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POLL: Quinnipiac FL, PA, OH (4/23-29)


Quinnipiac University

Florida
n=1,411 RV
McCain 44, Obama 43... Clinton 49, McCain 41

Ohio
n=1,127 RV
McCain 43, Obama 42... Clinton 48, McCain 38

Pennsylvania
n=1,494 RV
Obama 47, McCain 38... CLinton 51, McCain 37

 

Comments
BenjaminOMeara:

Am I the only one who is STUNNED that a poll taken during the Wright publicity tour would show Obama TYING with McCain in FLORIDA, a state he has never even campaigned in ?

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BenjaminOMeara:

Am I the only one who is stunned that a poll taken right while Wright was on his publicity tour shows Obama TIED with McCain in Florida, a state he has never campaigned in ?

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mago:

Overall these are very good numbers for the Democrats, esp. taken during the death throes of the nomination contest. I don't expect really useful GE polls till after June 3, when we have one candidate campaigning on GOP talking points instead of two.

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axt113:

No you aren't the only one, I think people need to realize that most polls shown today have yet to take into account Obama's repudiation of Wright, as most polls are taken over 3 days and Obama only repudiated him on tuesday, so the effects probably won't show up until the weekend

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Another Mike:

Wow! These are stunningly good numbers for both Obama and Clinton. As compared to Quinnipiac's prior polls of these states from the last week of March:

Florida: Obama +8, Clinton +6
Ohio: Obama -2, Clinton +1
Pennsylvania: Obama +9, Clinton +6

And, this is coming with the Democrats attacking one another and their supporters becoming increasingly estranged from the other candidate.

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Shadar:

"Am I the only one who is stunned that a poll taken right while Wright was on his publicity tour shows Obama TIED with McCain in Florida, a state he has never campaigned in ?"


As a Florida resident my whole life I can tell you that I am absolutely stunned and I don't quite believe it. If a democrat wins FL in nov I would be shocked. This state is VERY republican these days. Jeb Bush was LOVED here even though he gutted our education system (yet he is known as the education gov) and did very little else good. Charley Christ is now popular as well even though he has done nothing so far (though his numbers are dropping fast).

From just talking to people, from looking at local polling, from looking at past trends, I find it very hard to believe FL will go for either Obama or Hillary. It drives me insane how stupid the voters here are. They complain about everything yet they continue to vote in the same stupid people who caused all the problems. Our state legislature is probably the worst in the entire country, the republican majority can't even get along with themselves and fight over every issue. Reducing education spending and cutting back on infrastructure improvements are the only things they can agree on.

I will say this. If a dem wins FL the dem wins in Nov, period. This will be the hardest general election swing state for dems and should be a solid win for McCain with Christ backing him, if not it will be a blowout of massive proportions in Nov.

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airhawk86:

agree with the last post. The dems should win the general unless they implode, and they have easier paths then Florida. I really think florida is going to McCain in the end, but i dont think it will matter.

Really though we are so far out, general election polls probably dont tell much right now

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Patrick:

The reason these 3 state polls came out as a group is because we all know that these are the 3 states that decide presidential elections nowadays. If a candidate wins 2 of 3 of these states, they will almost certainly win the election (and visa versa). And these polls only confirm conventional wisdom: the demographic makeup of these states strongly favor Clinton over Obama. These polls may have been taken during a "Rev. Wright week", but every week will be "Rev. Wright week" this Fall. The 527's will run Rev. Wright ads (along with "named most liberal Senator", Rezko, Ayers, "inexperience" and "unpatriotic" ads) ad nauseum this Fall. It'll make Willie Horton and Swiftboat look tame in comparison. And those are just the types of ads that proved to be very effective with these demographic groups in 1988, 2000, and 2004. If anything, I think an Obama/McCain matchup would be closer than the poll suggests in PA. (John Kerry only won by a few % pts and his wife has deep ties there). I'm not saying Clinton could necessarily carry these states. But reality is reality; she'd certaily have a better chance. If the superdelegates aren't looking at this data, they aren't doing the job they were created to do.

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Great numbers for the 2 Democratic candidates. Quinnipiac has a great track record in PA, though I'm not sure what to make of their numbers in other states. I forget which site said this, but I read someone argue that as long as elections are taking place, the contested primary doesn't hurt the Dems; it was the 6 week deadspace before PA that was harmful. These numbers seem to buoy that hunch.

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Shadar:

"The reason these 3 state polls came out as a group is because we all know that these are the 3 states that decide presidential elections nowadays. If a candidate wins 2 of 3 of these states, they will almost certainly win the election (and visa versa). And these polls only confirm conventional wisdom:"

What strikes me here is that last bit of the quoted section, "convention wisdom". If we've learned anything in this election cycle it's that convention wisdom is wrong this cycle. Swing states are only swing states until they no longer are. Ohio, FL and Penn have been swing states for many elections, but they didn't used to be swing states. The south used to be extremely strong democratic states, so I'm sure that conventional wisdom was great until all of those states voted republican and continued to do so for 40 years. People will continue to say the south is strong republican until a democrat wins several southern states.

I could see Obama losing FL and Ohio, winning Penn. To counter that loss he will win IA, MN and VA and possibly NC among others. Hillary will win Arkansas, Obama will lose it pretty badly.

I'm frankly sick of this red/blue state country we live in with 3-4 states that decide our president. It's time that we had candidates on both sides who competed in all 50 states, or at least more than 3-4. People may insult Howard Dean for his idealism in his 50 state strategy but I can promise you this, no political party will win somewhere if they don't start competing there. If you want someone to vote for you you have to ask them for their vote.

Ohio/Penn/FL are the swing states of the past. The new swing states will vary based on the candidates involved, which is as it should be. NM, CO, VA, NC, MN, IA, AR, NV, PA, OH, FL, and IN are all up for grabs in this election cycle... and for all we know a few more might be as well. This cycle could rewrite the map because we have a non-traditional republican possibly vs a non-traditional democrat, it will be very interesting and all the old rules need to be thrown out the window because of it.

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