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POLL: Rasmussen New Hampshire


Rasmussen Reports

New Hampshire
Obama 48, McCain 43... Clinton 51, McCain 41
Sen: Shaheen 50, Sununu 43

 

Comments

Interesting,
I wonder if this is showing some effect from McCain's close alignment with Bush's foreign policy. Maybe New Hampshire independents are turning on McCain.

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Andrew_in_California:

I wonder how polling projections have changed in New Hampshire post the primary. Are they better or worse? Or the same?

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Adam_Il:

The trend continues-Hillary is proving to be a much stronger general election candidate than Obama.

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Andrew_in_California:

Considering this poll is in the margin of error of Hillary's numbers it would be hard to make that conclusion based off of this poll.

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Progny:

Obama is still not performing at Clinton's level among Democrats which producing results like this in state after state where she leads him by a couple points in a match-up with McCain. New Hampshire is no different.

What is also consistent however is that Obama's numbers are better among Independents than Clinton's, often in terms of the vote, and always in terms of personal favorability.

If at the beginning of a campaign I go to choose whether I needed to secure my candidate's base or persuade Independents, I'd choose securing the in a heartbeat. Obama's numbers have more potential for growth than Clinton's and will rise once the primary is settled.

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Patrick:

Progny is exactly wrong, at least for this election cycle. The Republicans have nominated the candidate that has always appealed very strongly to Independents and moderates. So the Democrats should select the candidate that has gotten the most votes from actual Democrats and the candidate that is more likely to win the big swing states (esp. PA, OH, and FL which by have decided the last several presidential elections). On both counts, that is Clinton. In light of all these polls, I predict the Democratic leaders are going to pressure Obama strongly to offer the VP slot to Clinton. They will see that he is more likely to lose to McCain if he doesn't.

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Andrew_in_California:

McCain ran in 2000 and Bush appealed more to Conservatives rather than Independents. The problem was that Gore was not enticing to independents. Democratic leaders have no say on Obama's VP and have kept quiet about it since the initial rumors back in late Feb/March. The gracefulness of Hillary exiting will be important though and I do think she would end up being an excellent VP given how she's marketed herself.

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Progny:

I would point out that Obama got the most votes among Democratic primary voters. It's just that some are holding out in general election polls.

The polling disparity comes from Obama having less support among Democrats in general election match-ups -- specifically, the "Clinton but Not Obama" Democrats because of the bitter and protracted primary battle. But, those people are not immovable blocs, and most will support Obama by the time November rolls around. Again, much easier to secure the base.

If you think that assertion is untrue of unlikely to happen, fine, then your point could be justified -- but I would also suspect you don't have much campaign experience.

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Andrew_in_California:

Well historically it is untrue. Kennedy was not on Carter's ticket, it was Mondale after the bitter struggle for the nomination. The pressure of party officials is without weight like Howard Dean pressuring super delegates to vote before May 1st.

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