Articles and Analysis


POLL: Quinnipiac Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida

Quinnipiac University

Obama 47, McCain 43

Obama 48, McCain 42

Obama 52, McCain 40



Hot'n'sexy poll numbers for Obama and company.



O.K., let's see:

Ohio: This is the third poll with Obama on top. SurveyUsa has Obama up, PPP has Obama up, and now Quinnipiac. So, I think we can all assume that in fact something bad is going on with McSame and the people of Ohio. Actually, since last Quinnipiac poll from May, Obama gained 8 points and McCain lost 2. Poor McSame!!!

Pennsylvania: Well, I don't think that recent polls showed McCain winning Pennsylvania. That crazy idea was an ilusion of those who supported Hillary and wanted to make Obama look unelectable: Since Hillary won X state or X vote in the primaries, just she and nobody but she can win it in the GE. Since last Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania, Obama gained 6 points and McCain stayed the same. Poor McSame!!!

Florida: I really would like to have more pollster with numbers from Florida. I really like the fact that at least this poll shows movement in Obama's favor, but for the sake of caution I would like to see other polls before making the "happy dance."

Good News!!!!!


Sacks Romana:

The crosstabs are also really impressive for Obama. I mostly looked at Florida's in depth since that's the biggest surprise. Leading 10+ points among women so soon after this primary is really incredible. I didn't even necessarily expect Florida to be in play this season. It's interesting, and I've read similar things before, that voters over 55 have more reservations about McCain's age than voters 35-55.

For Obama to be tied in Florida with a slight edge this far out bodes very very well for him. I think he's going to get an enormous bump nationally and in every state in the country after the Democratic convention and his acceptance speech. I don't think the Republican convention will provide the same energy and excitement to McCain's campaign. I think a modest bump is inevitable, but maybe not sustainable. And I think the more McCain's speeches, words, and policies are examined, the worse he's going to sound. A good percentage of Obama's rhetoric is fluff, but damn does he sound good when he says it.



FL will be hotly in play because of the huge black population and the tendency for a larger percentage of whites (which many are from the more liberal north) to vote democratic vs. the rest of the south.


Mark Lindeman:

Just to point out for people who might not otherwise click through: Quinnipiac asked, ". Would you like Barack Obama to pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice-Presidential running mate or not?" Pluralities in all three states, including pluralities of self-described independent voters, said that he should not. However, in all three states, slightly more people said that picking Clinton would make them more rather than less likely to vote for Obama; independent voters in two of the three states leaned the other way (but majorities in all cases said it made no difference). I'll leave the interpretation to others.

Also, considerable double-digit percentages of voters in all three states said they hadn't heard enough about Obama to say whether their opinion was favorable or unfavorable -- and likewise for McCain. (C'mon, people, whaddya think this is, June?)



Hmmm, why no snark/lies from the likes of posters like Tybo, Ciccina, et al.?

I guess it is hard to spin this one, eh? And Clinton and Obama haven't even appeared together. Wait till Obama sends the Clintons into Florida to get him some more support.

I predicted a landslide early on....and people laughed. Well, it looks like they aren't laughing now. By the way Rupert Murdoch (yes, that one), also predicted a landslide for Obama.



"I really would like to have more pollster with numbers from Florida."

Same here. I can't believe there's not a poll a day coming out from Florida considering the number of polling companies out there. It's the biggest state with even a remote chance of flipping. It should be important enough to be polled constantly.

That said, if these numbers are accurate, Obama has to be seen as having a massive, massive lead over McCain. Obama winning by 100 EC votes is more likely than McCain just coming close.




Unexpected but very welcome! A four point lead in Florida? Obama definitely does not need to win Florida (considering the other states he's leading in or are at least in play), but the fact that he's doing this well, even at such an early stage, is a very, very good sign.

Definitely eradicates the HRC-primary-win argument, particularly in PA.




Even though it is still June, I too predicted a substantial victory for Obama many months ago. Everyone laughed at me. Despite the closeness of the national polls, the historical advantages working against McCain are going to be much too difficult to overcome. Add that to Obama being the single most charismatic candidate in a half century, and there is just absolutely no chance for it to be close. We all think its going to be close because THE MEDIA WANTS US TO. They lose ratings if it's a blowout.

Just for historical reference, In 1996 Bill Clinton won the electoral college by 210 votes, but only won the pop vote by ~9%. I'd say a 5-7% lead in the national polls right now for Obama is right in line with that.

P.s. those florida numbers actually made me verbally cheer to myself this morning when i first saw them. wow.



Finally it seems like sanity will reign. Regardless of how people feel personally about the big O, nice to see we care about the men and women, that have willingly put themselves into harms way and asked nothing of us in return. Finally we stand up for them!!
Great news in this poll is his margin with women, that?s the obvious better demographic to have a lead in since they will be 55% on average of the electorate. If this keeps up (and I know that we are only in June) with optimistic caution I say Blowout

@ Mike_in_CA
I remember your prediction and chuckled back then?. I will happily say the jokes on me. However a win is a win... if he wins by 1 electoral vote great, blow out then it says something about the country and the ?change? that has taken place in attitudes and focus?so while I was somewhat proud 4 years ago, I am super proud today



How do these polls account for the "Bradley effect"? This might be particularly strong in Ohio and Pa, meaning that Obama would need a very substantial lead to hold on in the end.




Exactly. They have been feeding us bs story after bs story, repeating retarded lanny davis lines like they were fact. They strung out the primary season when it was over back in February - for what? You got it, to increase ratings and thereby increase $. It's always about that in the end isn't it? F truth, F logic and reason. What has journalism come to these days? I have to go to dailykos.com for facts and rational interpretation? The mainstream media is a joke.

No one bothered to ask:

Why would people voting for Clinton switch to someone who has opposite policy positions?

Why would people support a guy who has the same policies as a president with a 28% approval rating?

Unreal. The writing wasn't just on the wall, it was chiseled in the wall.

I just hope this latest rush doesn't make Obama supporters relax - we need everyone to be out in full force come Fall.



That idea of the Bradley Effect is just nonsense. I've checked each state in the primary and didn't see any indication of people lying to the pollster by saying that they will support Barack and then voting for Hillary.

Barack's numbers the day of the vote were never significantly lower than the polls showed. Most of the time they were higher than polls had predicted. So, were people lying to the pollster about supporting him but not doing it at the voting booth? I don't think so. What happens is that people in the media get so obsessed with changes in the spread that they don't pay attention as to where the movement is coming from.

Pay attention to McSame's numbers in national polls and see that since the beginning he seems stuck at the low 40's. Obama's numbers fluctuate, but McCain doesn't benefit from it. People move from Obama to undecided, but for some reason not to McCain. The Bradley Effect is something that has been argued over and over in the media to the point that the they were predicting that Harold Ford Jr. race for the senate in 2006 will be a proof of it. The day came and the results at the polls were as tight as the polls had shown. But, we can keep talking about it.



ARG has a new poll from Florida with Obama up as well. What about New Hampshire? Obama up too. I think this is the second poll with Obama up in NH.



Florida, Florida, Florida,

This does not yet reflect the latest controversy about offshore drilling - which is about as popular in Florida as the Red Tide.

With JMC sucking up to big oil in Houston - he may have just tossed BHO the nicest, biggest slowball of the game.

You'd think the 'Publicans would listen to the Bush brother who got daddy's brains and who knows something about Florida. But the current gov is having such hard dreams about being VP - he'd never bother JMC with a little bit of realistic advice, like: "Offshore drilling is a guaranteed 60-point loser with Florida indies."

Instead, JMC flips his biggest flop on the environment - aligns himself with the brainless Bush brother - and tosses away the biggest prize amont the swing states.



Reality check... Rasmussen Poll for 6/18 Ohio: McCain 44% to Obama 43%.


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