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POLL: Rasmussen Pennsylvania (8/19)


Rasmussen Reports
8/19/08; 700 LV, 4.5%
Mode: IVR

Pennsylvania
Obama 48, McCain 45
(July: Obama 51, McCain 45)

 

Comments
marctx:

See Obama maintains a slight lead and notice that Obama is loosing points to undecided not McCain. -Thoughtful:

I'll save you some keystrokes Thoughtful: since you're traveling abroad.

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thoughtful:

@marctx
in my London office.

It is Obama shedding his lean support to undecided again, every poll for the past 10 days! Obama can close the deal. This is a very uphill for McCain really because he is not perceived as a 21st century man! ergo There are more ageists than racists.

McCain's just made a major gaff with his ready acceptance of reintroducing the Draft in a town hall meeting the other night was it last?

I can't see any greater motivation for an 18 + year old to vote.

In any case a volunteer army is always a far greater quality force than a conscripted one.

Conscription should only be introduced in times of real national security need.

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KipTin:

Rasmussen has a sense of humor. The subtitle to their poll analysis is titled "Obama CLINGS to Modest Lead in Pennsylvania." (My emphasis.)

Well, now the poll shows results within sampling error. Bad news for Obama losing 3 points while McCain holds steady in the "leaner" category.

"McCain has more support from Republicans than Obama does from Democrats, and McCain also wins more crossover votes from the other party. The two candidates are even among unaffiliated voters."
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

The Obama campaign should also be worried about the close numbers on this question:
"Do lobbyists and campaign contributors have too much influence?"
Obama 40% Yes
McCain 44% Yes

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KipTin:

Three stages of grief after being disappointed with Obama:
1. Undecided
2. Other
3. McCain

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TheVoice_99:

It must be troubling for gramps that the only thing he has accomplished with his "classy" campaigning is to take points away from obama but not adding to his tally - he can't crack 45 nationally. This doesn't bode well for him come november. obama and clinton haven't ramped up their campaigning, so after the convention it will all be over.

poor gramps - I thought he would make it.


what is goood for obama is that it is just bitter clinton voters everywhere suppressing the vote of the dems who have an inherent registration advantage this year. maybe a couple ads of misogyny john would do the trick? you know, the repeated rape and wife-beating diddies. also, the anti-choice stance should help out a bit once people know that even in cases of rape and incest he opposes abortion. yikes....what a nutjob.

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thoughtful:

The stand out in this poll is McCain 40% - It is only with including leaning that McCain gets to 45%.

This is a "Likely Voter" poll as well.

Maybe Penn will go to light blue, I can't believe on the numbers that NH is yellow! Can anybody explain, as I can't quite get there?

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TheVoice_99:

By the way, a LOT of people have HD. Who wants to see a wrinkled, old, decrepit mummy for the next 4 years? The visuals are going to be stunning. Maybe the repubs will get lucky and he'll die before the election......they can hope. Me? I can't wait for the imagery.

That doesn't even take into account the actual substance of the debate when mccain stumbles around and asks the moderators to keep repeating their questions. That'll be high comedy. What's he going to say when Obama bashes him over the head repeatedly for green-lighting all of Bush's failed policies??? That will be the highest of high comedies.


Right now, the polls are close, because no one is plugged in. Once it gets closer to election day, it is going to be a complete wipe-out.

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marctx:

Why don't you liberals say something about Voice's repeated ageist comments????? It's okay to be a sexist, ageist, and a bigot...but not a racist?? What's with the double standard??


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thoughtful:

@TheVoice_99

I'd be far more respectful of McCain and his campaign if I were you.

Since the Obama World Tour, McCain campaign has strategically out maneuvered the Obama Campaign and the trend line is going with McCain. It is still not at all certain how 25% of those voting in November are going to vote.

McCain kept to his brief and was virtually word perfect with the good Pastor Rick. Obama was not impressive in the primary debates.

This campaign can get and will probably turn very ugly after the conventions.

I am betting large against John McCain winning, not relying on HD television but on old fashion word of mouth!

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Tybo:

"marctx:
Why don't you liberals say something about Voice's repeated ageist comments????? It's okay to be a sexist, ageist, and a bigot...but not a racist?? What's with the double standard?? "

Voice isn't a liberal, he's an obama-ite and an arse.
His multiple Id's and insults are the basis of Obama's support and explain why obama isn't carrying the democrats, but is carrying the 18-20 year olds

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BrookLynda:

marctx: it is not "ageist" to comment upon mccain's obvious cognitive difficulties as they bear directly on his ability to perform the job in question.

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TheVoice_99:

@martx-

Are you really that ignorant? The difference, genius, is that most everyone will get old. Not everyone will see what it's like to be a black/woman/hispanic/muslim etc.

Understand?


Republicans...dumber than a box of hammers.

Even people of adavanced age know what happens to mental capacity and sharpness as they age and admit it readily. It is obvious mccain is experiencing early alzheimers.

The decrepit corpse just flip-flopped yet again - this time it will be a game ender. He just said that a draft needs to be instituted in order to catch Bin Laden, which of course, he wants to do.


Good bye gramps, thanks for playing. You just increased youth turnout by about 200%. Once obama and friends put that little nugget in with the rest of the war-monger's greatest hits, it will be lights out.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdJUCU1UH2w

@ thoughtful -

I don't give out respect to misogynistic, racist, war-mongering fossils who green-lighted all the failed policies of the worst president in the history of this country. Thanks for the suggestion, though.

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thoughtful:

One of the more interesting findings of the recent GWU battleground poll (that has mcCain leading by 1) was that 27% of those polled were concerned that 72 was too old compared to 7% who felt that being an AA was a disqualification from Presidential election.

I sense that Racialism maybe a tad stronger than that finding, but ageism is rife!

As I oft point out to friends both sides of the political divide both Churchill and Mandela showed their finest leadership qualities past the age of 70.

Trust me though - McCain is no Churchill.

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John:

marxtx:
I would prefer if all comments were neither sexist, ageist, bigoted nor racist (i.e. intelligent and civil) but given the history I am not sure these are comparable and hence why there are two standards.

I think there is some misunderstanding about what 'within sampling error' actually is. The MOE for a poll applies to both caniditates. For a poll with a 95% confidence level and a sample size of 700, one canditate would have to lead the other by about 7 point in order to be outside the sampling error. So both this and the last poll were within the sampling error.

In this poll, rasmussen has picked up a high level of voters who are suggesting that they will vote for someone outside the two main canditates, 7%, but when pushed prefer McCain. I am not sure how much one can read into this unless it is confirmed by other polls.

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Stillow:

@marctx

No one pays attention to Voice, most just ignore him. He has like 50 aliases on here, just ignore him. He's a typical angry liberal who is weak on issues so he resorts to name calling and personal attacks....he would be much better off over at the Kos instead of here.

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boskop:

re:voice99, boscrap, poland..., boscrapraped my cat,etc.

this angry black woman possibly physically handicapped based on certain phraseology, is not even creative about her posts. they are all cut and pasted and re-upped.

feel sorry for her, but ignore her. she and her kind are the ones obama must blame for his descent.


@thoughtful

there's a basic law of physics which i am sure you know called entropy: the law of high distribution.

it's the same process that slowly deflates an inflated balloon. when the gas ie air starts to insidiously leak there is no way to plug it back in. the pressure from without has worn down the skin of the balloon.

you have the same thing with obama. his balloon has started to leak and he cannot re-inject air enough to hold it because the latex skin, ie his public persona had begun to sag.

watch for new jersey to start moving up for mccain and wisconsin. i know i say this all the time but it is sloughed over by everyone.

i find it the most interesting criteria that consistenly flies under the radar.

anyway, @thoughtful... i think you need to return to the US for a little humble pie. You are suffering the typical ex-pat disconnect.

things turned when obama went space cadet in berlin. we DO NOT like being told how we will perform. as a matter of fact, we curmudgeonly folk kinda like kicking the fancy pants of the
monarch driven pretty boys in europe and telling them to go you know what themselves!!

also: obama's week gets worse and worse. he keeps telling everyone to fill up his tires but bush keeps deflating them!!! his recent populism deflates obama's "change" thesis. his monetary bail outs, lending and rebates, his recently negotiated iraqi withdrawal time line saps obama's BIG IDEA, his drill now, deflates his rap for being in the pocket with oil because it lowers gas prices..

all in all obama can only reflate them darn tires with his HOT AIR!!!

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TheVoice_99:

I love it how these pathetic repubs go around boards trying to drum up support for their corpse, I mean candidate. Do you think ANYONE is going to vote for the corpse after they see them both on stage during the debates?

On one hand we have someone who is a self made man, who has pulled himself up by his bootstraps, and finished at the top of his class. And on the other, a guy who finishes at the bottom of his class in college, an incompetent pilot, weak-willed (succumbs to torture), is a misogynist, uses racial slurs, flip flops on a range of issues, cheats on his wife with multiple women, has monumental temper issues, and has fully supported the worst president in the history of this country.

And the media loves him, so they never call him out on how he is unfit to be president of a small burger chain, much less the country.

Hmmm.....I WONDER WHY??

Even a fellow Vietnam POW won't vote for him:


http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,164859_1,00.html

What do other republicans and conservatives say about mccain?


Republicans comments about the party's presumptive nominee, John McCain.

"His temper would place this country at risk in international affairs, and the world perhaps in danger. In my mind, that should disqualify him." - Former Senator Bob Smith, R-NH

"The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic." - Senator Thad Cochran, R-MS

"I decided I didn't want this guy anywhere near a trigger." - Senator Pete Domenici, R-NM

"There's nothing redeeming about John McCain...he's a hypocrite." - Former House GOP Whip Tom DeLay

"He is a vicious person. They so disliked him that they wouldn't support him." - Former Representative Charles LeBoutillier, R-NY

"What happens if he gets angry in crisis in the presidency? It's the president's job to negotiate and stay calm. I just don't see that he has that quality." - Former Arizona GOP Chairman John Hinz

"John McCain is Bob Dole minus the charm, conservatism, and youth. Unlike McCain, Dole didn't lie all the time while claiming to engage in 'straight talk.'" - Conservative blowhard Ann Coulter

"Hardheaded is one way to say it. Arrogant is another way to say it. Hubristic is another way to say it. Too proud for his own good is another way to say it. It's a quality about him that disturbs me." - Larry Wilkerson, former chief aide to Colin Powell

An "embarrassment to the party." - Arizona GOP State Senator Susan Johnson

"I don't like him at all." - Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-CO

"It just seems like everything we did, John was someplace else...In my mind, he is not a conservative." - Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-IL


"He is the anti-conservative. He instinctively sides against conservatives and relishes poking them in the eye." - Conservative blowhard David Limbaugh

"If either John McCain or Mike Huckabee gets the nomination, it's going to destroy the Republican Party, it's going to change it forever, be the end of it." - Conservative blowhard Rush Limbaugh

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thoughtful:

@Stillow
Good Morning!
Voice is not a Liberal, he appears to be an extremely ignorant narrow minded person.

The way that he expresses his sentiments, however true, they might be at the root, only serve to discredit the candidate Obama, he claims to support.

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boskop:

@thoughtful
i think it's very clear by now, that we cant and shouldn't gang up on Voice99. it's not our style to do what she does.

but i also think that this person's posts are more to be taken as a cry for help based on the angry and repetitive use of certain language.

i only wish some of us could actually meet this person and let them know we are in fact sorry for what ever sadness has made them this bitter and maybe offer solace and even help.

the web has lots of windows that open. this person is opening one that has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with personal issues.

so on behalf of many of us out there in the blogosphere; the one you call boscrap and boskoprapedmycat, etc...really extends
a friendly hand and hopes that whatever happens in this election, that you are ok no matter what.

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faithhopelove:

The right-leaning Rasmussen finds Obama ahead in the crucial state of PA by 5 points--without leaners, who are undecideds who still have a lot of time to make up their minds. For reasons unclear to me, when Rasmussen pushes leaners, they suspiciously almost always break for McCain.

This poll is good news for Obama. He continues to lead in PA despite McCain's negative attacks, despite the fact that McCain has visited the state recently (Obama hasn't been there for over two months), and despite the fact that McCain is out-spending him there. Also, this poll finds that Obama's PA supporters are more enthusiastic than those of McCain--meaning they are more likely to vote for their candidate. And despite the fact that McCain has solidified his base, he is stuck in the low forties; meanwhile, Obama has room for improvement, as many Democrats still have not committed to him.

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marctx:

Good point thoughtful. Maybe Voice is a republican trying to piss of seniors.

That's a good idea. I could go on blogs with two different user names. With one constantly use ageist, sexist, and bigoted remarks (as an Obama supporter...wink...wink) then accuse Obama of sexism, racism, and bigotry to piss of seniors, women, and Mormons (i think Romney is gonna be the guy). There is a lot more seniors that vote than do youth and AA.

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TheVoice_99:

stillow - you just posted recently that "evolution is a liberal conspiracy".

Yeah, that shows what you are working with up top......

A retarded gopher has more sense than that....


boskop - you recently posted racist rants about obama...something about him "sucking on coconuts" if I recall. It figures that a racist is propping up the republican party bs here. By the way, if you are so confident in your corpse, why don't you go wager some money on him at intrade.com?? Oh...no? I see...big talk and no action. All hat and no cattle as they say....


So to sum up, two repub posters here (boscrap and stillknowsnothing) continually put forth racist rants and idiotic religious garbage.

Hmmm, and they wonder why the WHOLE WORLD wants obama.......


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faithhopelove:

The right-leaning Rasmussen finds Obama up in PA by 5 points--without leaners, who are undecideds who still have plenty of time to make up their minds. Suspiciously, when Rasmussen pushes leaners, they almost always break for McCain.

This poll is good news for Obama. He continues to lead in PA despite McCain's negative attacks, depite the fact that McCain is out-spending him there, and despite the fact that McCain has visited the state recently (Obama has not been to PA in over two months). Also, the poll finds that Obama's supporters are more enthusiastic (meaning more likely to vote). And with many Democrats still not committed to him, Obama has room for growth (McCain does not, as he has already solidified his base).

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TheVoice_99:

I love it how these pathetic repubs go around boards trying to drum up support for their corpse, I mean candidate. Do you think ANYONE is going to vote for the corpse after they see them both on stage during the debates?

On one hand we have someone who is a self made man, who has pulled himself up by his bootstraps, and finished at the top of his class. And on the other, a guy who finishes at the bottom of his class in college, an incompetent pilot, weak-willed (succumbs to torture), is a misogynist, uses racial slurs, flip flops on a range of issues, cheats on his wife with multiple women, has monumental temper issues, and has fully supported the worst president in the history of this country.

And the media loves him, so they never call him out on how he is unfit to be president of a small burger chain, much less the country.

Hmmm.....I WONDER WHY??

Even a fellow Vietnam POW won't vote for him:


http://www.military.com/opinion/0,15202,164859_1,00.html

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player:

The one thing that is striking about this poll is the approval ratings of the president. Bush got a 75% approval rating of fair and above. This state has more veterans living in it than any other state in the union. One would expect McCain to pull ahead in this state next month especially if this Russian ordeal keeps escalating.

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thoughtful:

@Boskop

Uphill Struggle for McCain, did a full reflection on it. the campaign has stalled. I don't know why he can't get beyond 45% in the nationals the way these polls are compiled. But he can't!

This may be his high point. 25%+ of the voters think he's disqualified by age.

The You Gov/econmist poll is very interesting, it shows you how open this election is! However McCain isn't equipped to win it, it really is as simple as that!

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marctx:

Thoughtful:

You are definitely as optimistic as Obama. MSNBC guys are sweeting and the Fox guys are popping corks.

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TheVoice_99:

"popping corks" LOL ROTFLMAO!!!


Good one!!

Why don't you go to intrade.com and wager on it then, big talker??


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boskop:

@thoughful
you sound pretty smart. momentum is a visual thing. take a look at the graph and note that not since september '07 have the republicans closed such a large gap.

at that time, you will remember that bush was considered as delectable to the electorate as a hissing cockroach on a skewer.

the elephants were being lined up to be euthenized by me, you, the press, everyone.

mccain was in hock and not considered a viable candidate.\\

for this much room to have been made up (actually more than before) shows the trend having far more than evanescent blip to it. it is enormous.

good luck in bubble and squeak land...

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Stillow:

@thoughtful

I think McCain is going to shock you. Remember this is an anti-GOP year, yet the race is a virtual tie. The map is getting more red, not more blue the past few weeks.
Its still a toss up, but I give the edge to McCain right now. The country has historically looked the other way when a liberal candidate runs. Grnated Carter snuck in htere in 76, but lasted just one term. All these undecideds out there right now I think a lot of them are the Reagan Dems who shifted to Bill Clinton in hte 90's as a southern moderate...but they are very hesitant to support a far left candidate, which Obama clearly is.
I think the McCain trend continues...unless Obama gives a killer speech in Denver...and picks Hillary. McCain throws up a egg on his speech and picks a left winger as VP....just my opinion...

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boskop:

if he picks hillary, i wont for him.
it's just throwing salt in an open wound by obama and his henchmen the DNC.

obama should pick pelosi and they can dance into the sunset, she starry eyed in love with her october romance and he doomed to pick a powerful chick just one on the wane not the rise.

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thoughtful:

@Stillow, Boskop, Marctx

Sorry guys Trend line with McCain but stalled, for now!

25% of the electorate don't know who they are voting for, so it is wide open.

I did address the issue of why in my opinion Obama's lead is actually wider than current polls suggest in detail on the NBC national comment/blog.

I have to tell you the mind blow for me is that 25% of the US electorate think 72 is too old, I haven't factored that into my modeling!

PS I have never been wrong in any US General Election except 2000 when I forecast a tie, I kid you not!

____________________

KipTin:

Sucking on coconuts is "racist?" I thought it meant that one was vacationing on a tropical island (and it does). Some people see racism at every turn because that can be the only reason that someone is not in love with Obama.

____________________

Stillow:

I kinda miss the old landslide days when the country was actaully united. This 50/50 country is dangerous.
This country is in a financial mess, big spending liberalism is not the answer......!

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thoughtful:

@Stillow

A certain Ronald Reagan ran up the largest budget deficit in Economic History only to lose his world record to George W Bush who inherited a budget surplus from that southern liberal WJ Clinton.

Reagan and Bush were both suppose to be fiscal conservatives.

____________________

marctx:

KipTin: I just had to laugh at your post. I don't know how that's racist either...lol!

boskop: Yes, his twin sister Pelosi would be the "honest" pick. We know were his loyalties lye. He is dishonest to the American people when "acting" like a centrist like Bill & Hillary.

Thoughtful: So you have supernatural presidential picking ability like Obama has supernatural I know the war was a mistake ability that Hillary/Biden/Kerry didn't have? Can you read my cards? Will my relationship work out?

____________________

boskop:

@stillow

i beg to differ. there is nothing in the world more beneficial to progress than division. maybe our country is telling us something. that two parties just dont hack it anymore.

but for now, when you have this kind of split you are talking about 'market dynamics'. in other words, to win or to most effectively grow your company, the one that scoops up a little of the other's product the fastest is the winner.

so what we have here is the market saying, "come to the middle if you want to win." that means a centrist tilt to the country and that is really okay.

we have to learn to listen to one another and that has to start in the iconic contest of the presidency. division is the best thing for the health of the country because when it is this close it tends to mix.

so take heart stillow, this is all good. really good.

____________________

marctx:

How dare you call Bill Clinton a liberal. Bill was a centrist that practiced triangulation politics. He passed republican welfare reform. Defended an alley with war. Balanced the budget. Obama would puke before doing any of those things. Obama's a liberal.

____________________

Stillow:

Bush is no conservative...on many many issues.
On Reagan, its an old debate, but most understand the stradegy behind building up the military to overtake the Soviets, he had to sign off on big liberal spending in the 80's before they would allow him to build upthe military. He always noted he hated spending, but based on the situation had to go along with big spending...its an ol debate we don't wanna bring up here.

But your right on Bush, the guy is a crazy spendaholic. Clinton's surplus was the product of a conservative congress in the 90's and the tech bubble build up which went bust in 2000. When W was elected the cons in congress shifted and became big spending nutballs....they tried to outpander the left which is not possible to do.............!

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Stillow:

Bill was no lib, he ws a moderate...Hillary is far more liberal than Bill was.

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thoughtful:

@marctx
I have a very low opinion of politicians of every flavor. If Obama had been in the Senate he would have voted to give Bush the authorization for war the beforementioned did.

You have to take on board the polls, what lies behind them and interpret, then put some external factors in. Wouldn't it be a shame if the weather was bad in the mid west on election day or a hurricane blows through Dade county!

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Could one of the polling geniuses address John's point (see /blogs/poll_rasmussen_pennsylvania_81.html#comment-43006) about the MOE applying to both candidates.

So if candidate A leads B 47-43 with 3% MOE, there's a 95% probability A's number is between 50 and 44 and that B's is between 47 and 40.

If John's right, why is it everybody describes a difference between candidates that's larger than the MOE as being outside the margin of error?

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John:

Justin:
Interesting question, one which I would like to know the answer to.
The problem is, that the percentage of voters for McCain and the percentage of voters for Obama are not independent samples. That is if the % of voters for McCain, due to sampling error, is too high then it is highly likely that the % of voters for Obama is too low.

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John:

Here is an article which might be helpful, it's about the Iowa primary but it could be applied to any poll
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2007/12/moe-and-mojo.html

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