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POLL: SurveyUSA GEs in OH, IA


Two new SurveyUSA statewide surveys of registered voters in Ohio and Iowa (conducted 11/9 through 11/11) finds:

Ohio (n=533):

    McCain 47, Clinton 46
    Clinton 49, Giuliani 44
    Clinton 51, Romney 42
    Clinton 54, Huckabee 37

    McCain 52, Obama 37
    Giuliani 49, Obama 41
    Obama 45, Romney 41
    Obama 48, Huckabee 38

Iowa (n=546):

    McCain 48, Clinton 44
    Clinton 47, Giuliani 43
    Clinton 49, Romney 43
    Clinton 49, Huckabee 43

    Obama 50, McCain 42
    Obama 52, Giuliani 39
    Obama 53, Romney 39
    Obama 56, Huckabee 35

 

Comments
spence:

Looks like Obama's efforts in Iowa are paying off. I Guess that's what happens when name recognition becomes less of a factor.

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spence:

Looks like Obama's efforts in Iowa are paying off. I Guess that's what happens when name recognition becomes less of a factor.

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DTM:

If you look at the cross-tabs, some interesting patterns emerge. Obama generally does better than Clinton among Republicans and independents in both Ohio and Iowa. So why the disparity in results? In Iowa he also does better than Clinton among Democrats, but in Ohio Clinton does much better among Democrats.

So the question for Clinton would appear to be whether she could improve her performance with Republicans and independents in places like Iowa once the nominees are settled and the general election campaign begins in all the swing states. The question for Obama would appear to be whether he could improve his performance with Democrats in places like Ohio once the nominees were settled and the general election campaign begins in all the swing states.

And I have my guess about which of those scenarios is more likely.

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Excellent comment, DTM, you hit it on the head.

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Paul:

As a follow up to the comment from DTM, which I agree was really point on, I find it interesting in some states that these general election match-ups do not track with primary polls. The only Republican who can win in Iowa and Ohio, clearly two bell-weather states, is McCain, who is doing really poorly in the Republican primary polls in both states. It is also interesting that in poll after poll, where Romney does well in the Republican primary polls, he gets crushed in the general election match-up. I also find it interesting that Obama does better in some general election match-ups where he is consistently defeated by Clinton. So ... is it possible both parties nominate a candidate (Clinton and Romney) who are less likely than their opposition (Obama, Giuliani, McCain) to win a general election?

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