Clinton 53, Obama 41
Maybe the Quinnipiac people are right about a shift in momentum, but maybe it is what I already suspected when seeing the latest changes in the Gallup daily and the Rasmussen DTP:
it could be another instance of what Mark Blumenthal once called 'Polling on the dark side of the moon?'
How many have taken the opportunity to get away for a few days with the Easter weekend imminent? Won't the majority of them be upper income, better educated people, usually Obama people?
The details given are not really conclusive, but I guess there could be a non-response bias.
Posted on March 18, 2008 11:06 AM
Whatever momentum Obama might have had in PA disappeared about two weeks ago. This new poll shows about the same numbers as Rasmussen and others.
Obama has been reportedly telling his supporters that a loss by 10% or less in PA should be considered a victory, so it looks like his internals are showing the same.
Posted on March 18, 2008 11:15 AM
This is a pretty expected number. As Michele has said PPP, Rasmusen, and others have been at this number for a couple of weeks now with Clinton in the lower 50's and Obama in the upper 30's/lower 40's.
Posted on March 18, 2008 11:28 AM
Michele and Andrew: You're right of course. Other pollsters have similar numbers. My point is about the shift Quinnipiac U. sees. Rasmussen, for example, told us the Clinton advantage was 'little changed' - in fact they had it slightly decreasing from 52-37 to 51-38 on March 13.
Posted on March 18, 2008 12:46 PM
PPP has a similar poll out, showing a huge lead for Clinton, but it shows her only losing the African-American 63-27 to Obama. That margin will almost surely grow in Obama's favor, particularly after we get past this news cycle.
Posted on March 18, 2008 1:14 PM
The Quinnipiac lead is not as large for Cinton as the PPP because half the polling occurred on or before the day the Wright's videos surfaced, while PPP polled only after said date.
Posted on March 19, 2008 2:26 PM
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