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POLL: Rasmussen Virginia (8/12)


Rasmussen Reports
8/12/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
Mode: IVR

Virginia
McCain 48, Obama 47
(July: McCain 48, Obama 47)

Sen:
Warner (D) 61, Gilmore (R) 35
(July: Warner 59, Gilmore 36)

 

Comments
marctx:

Confirmation...tight race in this state.

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carl29:

A very purple state. This is going to be a real fight.

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carl29:

How will Colin Powell's endorsement play in this state, in terms of its military presence? I don't know. I just wonder.

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1magine:

It is hard to believe this state is in -play, along with AK, CO, and MT. While FL and MO and IN are trending JM, and likely will go that way, though part of Crist's popularity in FL is his prominence in the gay community, not sure McCain will get the same votes. This still leaves allot of possibilities for BO. Not that he needs VA, FL or even OH. With NH and CO he has 273. He can lose MT, AK, VA, FL and even OH and still win. JM can't lose any of those states. Meanwhile BO is ahead in AK, OH, CO and NH. And looking inside the cross tabs - I think he has a lead in VA, that will show much larger on election day.

Can't wait for the first debate. Better than Disney!

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thoughtful:

looking at this alongside the In/AD small poll i looked at earlier today gives a very similar result save for trying to extrapolate the cross tabs for both that seem to favor Obama save for the Very Unfavorables!

its early days, but there appears to be some very strong committed support for Obama that is deflecting a mounting unfavorable my gueess due to the neg ads, rev wright etc

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sulthernao:

VA is turning to a true tossup state. I wonder how much of an upticket effect there will be from Warner.

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Paul:

This poll at McCain +1 consistent with 538 projection (McCain +0.5) and consistent with NC polling showing McCain between +4 and +5. There is between a 4 and 5 point difference between NC and VA, favoring more Obama support in VA.

An Obama win in Virginia would be huge as he could lose OH, NH, CO and NV and still win (assumes all other Kerry states + IA and NM).

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marctx:

Obama doing so well in this state is a good sign for Obama. The keynote speaker from here could help. I think Colin endorsement could help Obama a lot! Lets see if he does it at the convention. I think Colin Powell is not seen as just another AA supporting Obama. He's a Republican that is very well liked.

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cinnamonape:

Many of those unfavorables may come from people who were pissed off with Obama when he voted for telcomm immunity for those that violated the 4th Amendment by allowing unwarranted wiretaps.

This was a big issue amongst the progressives, and monopolized a lot of their activism over many weeks. Obama said he would filibuster, then actually voted for the "immunity".

Thus people may rate Obama as Unfavorable or Very Unfavorable and still decide to vote FOR him rather than McCain...simply because McCain is even further to the right.

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