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POLL: Rasmussen Florida (7/22)


Rasmussen Reports
7/22/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
Mode: IVR

Florida
Obama 49, McCain 47

 

Comments
carl29:

I need to see other polls. Too bad that Rasmussen doesn't show party ID and demographic composition. I will wait to see what Quinnipiac and the others say. In Florida, I think McCain has the edge, unless things had changed, which I really, really wish.

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sherman:

This is a big deal. I was skeptical Florida would be so close for Obama, much less give him an advantage. I've always considered Rasmussen the most trustworthy of pollsters even though I grated at some of their results. If this holds, McCain has no chance. But it's a long way to November. Interesting responses regarding the offshore drilling. Looks like $4.00 gas changes everyone's minds. I say...drill offshore if that's what Floridians want. Just don't whine if a tanker crashes off the coast and ruins your beaches for years.

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Allen:

Advocating offshore drilling in has historically been political suicide in Florida. It might still be this year.

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onelightonvoice:

again, I haven't ever really trusted rass due to their robocalling and other dubious methods. look for the cross-tabs to see how real this may or may not be.

I'd rather see susa/quinn or some other respectable pollster do a large sample size in florida.

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Paul:

Pollster.com now shows FL trend at McCain +0.8. The three prior Rasmussen FL polls had McCain +10, +8 and +7. So this poll deviates significantly from the prior polls. Without this poll, 538 projects FL as McCain +3 and leaning GOP --- we need the 538 update on FL which will include this poll. RCP (which includes this poll) has the presidential race as dead even and a toss-up state, although when forced to select a state, RCP gives FL to GOP. This poll is good news for Obama. Conventional wisdom said FL was a GOP state, and it still may be, but McCain is going to have spend resources there and/or select his VP from FL or a neighboring state. Senator Clinton may also have a role in FL to boost the senior and Hispanic vote. FL does look too close to call at this point.

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Andrew_in_California:

Well the fact this poll is so close may be the beginnings of the so called political suicide in action.

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carl29:

Oh dear Paul: You are putting your hopes on the wrong place, my friend. The hispanics that live in Florida are Cubans and Cubans are overwhelmingly Republican. The hispanics in Florida are not the same as the ones in New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, California, Texas or any other state in the nation. Bottom line: These people suck!!!!

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carl29:

Obviously I live in Miami and I am not Cuban. Actually, one more Cuban and I throw up. Can't stand them anymore!!!

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Allen:

election-projection.net has McCain still ahead in Florida
http://election-projection.net/08PresGE-FL.html

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Uri:

@carl29: Should you watch the Obama speech on race again ? :)

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carl29:

I have nothing against hispanics since I am a proud hispanic myself. The reason non-cuban hispanics, AAs and white Americans cannot stand Cubans in Miami is because these are most corrupt, arrogant, racist people on the entire state of Florida. Cubans believe they are the royalty of Miami and anybody here, including Anglos, must kiss their buttocks. The great majority of non-cuban hispanics here in Miami don't stand Cubans at all and you cannot accusse us of racism.

Cubans are the perfect bullies in the playground. They treath people who disagrees with them. They blackmail people who they don't like. They look down on the rest of hispanics from other countries. At each and every level of the government in Dade county, there are cubans engaging in corruption, proven in the courts. Many people have left Miami because of Cubans.

It is obvious that you don't know anything about cubans or Miami's flokore for that matter. Look at the statistic regarding fraud against Medicare, fraud against Insurance cars, fraud with credit cards, and the capital of all that is Miami, and the masterminders are Cubans. Need more information about my little "macondo"?

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carl29:

Maybe this helps to clear the picture:

Miami: Medicare fraud capital in the nation

"Only some of the most populous states in the country including California, Texas, New York, Michigan, and Ohio billed Medicare for more than Miami-Dade County. According to that same data, an average Medicare patient in Miami-Dade County allegedly receives $6,200 worth of DME every year based on paid amounts; whereas patients throughout the rest of the United States average approximately $1,200 per year."

Here are some of the defendants:
1) Luis Soto, 41, sentenced to 87 months in prison
2) Noel Rodriguez, 50, sentenced to 51 months in prison
3) Rosabel Gonzalez, 32,
4) Christian Vasquez, the named owner of Tamiami Medical Supply, Inc
5) Maria De La Serna, 55, sentenced to 19 months in prison
6) Ariel Betancourt, 35, the named owner of Lincoln Medical Supply
7) Jose Prieto, 58, sentenced to 41 months in prison
8) Armando Jorge Herrera, 27,
9) Reinaldo Lopez, 40, the owner and operator of Reny Medical Equipment

After a five week trial in Miami, the jury found Maria T. Hernandez (Mayte), 50, Marta F. Jimenez, 67, Maivi Rodriguez, 34, and Ana Caos, M.D., 62, guilty on all charged counts.

If you see all those names are hispanics, but cuban-hispanics. It is a shame that they rip off US taxpayers, us, and then non-hispanic people think that we are all the same. That is not the case, Cubans have corrupt political traditions that the rest of latin Americans don't have.

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Undecided:

Wow... stereotyping Cubans and worse. That kind of ranting has no place on this website.

FYI... There are also many many Puerto Ricans in Florida who happen to love the Clintons.

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Undecided:

Regarding offshore drilling... This poll shows 57% in favor.

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carl29:

Puerto Ricans are democrat, period. Clinton or not clinton Puerto Ricans just like Mexican vote democrat.

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carl29:

Guys, don't try to teach a latino about how latinos think. Remember all the sillines in this website about how hispanics will fly to McCain if Barack was the democratic nominee. I remember how I was the only one who kept on repeating over and over like a preacher that hispanics, except Cubans, are democrats and especially in this economy they will look for shelter in the democratic party, supporting whoever she or he maybe.

I remember how so many "hispanic experts" were " lecturing" me about my people. Well, it took poll after poll to show that I was right indeed. Hispanics are behind the democratic nominee because the democratic party is their home. Quick facts: Puerto Ricans are even more democratic than Mexicans. There is no doubt that all the "boricuas" will as always be behind the democratic nominee, who happens to be Barack Obama.

Do Boricuas, Puerto Ricans for the gringos, are more democratic than Mexicans? Well, In New York where the biggest Puerto Rican colony lives, 75% support the democratic nominee in 2004. California where the biggest colony of Mexicans live 63% supported the democratic nominee. Please guys, lecture me about you, but please don't make a fool of yourself by teaching me about hispanics when you are obviously far from being an expert on the subject.


From The Washington Post:

"Angelo Falcon, a senior policy analyst for the Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund in New York, said the movement of Puerto Ricans, who tend to vote for Democrats, could "offset the Cuban vote," which almost uniformly has gone to conservatives who promise to continue isolating the communist government of Fidel Castro."

"The Cubans have dominated the local political scene for so long, and are clearly the most powerful group," Estrada said. "But other [Latino] groups are bent differently. They want people to stop talking about Cuba and start talking about issues."

"The further you are from Dade County and Miami, the stronger the anti-Cuban sentiment. By the time you get to Tallahassee, you hear people say, 'Don't believe what you hear in South Florida.' "

The tensions between Cubans and non-cuban hispancis are very, very real and is driving hispanics in Florida away from the republican party because its association with Cubans in Miami.

P.S: There are some theories as to why puerto ricans are so democratic, and it has to do with government assistance.

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Undecided:

Puerto Ricans are NOT just like the Mexican vote. Most notably, Puerto Ricans are all U.S. citizens and are not that tuned into the immigration issues like most Mexican-Americans are. Puerto Ricans are indeed considered Latino because of their culture and language, but one should realize that they are of many races/ethnicities (European, African, Amerindian, Asian, mixed).

Did you forget the overwhelming turnout for the Clintons in PR and Hillary's overwhelming win in the Democratic primary (Clinton 68%-Obama 32%)? The Clintons earned a lot of good will during Bill's presidency especially after Hurricane Georges. And notably the largest PR population on the mainland is in the Senator's state of New York. It is fair to say that many PRs love the Clintons and not just because they usually vote Democrat.


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illinoisindie:

@undecided 10:20 pm
Why are we still talking about the Clintons?? If you hadnt noticed Barack Obama or John McCain will be the president come november. Or maybe we will all end up in an episode of the twilight zone and its President Ralph Nader. Let me guess you're on of those PUMA people...

Now on to the Poll:
IMHO this poll represents the worst week for the MCCain campaign so far, the whole foreign trip backfired on the Mc Cain camp. I do agree with an earlier post that while Obama should force Mcain to defend what should already be his in FL... he should shore up his support in Ohio. An Ohio wins almost guarantees a win for team democrat.

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Undecided:

I am not aware of anyone lecturing... but instead I pointed out that certain comments about Cubans (i.e. corrupt) and now Puerto Ricans (i.e. government assistance) are not factual but rather are false assumptions based on stereotypes. I really do not see how being latino (a very large general category) would afford someone the power of knowing how all latinos think. It is like saying that the Hopi and the Navajo agree on everything... and in fact they agree on very little... yet they may both vote primarily Democrat.

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Undecided:

The Clintons were only a reference point to gauge the Puerto Rican vote in Florida. Whereas, the GOP has made headway there with the PRs starting with Jeb Bush. One should not take for granted that Floridian PRs will automatically vote for Obama whom they do not know very well just because he is a Democrat.

No, I am not a PUMA. It is okay to debate ideas, but it is immature (and uncivil) to personally target other posters.

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Undecided:

I do not see how this poll reflects the McCain campaign struggle this week with the media focused on Obama's overseas trip. In fact, 55% think that reporters are trying to help Obama.

Also this poll shows McCain's favorability ratings increased to 60%. Bottom line....McCain has not dropped in the poll from last month, but rather Obama has gained in both the poll and his favorability rating (51% up from 44%).

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carl29:

Talking about how Puerto Ricans are with an obvious expert like Undecided is just none sense. The first sign of an ignorant person is that they talk as if they knew. My husband always says: "I rather pass for a dumb by not talking than openning my mouth and leaving no doubt" or "they are so ignorant that they don't realize that they don't know."

You could remember how everytime Hillary won the latino vote, dumb people in this site would say: "Obama is lost in Nov. because those latinos are going to McCain if Hillary is not the nominee." I always said NO. They are picking Hillary over Barack, two democrats, but they are not going to pick the rep. over the dem. So, talking about how Hillary won the Puerto Rican vote is like talking how Hillary won the Mexican vote. In both cases Hillary won by the same margin: In California Hillary won hispanics, most of them Mexicans, 67% vs. 32%. Is Obama losing California? Umm...I don't think so.

The fact that Mexicans voted for Arnold, the governator, doesn't mean that they would vote for the Republican nominee for president. Democratic states have republican governors or very republican states have democratic governors. Those things don't carry over. Jeb Bush is such an spectacular politian, even my husband the left-wing, Boston liberal says that he could vote for him for president. Jeb speaks spanish beautifully, his wife is Mexican, and he is very, very charismatic. Did my husband vote for Jeb for governor? Yes, Would he vote for Jeb for president? I don't know, but he really likes him to be honest.

Proof that Undecided doesn't know anything about hispanics:
"Puerto Ricans are indeed considered Latino because of their culture and language, but one should realize that they are of many races/ethnicities (European, African, Amerindian, Asian, mixed)."

Now, about Puerto Rico being racially mixed, I got news for you: All latinamerican countries are mixed. In each and every one there are all races and ethnicities. That has nothing to do with Puerto Rico, but with LatinAmerica. We are the most racially mixed people you can come across with.

For example, In my country, Nicaragua, there are blonde, blue eye people of German decendent. This people live in Matagalpa and Esteli. There are people of African, British, Chinesse descendent who speak broken English and live in the Atlantic Coast, think of Blueffields. There are people with Spanish descendent and Arab descendt who live all around the country, think of Nicaraguans like me, my father's mother was from Spain and her father was Lebanese descendent, think of people like Shakira and Salma Hayek, but of course they are NOT Nicaraguans. There are people of Italians descendents like Gioconda Belli, Pellas, Mantica. And I'm just talking about Nicaragua!!! Welcome to the Latino World!!

P.S: My husband says that Latin America is the paradise on Earth. For him there is nothing like the women of latin America. Although he thinks that here, in the U.S., don't live the most beautiful ones. We always joke that if you want to see the prettiest latinas you have to travel because we don't "export" those beauties. That's what he did!! I met him while he was teaching at an American University in my country.

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carl29:

Let me tell you a little "joke": Once I was filling out some papers and my mom was with me. In the race category I checked off hispanic, of course. Then, my mom, who lives in Nicaragua, and doesn't understand "a potato" about the US, asked me what is that "hispanic race"? I said: "Mom, that is a race that only exist in the United States. I didn't have an idea I was part of it until I moved there."

There is not such thing as "hispanic race." We are black hispanics, european hispanics, chinesse hispanics, arab hispanics, there are of course native hispanics, "Indios". Some of us have caribbean culture, some of us have european culture, some of us have chinesse culture. Regardless of what some "Americans" believe, I don't think that they understand the complexity of latin Americans. The more they talk about us, the more we find out that they don't know us. We are a totally new world, very proud of our heritage. I always remind my kids that they are half Nicaraguans, and they should be very proud of being "latinitos," little latinos.

P.S: And we haven't talked about Brazilians!!!

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carl29:

Here it is a fantastic poll that just came out:

Poll: Obama holds a commanding lead among Hispanics

The poll of 2,015 Latino voters conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center found that Democrat Barack Obama, who lost the Hispanic vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 2-to-1 in the Democratic primary, holds a commanding 66 percent to 23 percent lead over Republican presidential candidate John McCain.

The Illinois Democrat is running far ahead among Mexican-Americans, who cast about 40 percent of their ballots for George W. Bush in 2004. Among voters of Mexican ancestry, Obama leads McCain, 70 percent to 21 percent

Obama is running so far ahead that he has the support of 25 percent of Hispanics who identify themselves as Republicans and holds an edge of about 5-to-1 among Latinos who consider themselves political independents.

That Democratic edge has nearly doubled in the past two years, from a 49 percent to 28 percent edge in 2006 to today's 65 percent to 26 percent advantage.

Obama leads McCain among all issues in the Hispanic community. On immigration, the Democrat has a huge advantage -- even though his rival from Arizona has a liberal record on immigration -- 59 percent to 19 percent. Half of Latinos say Obama would be better for immigrants, while just 12 percent say McCain would help immigrants more.

On the war in Iraq, Latinos trust Obama more to handle it, 58 percent to 27 percent -- dashing Republicans' hopes to appeal to the "patriotism factor" in Hispanic Americans. And on jobs, Hispanics prefer Obama, 65 percent to 19 percent

McCain cannot gain traction even among the wealthiest Hispanics, who lean to Obama by about 2-to-1. Latinos earning under $30,000 are even more strongly for the Democrat, 68 percent to 18 percent.


P.S: LISTEN UP GUYS!!!!
According to Hispanic Pew Research:

The most strongly Democratic group based on location of origin remains Puerto Ricans, who favor Obama, 73 percent to 14 percent.

Please learn about "hispanics" before you open your little mouth. In Spanish we have a saying, "Zapatero a tu Zapato."

Oh..well, Undecided please keep on enlighting me about latinos.

Here is the link to the poll
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5905184.html

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carl29:

Guys, I said it. You don't know about us, but the one thing I like is when people ask me about latinos. There is nothing wiser than someone who doesn't know but looks for someone who does. Believe me, every time that someone asks me about hispanics, I really feel very proud of being a kind of embassador of my "people" before you. I really think that reflects a lot of respect for our culture.

If you read the above entries, you will find that yesterday at 11:46 p.m I said: "Quick facts: Puerto Ricans are even more democratic than Mexicans. There is no doubt that all the 'boricuas' will as always be behind the democratic nominee, who happens to be Barack Obama."

Well, my insight about hispanics was refute by an expert name Mr. or Ms. Undecided who said: "The Clintons were only a reference point to gauge the Puerto Rican vote in Florida. Whereas, the GOP has made headway there with the PRs starting with Jeb Bush. One should not take for granted that Floridian PRs will automatically vote for Obama whom they do not know very well just because he is a Democrat."

Well, here is come an "neophyte" in hispanic issues, the Hispanic Pew Research stating that: "The most strongly Democratic group based on location of origin remains Puerto Ricans, who favor Obama, 73 percent to 14 percent."

Please Undecided educate the Hispanic Pew Research and all hispanics about hispanics. What part of the hispanic culture don't we understand? Please Undecided teach me about. I'm so wrong that I don't know how can I call myself a latina. You are such an expert!!!


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carl29:

Listen Pew Research you better start educating yourself about hispanics. Let Undecided show you how hispanics think!!!! C'mon, Undecided is an expert on hispanic politics he has never been wrong about hispanics. Undecided reminds me of Nickberry in a great way!!! Two experts on hispanic issues, behavior, culture, a voting record. Welcome to the Undecided Hispanic Research Institute!!!!

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JCC:

For those whom think McCain has Florida in the bag...you may want to chew on this.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-voters1208jul12,0,466937.story

There is a huge grass roots ground game going on in Fla. from the Dems...especially the Obama camp. The GOP should be shaking their knees right now.

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