragmatic about choosing his battles and less inclined to fight ALL that is thrown at him.

I missed the "debate".....but I gather from the comments on here it didn't go well for Obama?

Obama did fine in the debate. Usual "nuancing" of his positions which some voters consider to be thoughfulness and laid back. I myself find it tedious that Obama does not speak in declarative sentences and he sounds too much like an attorney parsing a legal document to benefit his client.

McCain in contrast was energetic and to the point. Pastor Warren even got to ask McCain more questions than Obama because of McCain's more efficient style. McCain connected with the audience and the viewers. Even though I had heard McCain's stories before, he seemed to deliver them with more passion than normal, and thus actually invoked emotional responses.

djneedle83:

The exit polls in the Ohio primary showed that Obama got 87% of the AA Democratic Primary voters (which has to be almost all of them). One would have to posit that he has had major defections from that support to McCain, in addition to getting NONE of those that supported Hillary. THAT scenario is simply implausible...you are right that he'll draw about 90% + of that base. The idea that McCain is going to 20% is simply absurd.

Second, the PPP poll asserts that the LV voting pool consists of 55% female voters. Obama leads that Demographic 47%-42%. The males give McCain a lead by the same amount. He also leads independents that have decided by nearly 2:1. So how can McCain be in a dead heat with McCain?

Something is really odd about the weighting in this poll. Did they throw out the greater LV status of women to make the poll 50%-50%. Was the LV sample ascertained before the questions...with the reported results on the interview the "raw" outcomes? Or did they "reconfigure" the sample even after they phoned people whom they considered Likely Voters?

Does anyone have a link to the video of McCain / Obama / Warren discussion? I thought I'd ask before I try to find it....

maybe it's the lessening of his democratic base versus the shoring up of mccain's.
check out those numbers. it might be your answer.

I agree that Obama did fine in the forum. I watched his hour first and thought to myself that he gave good answers that he thinks the American people want to hear. I won't get into whether it was believable, i.e. opposes partial birth abortion when he supported in the past. Afterwards, I thought he had it in the bag. But then McCain came came out and immediately connected with the crowd being humorous, his answers were strong, confident, and highly emotional and engaging. Clearly ready to lead without consultation with advisers and redrafting of positions, etc. He'll use his values and core judgment to make decisions whether you agree with those values or not.

he's had more time to be himself. live in his own skin. carrying 200 paid advisers around in your vest pockets can be a drag on fully integrated responses.

his popularity and money may in fact be his ball in chains. if i were him, i'd fire most of them.

and try to get back to that nugget of fire and brimstone drive and philosophy that started the process in the first place.

otherwise, he is like a spider caught in his own intricate web.. completely unable to catch the fly when he most needs to be quick and decisive.

he's had more time to be himself. live in his own skin. carrying 200 paid advisers around in your vest pockets can be a drag on fully integrated responses.

his popularity and money may in fact be his ball in chains. if i were him, i'd fire most of them.

and try to get back to that nugget of fire and brimstone drive and philosophy that started the process in the first place.

otherwise, he is like a spider caught in his own intricate web.. completely unable to catch the fly when he most needs to be quick and decisive.

@SayWhat90:
You're welcome. During that forum Obama pleaded guilty to something that plagues democrat hopefuls to the white house. He said that in his youth, he was thinking only of himself. This was when he was drinking a lot and using drugs.( I never have figured out how he was drinking a lot and using drugs while maintaining excellent grades at Punahou; that's a tough private school.) I think that what he was describing is called narcissism. That is what Bill Clinton is accused of by the media. It means that a person is in love with himself. Does this define Barack Obama? I think that this is where republican candidates have it on the democrats. Americans want a president that is mainstream and not so self centered. I think that this is why Ronald Reagan was so well liked. Even though he had been an actor, he was always putting the country's needs first. It was never about one particular group of people or himself; it was always about the U.S..

So Obama didn't do poorly, McCain just did really well....! I missed it all, was at Disneyland with the little ones all weekend....just came back to read i nthe papers rumors of McCain getting the questions ahead of time, but since I missed it, I didn't know.

105 EV's remain tossups on this site.

All Obama needs to win is 4 of those EV's to become president.

The swing-state power list for Obama (States with more than 3 Ev's)

1. Colorado (positive-Western Whites)
2. Virgnia ( positive-Liberal Northern Virg/large AA pop)

these 3 states will be harder to win
3. Ohio (part of the south)
4. Nevada ( no liberal meccas)
5. Florida (old people galore)

Is it possible Obama could win Indiana and lose Ohio if Bayh is the Vice President?

@player...
interesting thoughts there.

when i reviewed obama's bio i noticed a couple of facts that most in the media simply never incorporate but speaks to your observation about him.

obama never did anything altruistic AFTER harvard. when there he took his plush summer jobs with fancy companies but thereafter...U of C wanted this first black editor of the law review.

what did he do? he sat and wrote a book about himself, yes folks, me, me, me, me and franked his pay checks from U of C far beyond the school's original desire that he write the darn book in a year.

in fact, he was so involved in his frantic need to find his papa, his roots and what not, that he ventured farther and farther from the hood and needed to get to Bali to finish it. what, it took him say almost five years to get the thing written?
\
he was smoking like a chimney replacing the obsessive compulsion of drinks and drugs if you will, with self absortion.

and a reminder to one and all...he never was a professor at Chicago.

so let's see, basically all he ever did outside of the legislature was think about his wonderful self, lock himself in a smoke filled room to contemplate his father/son issues and then high tail it to trinity for crash courses in his PEOPLE, those folk that lived on the other side of the ivy strewn walls of his quiet office or the balmy bungalow of bali.

Despite being in China for the since Saturday, I have managed to keep completely up to date and reflect.

There has been a lot of tripe on both sides spewed on the site.

I thought both candidates did well for different reasons with the Reverend Rick. McCain did come across as a well rehearsed Contestant on reflection.

As I said I am puzzled by this poll as there has been quite a few local Ohihan reasons for MCCain to lose support, but I accept at face value even though there are anomolies.

Mark has left us with a very good Convention bounce and bump insight to contemplate.

I am very disappointed that no one is picking up the more substantive Wes Clark and most of the rest of the retired top brass, dont apparently disagree with the point about McCain. I for one think if he is putting America first, he should release for this American and all other Americans his complete Military records as John Kerry did.

I hate to break it to the Obamaniacs, but the reason Obama is not only not surging ahead of McCain (as most "exciting newcomers" would be at this point) is that many "middle-of-the-road" voters (i.e. independents, Reagan Democrats, and moderate Republicans; many of whom supported him in the primaries/caucuses, many as an anti-Hillary vote) are starting to realize that there's just not much substance behind Obama's ideas or rhetoric. He doesn't have a record of bi-partisanship and he doesn't have a record of solving any real problems. Yes, he was against the Iraq invasion. That's his big claim to fame. But other than that, he mostly just gives big, self-important speeches. And quite honestly, his tax plan is terrible if you own a small business. In fact, if you really look at his (short) record (which most of his supporters don't seem to), he's been a relatively lazy senator. And he's so arrogant, he won't even consider Hillary Clinton as his running mate even though she got more actual votes from actual Democrats. Ohio will go to McCain, as will 270+ electoral votes. It'll be basically the same electoral map as 2004. McCain will have 1 disastrous term and Hillary will be elected in 2012. Mark my words.

Hillary definately has her sights set on 2012...right now she is still in shock about how some unknown rookie came in and knocked out hte Clinton machine....

She is not is shock about "how" the rookie won. We know how. 1) Tim Russert, Chris Matthews and the rest of the main stream media promoted & endorsed Obama from the beginning and threatened superdelagates with the race card if they did not support Obama. 2) Caucuses are unfair and undemocratic. 3) Obama disenfranchised FL and MI. We know how it happened.

@marctx

Hillary lost it. Did not prepare anything on the ground for after Super Tuesday. You're right didn't really contest the caucuses after Super tuesday. Had her campaign contested she wouldn't have lost 11 or was it 12 straight and margins therefore delegates a lot closer. Her campaign lost it - end of story.

Hi youforgotpoland-
There's a great editorial in the NYT by Frank Rich. Check it out.

"What is widely known is the skin-deep, out-of-date McCain image. As this fairy tale has it, the hero who survived the Hanoi Hilton has stood up as rebelliously in Washington as he did to his Vietnamese captors. He strenuously opposed the execution of the Iraq war; he slammed the president’s response to Katrina; he fought the “agents of intolerance” of the religious right; he crusaded against the G.O.P. House leader Tom DeLay, the criminal lobbyist Jack Abramoff and their coterie of influence-peddlers. With the exception of McCain’s imprisonment in Vietnam, every aspect of this profile in courage is inaccurate or defunct."