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POLL: Rasmussen North Carolina (8/13)


Rasmussen Reports
8/13/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
Mode: IVR

North Carolina
McCain 50, Obama 44
(July: McCain 48, Obama 45)

Gov:
Perdue (D) 51, McCrory (R) 45
(June: Perdue 47, McCrory 46)

 

Comments
thoughtful:

Richardson will need to shave his beard off!
There is still money going on Wes Clark!
Depends if they want an attack dog!
Bayh does fit in terms of geo and background, I like him, as a candidate and an intellect a lot more than Biden.

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Stillow:

NC should be safe for McCain. I saw an Obama talking head who admitted even there own internals didn't look to appealing in NC....pollster moving it to pink was correct, MO and FL should follow going pink. This election will be fought in CO, VA and OH. All went red last time, so in a close race or tie one would think to give the slight edge to McCain....

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boskop:

biden is out because of the on going investigation of his son and brother in securities fraud.

biden would also validate mccain's age. nope, biden's out though he was always my fav.

bayh hasn't got the international muscle obama needs especially now. i'm still putting money down on richardson. obama wants a convention surprise to carry him a nice bounce.

richardson is that except for his hillary turncoat-ism. but who remembers?

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Stillow:

Clinton supporters do, especially women.

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thoughtful:

@boskop Maybe I am under rating the international thing. I don't think most US voters are going to be moved by that. They might be if they think McCain is going to take the US to war.

Mike Bloomberg is still a dark horse, but best of the outsiders. Could help in Florida, Wahington outsider, gets the job done knows how the economy works.

Obama sees himself more as a vision guy who surrounds himself with executive expertise.

With regards NC it requires a 18-29 and AA turnout i haven't looked at crosstabs etc though.

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Stillow:

Bloomberg is itneresting, I actually think he'd take VP for eitherBO or JM....Depends on who asked him first....plus his billions of dollars wouldn't hurt on the campaign trail!!

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marctx:

boskop: I remember...I'm Hispanic and he will be Judas Richardson to me forever.

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thoughtful:

If McCain is getting grief on Tom Ridge from the Social Conservatives - the Republican Party would ............. if Bloomberg was the GOP pick.

This what the polls are telling us:

Obama is never going to out McCain McCain on national security. Ergo Let McCain be a warrior.

The middle ground of the uncommitted electorate cares more about the economy and energy.

The election will be won by the candidate who puts forward the best economic perception or by default.

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player:

Maybe Barack will choose his wife Michele, and they can run as a tag team.Perhaps I was just thinking of that cartoon on the cover of the New Yorker. Hey, my guess is just as good as anyones on here.

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Edward:

These unfavorables are getting pretty bad for Obama, and if there looking these way in other key battleground states it will not be a long election night at all.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

I think national security issues trump domestic issues for most people. Not minor issues, but major international issues liek the prospect of another Cold War, or the prospect of Russia gobbling up the eastern block again. The best economy inthe world is useless if you cannot defend it and/or defend your partners aroudn the world. Russia learned from it smistakes in the past....There's a reason they want Georgia. They need it first because of the pipeline to Europe. If Russia decides to move on other former satelites and Europe or NATO dare to intervene, Russia can stop the flow of energy. In addition, the soviets were bankrupt, Russia has been selling oil at high prices to the world and has built up cash, they have funds now to do what they wish. If Russia begins a campaign of expansionism, the US will have no choice but to intervene and yes, it very well could be Cold War II. This is a big mesh of economics, military ops and political swaggering. Obama wouldn't handle it well.
This can get real bad, real quick.

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boskop:

the "very unfavorables" have been consistently awful for obama and holding steady at around 39% and well beyond anything of the same for mccain. so yes, this is distinctly troubling.

i@player
i do indeed believe michele if offered the job will accept. she is hillary clinton in every step of the way. no wonder michele hates her doppleganger. who wouldn't?

marc in texas... i love your judas richardson. hey, imagine james carville having to swallow his disgust and back this turd?

but i think it's where he's heading. you have to realize that obama's ego will make the decision: and if he fails to comprehend the female wrath which he is most likely to do "(you're likable enough hillary) you can count on his finally choking on his dense ambition.

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boskop:

@boskoprapedmycat

was banned from this site for the blatant and gross name calling that is still going on even though he/she/it reversed the letters. ignore the creep.

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axt113:

poll is flawed, more than half sampled said Bush is doing a fair to excellent job, either people in NC are massive fools or Rasmussen's sample is skewed

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

I thought you guys were pollsters!

Show me any recent poll that puts national security as far as the Russians are concerned at the top!

Unless you are polling in the defense industries.

McCain has got closer in the polls on a % buying the drill here and now. On the tax biz.

With regards to the Geo-political there are a number of Oil and Gas pipelines from Russia to Europe.

The pipeline through Georgia is Abzeri to Turkey (through Georgia) nothing to do with Russians and I don't see Russians tanks there.

Georgia was stupid enough to attack South Ossetia.

The US government was played as suckers by Chalabi and the other Iraqi exiles into a war, why not make the same mistake again with the Georgians who would love to have US investment and NATO protection in their front line country in the circumstances of a cold war, lets hope it doesn't spark a hot one.

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

I meant if national security becomes the dominant issue, McCain will win....the Russian conflict would have to worsen, but Putin is no fool. He would much rather have Obama in office than McCain if he is really wanting to take over more of the eastern block. I think nearly everyone would admit, even Obama supporters that he is much more likely to back down and appease than the draw a line i nthe sand. I don't even think its debatable who people prefer if national security became a huge issue, I think the GOP beats the dems even on a generic level on that issue, one of thew they do.
This issue is ust to complex to discuss in this format, so many theories on what Russia objective is. Putin is an old school communist...you can't teach and old dog new tricks, so maybe he only knows his old tricks?

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thoughtful:

Gallup Tracker 44% even - 6 % in two days is a trend.

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Patrick:

North Carolina will go red, like it always does. In fact, I'm predicting almost exactly the same electoral map this year as we had 4 years ago. When people start really paying attention to what the candidates are saying (after Labor Day), those red states that are now pink or yellow will slowly move back to red. Just watch. The McCain campaign has done a very good job so far in getting Independents and Reagan Democrats to start questioning Obama's substance (i.e. his actual record and policy ideas) and people are starting to question whether he really does have the experience a president needs in this day and age. And the Republican machine hasn't even started the Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, and patriotism ads yet. Plus McCain has the advantage of selecting his VP after Obama. So if Obama selects a run-of-the-mill white guy like Bayh or Biden, McCain can select someone 'exciting' like a woman (e.g. Connie Rice, Kay Hutchison, or the former CEO or HP) or a someone from a particular demographic group (e.g. Lieberman or an Hispanic). In a tight race (in a polarized country), that alone could end up getting McCain elected. Just imagine how Hillary's HALF+ of the Democratic primary voters are going to feel if Obama selects Biden or Bayh and McCain selects a smart woman!

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marctx:

boskop:

No. I can't imagine Jimmy C. having to do that or the Clintons. I think them clearly taking over the conventions is her first appearance for the 2012 election.

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mrut:

@Thoughtful

You are right. I keep up with foreign policy matters but the average American could not tell South Ossetia from hole in the ground. As soon as Georgia turned out not to be OUR Georgia, Americans stopped paying attention to the coverage (sigh).

This election will be won by the party that inspires greater confidence in solving economic and energy problems, which--sorry, John McCain--they do not connect with the oil pipeline in south-central Georgia that (after all) supplies the Europeans, not us. Oil is fungible, and whether or not the Georgians are collecting rental fees on their part of the pipeline is immaterial to Americans.

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Edward:

Please Please Mr. Obama keep on spending over $5 Million on TV Ad's here in NC while McCain spend's nothing and just laughs as he watches you throw your money away. Obama is a fool if he keeps spending cash in my state, it will go for McCain come November, but please keep wasting your money Mr. Obama!

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Paul:

This is a good poll for McCain. A 6 point win in NC, with the projected difference with Virginia of 4 points, would project a McCain win in Virginia as well. Without Virginia, the most likely way for Obama to win is as follows: all Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico = 264 electoral votes + Ohio (20) or Colorado (9).

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