Pollster.com

I think you may have those statistics backwards, unless I'm missing something. I see Obama 44, McCain 43. Not that it makes a huge difference, but still.

Yeah, it's Obama 44, McCain 43. But as you noted, doesn't really make a difference - still a statistical tie.

Another red state turning purple. Is the McCain surge over? It will be by this time next week.

One would think that this poll clinches the nationwide movement towards McCain. Obama seems to have been rejected.

have you seen the light? New "The One" ad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PetxaA42OuE&feature=user

Yeeeeeeee Haaa!!! Let's lasso them dem doggies!!!

Sorry I'm kind of desparate for good news.

I live in NV...if he picks Romney, he will carry NV....there must be a trillion mormons living in southern Nevada!

Did obama pick mike bloomberg????? that don't sound like any of the favorites.

"someone who is independent and would challenge him in the White House. He also said he wanted someone who is prepared to be president and would help him strengthen the economy."

Good result for Obama, Nevada is probably the best shot GOP has at winning a western battleground state, it is nice to see Obama improving there, it will be a good insurance policy in case something goes wrong in Colorado. He is winning Clark County by 7 whereas Kerry only won it by 2 and this is not counting the massive gains Dems have made in that state in terms of voter registration. That's all I have to say about this poll, now pardon me while I go count the number of houses I have.

That new YouTube McCain ad is too funny.

There's going to be a major backlash against Dems in this state. We've had tons of Californians move here the last couple years. The local paper did a poll of these people asking why they are moving here and out of CA. the #1 answer by a huge margin was lower taxes. So what do they do when they get here? They start voting for Dems...and what do Dems do? Raise taxes. There's now local talk and a movement by the state dems to impose a state income tax. So these stupid Dems move in because we have a good tax structure, then they vote in Dems who end up raising taxes.....unbeleivable!

It makes a difference inasmuch as multiple polls showing a statistically insignificant Obama lead start to add up to a probable narrow Obama lead. Of course that would involve more than two polls coming out in this supposed swing state in a month.

To be very nitpicky... there is a difference between residences (where you live) and houses (investments). Many of us middle income types have owned more than one house for investment purposes.

CNN and others think that McCain's houses are a gift to Obama, but now the McCain campaign can respond (and already did) about how Obama got his house with the help of convicted felon Rezko. Was it a clever trap?

P.S. I guess I don't see where Obama is "improving" in Nevada. It looks pretty much the same. The only change is that Bob Barr is slipping which is said to be good for McCain.

Please tell me where in statistics that multiple samples (polls) with statistical ties add up to a "probable narrow" (statistically significant) lead for a candidate?

@KinPin: Rezko issue has already been vetted by the media and the courts, it does not have have the bite it would have had the the story been broken over the summer. On the other hand bringing up people like Ayers and Rezko gives Obama license to bring up the Keating 5 and when the Obama campaign decides to inject that issue into the race (and believe me they will) the media is going to have a field day reexamining that issue. Basically all these McCain attacks are giving Obama cover to attack back without the media narrative changing to "Has Obama become just another politician?"

Rezko, Ayers, Wright, Keating...it will all be in the news after the conventions. Each side is gonna pull out everything they can.
I love how the left still to this day claims McCain is running negative ads and Obama isn't.....I guess its tough to see thru such a thick layer of arogance.

Claude:

A 527 is about to spend 2.8m on the Ayers issue that a lot of people don't know anything about. Democrats just never understand presidential politics. You can try your heart out to smear McCain but it's not going to work. People have already made a decision about McCain's character. Obama is the big question mark. He should be trying answer about himself instead of abandoning his "above the fray" image. Shame on you Barack Obama. Shame on you.

@Stillow

Also a lot of hispanics have moved to So Nevada.

I am told that there are at least 2 Obama offices and a very visible organization. Lots of signage, is that inaccurate?

This should change some minds in Nevada......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXl2nR-2jxY&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/21/9233/70657/864/571701

@thoughtful

Ya he has signs everywhere....pretty divided though locally...lotta mormons here, watch out for Romney!! The tax issue should kill the Dems i nthis state in a couple years! They move here to get away from taxes, then vote to raise them when they get here.....no logic.

Yes... please re-examine the Keating Five from 1989.. McCain and John Glenn (D-Ohio) were cleared and ran successfully for re-election. (Note: You denigrate McCain in this context and you denigrate Ohio's hero. Really good idea to help McCain win Ohio!!!)

And by the way the other three senators who were found culpable are ALL DEMOCRATS. Yes, the Keating Five involved FOUR (count them) FOUR Democrats.

The Reno Gazette has just released a new poll of Nevada (600 likely voters) showing Obama up 44% to 43% (Kerry lost this state by just 3%). An earlier Rasmussen poll had McCain up 3. Obama has visited the state since the Rasmussen poll was taken. Perhaps more importantly, the Rasmussen poll did not include Bob Barr; the Reno Gazette poll did (Barr received 3%). Nevada has a Libertarian streak, as was shown by Ron Paul's popularity there. Apparently, McCain has been out-spending Obama in Nevada by two to one; yet Obama leads. The NPR poll suggests this lead is about 3 points.

Other Obama advantages in Nevada include the fact that the Republican party in this state is in disarray (largely due to the questionable ethics of the Republican governor), and the fact that the state's economy has been hit hard by the foreclosure crisis. This second issue may become a winner for Obama, whose campaign has just begun to highlight McCain's many homes--so many that the Arizona senator has lost count.

Obama should also benefit from McCain's support for storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain (outside Las Vegas), an issue McCain cannot run away from--he has called for the opening of 45 nuclear reactors, which means much more nuclear waste. Obama has started running a Yucca-specific ad in Nevada.

Finally, new Democratic registration is out-pacing new Republican registration in Nevada. In fact, Democrats now outnumber Republicans in this state (in 2004, Republicans had the edge).

The importance of Nevada can be seen when battleground states are analyzed carefully. If Obama wins the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico (he currently leads in all of these states), then he will need only 5 electoral votes for a tie. Nevada has 5 electoral votes. In the event of an electoral vote tie, the House of Representatives (which is and will be controlled by Democrats) will determine the winner.

Looking at only the most recent polls, Obama leads in the Kerry states, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Alaska--giving him a total of 272 electoral votes. Moreover, he is tied with McCain (according to a right-leaning pollster) in Montana. With 275 electoral votes, he could afford to lose New Hampshire, which is very close. While Obama may win (in order of likelihood) Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, or Florida, he may not need to win any of them.

That Nevada ad is pretty old in terms of political timeline. The results should have already been seen in the polls.

marctx-

What a joke of an "argument". McCain is a racist piece of garbage. Oh yeah, he is a misogynist too. There's no need to smear the corpse, you just have to tell the truth about him - just mention the rape jokes, the wife-beating jokes, the "gook" comment, the "c*nt " comment.......the list is endless.

The press doesn't want to do it because it will cause a landslide to Obama. And they need it to be a close race so they can get ratings. What do you think the pathetic primary was all about. Stupid ole Hillary was done in February, but the press fooled all you losers into thinking it was a "race". The Press is doing their best to make sure this is a close race by not reporting the facts about mccain. An independent organization even showed that they produced many more negative stories about obama than mccain.

Guess what....Obama and HIS 527s will bring up mccain's sleazy character - you can count on that.

yeah, bring up ayers and wright and whatever other bs. mccain has keating 5, leaving his wife for a younger woman, multiple affairs, temper issues, the misogyny, racial slurs, oh yeah, and he supported bush for the last 8 years.

It's not even close. Watch how badly mccain gets taken down. the old fossil has no chance.

These numbers really need to be fixed. (Also, the link on the Nevada trendline page is wrong; it takes you to the Reno Gazette-Journal, but not to the poll results.) The race in Nevada is definitely close, but this poll shows Obama up 1, not down 1, and that need to be reflected in the trend estimate. I haven't run the numbers, but from eye-balling it, correcting this number will just about make it a tie, if now put Obama ahead.

Obama's stand out veep pick is Mike Bloomberg and guess where the Mayor was yesterday in Las Vegas!
Mike ticks all the Indie and middle ground boxes which is where the election will be won. You know the 25% of the voters who really haven't made up their minds.
Well I wonder whether he will be in Springfield on Saturday?

Here’s a thought provoking question since we are on the topic of VP’s. While the impact of Choosing Romney may help with the Mormon voters in the Western states; What does Romney’s addition to the ticket do to the non Mormon voter. Enough images of the scandal laden Mormon leader on tv and it may have an impact on independents (where this race will be one). McCain is currently doing well with women, however associating Romney with Jeffs and a religion that is perceived to “abuse” kids may not bode well with mothers. Romneys religion will be fair game seeing that Obama’s pastor woes were exploited in the primary and will probably be re-opened in September.
I guess my point is that each vp pick will come with baggage and for some on here to suggest that because of Romney McCain would win Michigan or win Nevada is pretty ludicrous. While there may be some gains in some constituencies there may be a loss in others. Personally I would be thrilled to see Romney on the McCain ticket (being an Obama supporter) he does absolutely nothing to energize the republican evangelical base, Honestly, I think that Huckabee would be a better choice if McCain decided that the winning strategy was going after evangelical Christians… Iowa would now be in play and Obama would have to forget about MO or any of the middle south states but of course McCain would have to cede NH (less electoral votes than MO anyway)and other middle of the road states.

I would be interested in hearing you guy's opinions

Glad to see the numbers have been fixed on this page (to show Obama up 44/43, rather than the reversed numbers with McCain up that were posted earlier), but the trend estimate, chart, and map still need to be corrected. Once they are, the trend estimate for Nevada will show the state to be just about all tied up, or maybe even put Obama slightly ahead. That will obviate a lot of the comments people have made above.

I think Romney would help McCain in both Nevada and Michigan (though Obama could still win either or both). I don't think Romney would help McCain anywhere else. He under-performed in the primaries, due in part because of questions about his Mormon faith.

He might hurt McCain in the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia--all of which have large numbers of conservative evangelicals. Many conservative evangelicals believe Mormonism is a cult. They may not be willing to vote for either a ticket with Obama on it or a ticket with Romney on it, instead choosing either not to vote or to vote for Bob Barr or the right-wing Constitution Party's candidate (a Floridian). These two candidates are already on the ballot in Colorado and Florida.

Having two extremely wealthy persons on the same ticket may also hurt Republicans with the many voters who have economic woes.

For (in part) the wrong reasons Romney would hurt McCain: he suffers prejudice against his religion. This is stupid.

However, I think a more legitimate reason for judging Romney a bad VP pick is the fact that he is stiff--not a good campaigner--and has little appeal to independents. He began his campaign last year as the "competent manager" candidate, but then tried to morph into an unsatisfying version of a cultural conservative. That didn't come off as a natural fit for him, thus the stiffness.

If he can't help McCain with independents and he hurts McCain with the Republican base I can't see how McCain can justify picking him.

He is stiff--robotic.