Clinton 50, Obama 41
I warned you guys not to rush to conclusions over the Quinnipiac poll alone. Rasmussen shows a modest backlash against Obama following the "bitter" comments.
I would even wait until even more polls are conducted.
Posted on April 15, 2008 10:26 AM
There are at least three interesting things in this poll:
1. Questions #9 and #10. While 51% disagreed with Obama's initial comments, only 37% considered the comments "elitist" (while 48% did not).
2. Question #11: a whopping 70% agree with Obama's follow-up comments (that people are frustrated, bitter, angry, etc. and want a change in Washington).
3. Obama's favorability rating remains at a high 72%.
All of this suggests to me that the electorate is capable of seeing through some of the b.s. and making independent judgments.
Posted on April 15, 2008 10:31 AM
and as i pointed out a few days back... PA is like Ohio. the thing that's hurting obama is the majority of male votes shifting to clinton. this is the first time he loses his edge. caveat emptor/strong women in these kinds of states bear down on their men to vote more as teams and the latest polls reveal this behavior.
Posted on April 15, 2008 11:04 AM
Sorry, lsmakc, but once again you've provided absolutely no evidence to support your claims. The poll tells us nothing about whether PA women are "strong" or "weak", nor is there any reason to believe that PA women are stronger than women in other states, or that they are "bearing down" on their men in any particular way. Heck, the poll doesn't even tell us whether a majority of respondents are married or not.
Posted on April 15, 2008 11:11 AM
despite your obvious need for transient data, in depth interviews, history and sociology supports it. sometimes a macro view is more robust than a worm's eye!! but for those who can only handle the mercurial numbers, just read your polling data and compare. that at least is something you can digest.
Posted on April 15, 2008 11:20 AM
Actually, PA may be more like WISC than Ohio. Go here http://spa.american.edu/ccps/ and click on blog for an three-part, freakonomics type study on which states are true peers for PA. The answer - consistently - is Wisc, not Ohio.
Don't know what this means for the upcoming primary.
Posted on April 15, 2008 12:02 PM
Oh Ismakc, let down your golden hair so I may ascend your ivory tower.
Come on, you're at a polling website; a macro view is as unfocused as a telescope that expands to the view of the universe. And if anything the interviews and sociological studies as of recent have disproven history that couples are actually voting for different candidates. That is the miracle of the secret ballot provides a curtain of privacy that goes beyond the sphere of relationships to be a personal choice.
Posted on April 15, 2008 12:09 PM
mynlong golden tresses seem to have caused you a hair ball for i cannot perceive the point in your post. nay, you best scurry back to parchment and scratch something clear and pointed out. i await your brilliance!!
Posted on April 15, 2008 12:22 PM
Unfortunately, you only bite on sarcasm and not the meat of my argument. I don't think its very hard to understand even for the princess on-the-go that a balanced diet is essential observing how this fast paced world works. Macro-ism is as dangerous as minimalism when dealing with multiple observations. But you knew that already. :)
Posted on April 15, 2008 12:43 PM
This poll is within the MOE of the poll from the Rasmussen April 7 (and vice versa). No substantial movement. It's still single digits. Remember - one month ago, Rasmussen had this at a 13 and 15 point lead for Clinton (on Ohio/Texas Tuesday and the week after).
Posted on April 15, 2008 2:53 PM
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