Articles and Analysis


POLL: Rasmussen Virginia

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 45, McCain 44
Sen: Warner (D) 60, Gilmore (R) 33



Wow... 60%. This poll (and others) may have something to do with Warner saying absolutely NOT to VP. He stated very clearly that he was going to stay in the Senate race.



I wonder if this is just a continuation of the bump or something more. I anxiously await more polls *drool.



Obviously Virginia is becoming more and more purple. McSame doesn't seem to make up any ground, quite the opposite, and the republican candidates slip further and further.

Warner's numbers are no surprise. The guy has polled no lower than 55% since last year. No doubt that Warner is going to win by huge margins. Poor Republican!!!!

P.S: Check Real Clear Politics and see that Warner has constantly being above 55%, except by one poll at 53%. His numbers obviously have nothing to do with VP or anything like that. It seems like Warner is very much loved in Virginia. Future presidential hopeful? You bet, my friend.



When Mark Warner became governor in 2001, he inherited a faltering economy and an enormous deficit that was a direct result of his predecessor, Gov. Jim Gilmore.

For those of us who lived through Gilmore's reckless fiscal policies and Mark Warner's miraculous recovery, 60% is plausible for Mark Warner. He left office with 70-80% approval in a red state.

In addition, several prominent Virginia republicans have endorsed Mark Warner over Jim Gilmore in the last few weeks. This is pretty much a lock for Warner.

The question is whether Mark Warner, Sen. Jim Webb, and Gov. Tim Kaine can collectively tip Virginia blue for Obama. The environment for Dems is about as good as I have seen in my 20 years living in this state.



I think that the fact that McCain will have to spend money and time in Virginia is by itself a good thing for Barack. Every dollar McCain spends in Virginia, making sure that the state stays red, is a dollar he won't have to spend in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania. This will make Obama's war chest all more powerful.




To be honest, I think Obama has a better chance of taking Virginia than Florida, but we'll see.

I think the whole race is about watching Michigan, Ohio, and Virginia.



Hello killias2: You might be right. I keep on including Florida maybe because it has gone democratic in recent years. Note that I include 2000 since I didn't buy the ballots story. But you might be right about the chances in Virginia being greater than Florida's. Although Florida has change with a new wave of hispanics, democratic and independent hispanics.

For the first time in Florida there are more hispanics registered as democrats and independents than republicans. Until now, hispanics in Florida were overwhelmingly cubans, republican cubans. However, these cubans have been dying and a whole new generation of hispanics have moved to Florida. That's why the change in party registration. As we have already seen in various national polls, despite Obama's performance among hispanics in the primaries against Hillary, in his match-up against McCain, Obama leads among hispanics quite handily, 2 to 1. So, don't lose hope because you never know.




Another ridiculous conclusions regarding a extraneous information, or in this case, completely wrong information.

Mark Warner of Virginia did not state that he absolutely would not accept the VP slot, that was Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, who endorsed Obama and said he would campaign strongly from him.

You should move this junk over to the Republican partisan blogs.

The facts are that this Rasmussen poll shows a 4 point swing from one month ago, and now both SurveyUSA and Rasmussen are showing a lead for Obama in Virginia, a state that went for Bush in 2004 by 8 points.



I'm impressed with Obama's performance in the VA polls. However, I think a statistical tie will favor McCain because of the Bradly effect. A lot of blue collar voters don't participate in polls. It's a toss up. I agree Obama has a better chance in VA then FL. This race is truly a toss up. All the polls are so close there is now way to predict anything at this point. I am torn because I am a democrat but I am a Hillary supporter with lingering anger. I'd be happy either way. I still wish Obama would pick Hillary as VP so I could throw every cent I have to the democrats. If not, I'm confused.


Get a Mac:


Mark Warner officially withdrew from the VP hunt this past weekend. "Let me be clear about this: I have been working very hard these last few months to ask the people of Virginia to give me the honor of being their United States senator," Warner said. "I will not seek, and I will not accept, any other opportunity."



I stand corrected on Mark Warner. Nevertheless, the poll was taken before his statement on the 14th, and it was a near certainty regardless that he would complete his bid for the Senate seat in Virginia. In other words, the claim of a Warner bump by rejecting a VP slot was way off the mark.




I'm not sure that there is a such a thing as the "Bradly Effect" in 2008. Even in Tennessee in 2006, the poll averages were dead-on with the Corker/Ford race, and they under-predicted the Massachusetts Patrick/Healey Governor's race of 2006. I would expect that if the effect existed broadly, it would be the most prominent in a state like Tennessee.

Working in Obama's favor in Virginia is the fact that in 2004 the electorate was 21% AA, 54% women overall, and slightly younger than the national average. These are great demographics for Obama.

There have been questions about whether the pollsters are adjusting appropriately for the enthuiasm of young Obama voters, and the minority turnout. This state for instance gave Obama a 28% margin over Clinton, and he outperformed the poll average margin by 10 points. This was a common effect in states with a large AA population and states with open primaries (VA was both). 7% of the Dem primary voters were Republicans, and they gave Obama a 49% margin (this was pre-Limbaugh effect). Independents were 22% of the voters and gave Obama a 39% margin.

Pair all of this with strong performance of Dems in the Senate race, and the stars couldn't be better aligned for a fundamental change in this state's preferences. Although not as favorable to Obama, North Carolina should at least be close, and his performance may hinge on the Dole/Hagen race. If it's not this election, it will happen within a decade. North Carolina has become the place to go for young professionals on the East Coast.



OK... brambster.... It is far past the time to quit calling me "Whinerberry"... Definitely not intelligent and civil... Reminds me of grader school.

Thank you... Get a Mac... for setting brambster straight with the facts about Warner NOT accepting VP slot.



MADRID, Spain, June 6, 2008
In Interviews With Newspapers In Spain, Former Candidate Rules Out Running On Ticket With Obama:

(AP) Former Sen. John Edwards has ruled out being Barack Obama's running mate on the Democratic presidential ticket, according to interviews carried by two leading Spanish newspapers on Friday.

"I already had the privilege of running for vice president in 2004, and I won't do it again," Edwards was quoted by El Mundo as saying. El Pais, the country's other leading daily, carried similar comments.

June 15, 2008
Edwards Has Not Ruled Out V.P. Run:

(ABC)2004 Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards this morning left open the possibility of a second run for the position. "I'd take anything he [Obama] asked me to think about seriously," Edwards explained in a "This Week" interview with George Stephanopoulos.

In less than 10 days, for goodness sake!!!

Prudent politians know that you don't show interest in being VP because you don't want to: a)Look like you're forcing your way on the ticket and in so doing, make the nominee reject you, so he or she don't look weak. See, dear Hillary? b)do not make a fool of yourself by showing interest and then not being picked, as simple as that.

P.S: Just ask Fred Thompson, one of McCain's best friends. June 16, (AP) Former Sen. Fred Thompson, who also sought this year's GOP nomination, said: "I'm not interested."

"It's presumptuous for a person to turn down things that haven't been offered to them and I don't think will be offered. And it's not something that I want. So I'll just leave it at that," added Thompson, also appearing on ABC.

(April 5, 2008)
CNN confirms that Fred Thompson will make a visit to McCain's Sedona, Arizona home this weekend. Thompson, who ended his presidential bid in January, is a longtime friend of the Arizona senator.

See how is the game?




You quoted Strickland when claiming an effect for Warner, and you claimed an effect happened two days before Warner even made his comment.

How is it that you see fit to claim that I was set straight without you even accepting responsibility for your completely wrong information?

I accepted responsibility for my mistake. I'm not here to mislead people.


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