8/7/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 52, McCain 42
(July: Obama 49, McCain 40)
Sen: Smith (R-i) 50, Merkley (D) 44
(July: Smith 46, Merkley 46)
i dont follow oregon much. could someone kindly explain how oregon will tilt if the republican guy is pulling way out ahead now?
what's his deal? moderate, extreme...
Posted on August 11, 2008 3:42 PM
Smith could be considered moderate. He's in the Collins/Snowe class of Senators. I believe he recently ran an ad touting work that he's done with Obama. In the last year or so he's been pretty vocal in his opposition to the Bush admin's Iraq policy. In other words, he's running away from the GOP and McCain, probably a smart move on his part. (FYI - He's a cousin of the Democratic Udall brothers, who are both looking good in their respective Senate races in CO and NM.)
Posted on August 11, 2008 3:50 PM
Smith is about the most moderate of all Republican Senators at this time, and he has even notably featured Obama in one of his ads. Smith was the first Republican following the 2006 midterm to come out strongly against the Iraq war (after voting for it of course). He knew this would be a hard race and so he jumped immediately to start distancing himself from the Republicans on the war.
The big question is going to be whether being the most moderate Republican is enough to hang on to a seat in Oregon. This is going to be somewhat like Chafee/Whitehouse, however Oregon is far less Democrat-dominated than Rhode Island. Like Chafee, there is not much real angst with Smith. Smith also has to contend with not getting the staunch Republican turnout due to his moderate stances, and this may be further effected by Oregon not being a state that is in play. Of course being that this poll is from Rasmussen, the numbers for Obama when they come out might well swing towards McCain, but no one is really talking about this state being in play this cycle.
Posted on August 11, 2008 3:58 PM
Well... Oregon is not dark blue anymore on the Pollster map and is also light blue on the RCP map. Purple on 538 with Obama 83%/McCain 17%.
Senator Smith is now endorsed by all 9 Oregon Indian tribes who usually vote Democrat. Smith has been forward thinking on Native American rights as well as salmon survival.
Regarding Obama... Oregon does not have a large African American vote (not even close to Seattle's numbers)... so Obama needs to look elsewhere.
PNW History (Not to trivial trivia): Oregon Territory and then Oregon State once outlawed blacks from owning, leasing, or renting. Their goal was to be an all-white state, ergo their prohibition of slavery. They wanted no blacks in Oregon for any purpose. The first black settler (ironically named George Washington Bush)to come over the Oregon Trail was forced to settle in Washington Territory and therefore was one of the first non-Indian settlers there. G.W. Bush was a doctor and a medaled war hero, and his wife a nurse.
Regarding GOP turnout... One only needs to look for ballot initiatives to find the incentive for voter turnout. For example in Oregon: An initiative limiting bilingual education.
Posted on August 11, 2008 5:52 PM
Sure, the 1.4% Native American population of Oregon is going to swing the senate election to Smith...and the fact that there is a 1.9% black population that will likely vote 90% for Merkley doesn't matter at all. Makes a ton of sense.
Thanks for the facts.
Posted on August 11, 2008 6:14 PM
Well the benefit of Indian tribes in Oregon supporting any candidate is that most of them now have funds to support their preferences. As well as the fact that being Indian-friendly and salmon-friendly is a positive PNW stance for candidates.
Why would that many African-Americans vote for Merkley? He is not black, just a white guy Democrat.
Posted on August 11, 2008 6:27 PM
This is another Obama must win state. This poll at Obama +10 is consistent with 538 projection at Obama +6.5
Posted on August 11, 2008 7:14 PM
In recent elections, over 85% AA's vote for democrats, and Obama's candidacy will likely only increase the percentage all across the tickets this cycle. There is no mystery to this at all.
And as far as the Native American vote, that has traditionally been the Democrats second strongest racial group, albeit much smaller than the AA vote. Despite the support of tribal elders in Oregon, it won't likely change the votes of the general NA population. Regarding money, there's hardly a tribe that in this country that can spare anything but token cash since despite increases in revenue from gambling in many places, there is still widespread unemployment, lack of access to running water, plumbing, electricity and communications, and major issues with substance abuse. Native Americans have been 'left out' to a far greater extent than even African Americans, and it's a shame that tribes have had to turn to gambling in order to attempt to make up the difference.
Smith is probably a decent guy. I've never heard anything bad about him. If he should win, he should switch parties :)
Posted on August 11, 2008 7:46 PM
You don't know too much about Indian Country do you? First it is not tribal "elders" but rather tribal "leaders" who endorsed Smith. Second, the Oregon Indian tribes, e.g. the Grande Rhonde, Warm Springs, Umatilla have successful casinos and tourism projects. Third, they support Smith to preserve and even increase their tribal rights to further their economic progress.
No shame in "gambling" among Native Americans... in almost all Indian cultures gambling is traditional entertainment and socialization.
Also note that Smith is the incumbent. Why change parties?
Posted on August 11, 2008 10:13 PM
You got me, I wasn't aware that running casino's with slot machines, black jack and baccarat was "traditional entertainment and socialization". They must be a proud people.
But in all honesty, it's a shame that any tribe has to turn to gambling in order to fight poverty and oppression.
Posted on August 12, 2008 6:38 AM
Obama getting 90% of the black vote doens't have that much to do with him being black; any democrat running for president would get 90% of the black vote. Especially after Katrina etc.
Posted on August 12, 2008 10:32 AM
This state on these numbers loks dark blue and i can see why it is considered still as a lean?
Posted on August 12, 2008 11:17 AM
Repeat: I can not understand why this is a light blue state. The best McCain has ever got in any poll is within 3 points of Obama and most of the others are double digit leads to Obama. The state should be dark blue, should it not?
Posted on August 12, 2008 11:22 AM
Good brambster... denigrate Native Americans with your sarcasm and stereotypes.
Have you ever heard of "stick games?" A betting game that goes back many centuries? Yes, Indians gambled. Ironically, it was a way of redistributing wealth. But then again in their social network, when one loses they are not left on their own, but rather supported by those with assets... They were never homeless or without food. And those that accumulated greater wealth would also have giveaways where those with less received food, material goods, horses, etc. Again redistribution of wealth. The only reason that Indians now suffer poverty is because of archaic Euro-American policies which are the ongoing reasons for Indian poverty and oppression.
The Federal Indian Gaming Act is specifically intended for Indian tribes to use gaming for economic development. Those tribes successful in gaming have built health clinics, schools, housing and paid for their government programs as well as invested in other diversified economic enterprises. Indian gaming has also increased Indian Country political power. No more poverty and no more oppression. Unfortunately, isolated rural tribes do not have good locations for utilizing gaming and have not reaped those benefits.
Gaming is only evil from your limited cultural viewpoint.
Posted on August 12, 2008 11:52 AM
Oregon, like Washington, is officially no longer a swing state:
2004 OREGON: Dems +66,412 in registrations
2008 OREGON: Dems +207,385 in registrations
Posted on August 12, 2008 3:11 PM
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