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POLL: SurveyUSA Iowa GEs


A new SurveyUSA automated survey of 539 registered voters in Iowa (conducted 12/13 through 12/15) finds:

General Election Match-ups for President:

    McCain 46%, Clinton 45%
    Clinton 46%, Huckabee 45%
    Clinton 48%, Romney 45%
    Clinton 47%, Giuliani 42%

    Obama 51%, Romney 39%
    Obama 51%, McCain 39%
    Obama 52%, Huckabee 39%
    Obama 55%, Giuliani 36%

 

Comments

Talk about polling for polling's sake. Iowa's 7 electoral votes aren't really at the forefront of anybody's mind right now. That said, I'm sure the Obama folks have to like the way these numbers sound when making last-minute pitches to caucus-goers.

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Michael:

Gregory, I have to disagree with you on "polling for polling's sake".

I think the opposite is true: this might be the most significant "general election" poll we could get. There are only 3 states where all the candidates from both parties have campaigned: Iowa, NH, and SC. I think it's pretty instructive to see that, after months of rallies, TV ads, and local paper interviews, who Iowans prefer. Its certainly more instructive than a poll of the nation writ large, where the vast majority of respondents will know little-to-nothing about anyone not named "Clinton" or "Giuliani"

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Michale, totally fair point. I'm not sure the saturation campaigning in Iowa is a fair comparison for what will happen post-Tsunami Tuesday, but you're right that it's at least an interesting exercise.

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The national polls are more representative of the Presidential race than local ones like Iowa, NH, and SC. That's because for 90% of the primary vote, and 100% of the general election, the candidates will be known through media soundbites, commercials, and normal political cycles. The idea of "door to door" and "townhall meetings" across the country is ridiculous. They are only done to get media coverage after these first 2 states.

It is only the media who have decided that these 3 states are important even though they account for less than 150 delegates selected out of over 2184 delegates
needed to win the dem nomination. ( In fact, Hillary prob. already has over 300 superdelegates who will vote for here at the convention.)


The MSM do this because they are bored and want to justify their jobs. History shows these early states overall don't matter. For every example that they do, there is one where they don't.

Are you telling me it doesn't matter that after her worst six weeks Hillary is at least up 17 nationally and in California,Florida, New York? So her numbers have held. There won't be any ground campaigns in these states. The biggest factor will be "the free media" from Iowa, NH, SC; and MSM storylines.

Obama has surged in the gen. election head to head because of good media. No one serious would think Guiliani would only get 36% in Iowa on election day against Obama. Clearly those media dynamics would change. But right now (until around Feb 5th) the best election horse race facts can be determined by nationwide polls.

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Paul:

Good news for Obama and he has done well recently in the primary polling.

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