Articles and Analysis


POLL: SurveyUSA Issues in 15 States (8/15-17)

8/15-17/08; Registered Voters
Mode: IVR

Among other questions:

    Which candidate for President do you think will do a better job handling the economy?

    Which candidate for President do you think will do a better job handling the situation in Iraq?

New Mexico
Economy: Obama 49, McCain 38
Iraq: Obama 47, McCain 41

Economy: Obama 46, McCain 44
Iraq: McCain 46, Obama 43

Economy: Obama 46, McCain 43
Iraq: McCain 49, Obama 41

Economy: McCain 45, Obama 43
Iraq: McCain 50, Obama 41

Economy: Obama 49, McCain 40
Iraq: Obama 45, McCain 44

Economy: McCain 52, Obama 41
Iraq: McCain 55, Obama 36

Economy: Obama 47, McCain 43
Iraq: McCain 49, Obama 42



people should really learn basic math. The transitive property is very simple. If Mccain is like bush, and bush has done such a horrible job on iraq and the economy and if mccain has voted with bush 100% of the time this year, then mccain will be as bad as bush.

why don't people put 2 and 2 together?



I don't suppose they could have asked people who they'd actually vote for ? :)

The VA / OH gap on economy is strange. I thought McCain was losing Ohio and winning VA, and yet he's doing the opposite here.



Wow... Virgina is a bust for Obama on the Economy and Iraq according to this poll.

Also look at how unfavorable he is viewed compared to McCain: Obama 37% very unfavorable to McCain's 22%. Only 3 points divide them on very favorable (Obama 16/McCain 13).



Because Obama is a weak choice by the Dems.



Uh... because Dave the elitist... McCain has NOT voted with Bush 100% of the time. I remember several votes (Bush/Cheney energy bill for one) where Obama voted with Bush and McCain voted against it. Obama also voted with Bush on FISA. It is all in the details.



@ Kiptin:

Who needs VA when Obama apparently has the advantage in OH?

That is, if you put any faith into these "polls", which I think have dubious predictive power.


Alan Abramowitz:

These results look like they were produced by a random number generator.



HAHA! Good one! Because the Teller of the Tall Tale of Tuzla is such a great foreign policy wiz!!!

ROTFLMAO @ hillbots!!!

Poor mccain - Is he still alive? Where is he? Someone check to make sure he is still breathing......



Cindy's dad, James Hensley played a prominent role in McCain's rise to prominence in Arizona politics. His background is very colorful and sordid. Hensley was a convicted bootlegger with ties to organized crime. This story is from The Phoenix New Times. It was written during the 2000 campaign. Kiptin will probably say So What! But I think the evangelicals probably would be very interested in this story. It's theme is political corruption related to the liquor industry He probably wouldn't find this story very interesting. But the many of you probably would. So here's the link-

Here are a few excerpts-
"A centerpiece in McCain's remarkable and sudden rise to national prominence is his promise of campaign-finance reform.
Yet McCain has relied heavily on the financial contributions from big corporate donors -- with the liquor and beer industry near the top of the list. McCain won -- one could say bought -- his first election to the House of Representatives in 1982 with lavish sums of Hensley beer money. "

"Since 1982, Hensley & Company employees have donated almost $200,000 to federal political candidates and campaigns. Since 1996, they've given Arizona state-level candidates more than $18,755.
McCain himself has received more than $60,000 from James Hensley and his employees -- and tens of thousands more from other beer-related interests.
John McCain benefits from James Hensley's money.
James Hensley benefits from John McCain's political power.
While McCain blasts his colleagues for falling prey to the influences of campaign contributions, the senator's record reveals his quiet support for the business that launched and has helped maintain his career. McCain declined to be interviewed for this story."

"A federal jury in U.S. District Court of Arizona in March 1948 convicted James Hensley on seven counts of filing false liquor records in addition to the conspiracy charge. Eugene was convicted on 23 counts of filing false statements and the conspiracy count. Eugene was sentenced to one year in prison, and James to six months."

"James Hensley profited handsomely from his association with liquor magnate Kemper Marley, a man police suspect ordered the 1976 murder of Arizona Republic reporter Don Bolles, who had written about Marley's business and political dealings. The man convicted of placing a bomb beneath Bolles' car testified that Marley also wanted former Arizona governor and then-attorney general Bruce Babbitt murdered because Babbitt had filed an antitrust lawsuit against the liquor industry in 1975. (Marley, who died in 1990, was never charged in the Bolles case. Babbitt is now U.S. Secretary of the Interior.) "

"Today, Phoenix-based Hensley & Company is the nation's fifth-largest beer wholesaler -- a privately held business that 80-year-old James Hensley still controls. He built the Budweiser distributorship into at least a $200 million-a-year business, with annual sales of more than 20 million cases of beer.
James Hensley owns nearly all of the voting stock, and most of the rest of the closely held securities are in trusts for his grandchildren or owned by his daughter, 45-year-old Cindy Hensley McCain -- wife of U.S. Senator and presidential hopeful John McCain."

"A centerpiece in McCain's remarkable and sudden rise to national prominence is his promise of campaign-finance reform.
Yet McCain has relied heavily on the financial contributions from big corporate donors -- with the liquor and beer industry near the top of the list. McCain won -- one could say bought -- his first election to the House of Representatives in 1982 with lavish sums of Hensley beer money. "

"In 1982, John and Cindy McCain reported an income of $801,056. Of that, the only amount unrelated to Hensley was McCain's $31,038 Navy pension.
McCain lent $167,000 to his campaign -- a huge chunk of the $569,545 it took to get him elected that year. (Another major contributor that year was Charles H Keating, a former Navy fighter pilot who later ensnarled McCain in the biggest scandal of his political career.) "

"...there is one area where it is unlikely that John McCain will ever emerge as a champion of reform: alcohol.
When he was elected to Congress, McCain swore he'd recuse himself on all votes related to the alcohol industry, given his father-in-law's and wife's business. A New Times analysis of McCain's voting record since 1983 reveals that he has in fact recused himself on the two dozen or so alcohol-related bills that required a voice vote on the floor of the House and then the Senate, while McCain has served in those respective bodies. The bills examined dealt specifically with alcohol: examples include legislation to toughen drunken-driving laws and lower alcohol excise taxes. But such votes are relatively insignificant when compared to other powers endowed on a senator -- particularly a senior senator who chairs an influential committee.
Particularly if the senator is John McCain, the committee is the powerful Senate Commerce Committee and the issue is alcohol.
The Senate Commerce Committee has a number of alcohol-related issues in its purview, including the labeling of alcoholic beverages and alcohol advertising. But you wouldn't know it from looking at the committee's agenda since McCain took its reins three years ago."

"John McCain's influence regarding alcohol-related legislation comes from his inaction, rather than action. As a committee chairman, McCain has the unilateral power to kill a bill simply by refusing to put it on a committee agenda or schedule hearings.
And since McCain was elected chairman of the committee in January 1997, that's exactly what has happened."

"Last month, Anheuser-Busch announced it would once again serve as the primary sponsor of the four official presidential debates to be held this fall -- the last one in St. Louis, the company's hometown. The cost of the local debate, $550,000, was released, but the total amount Anheuser-Busch will spend to sponsor the events was not made available.

"Unless George W. Bush delivers a powerful counterpunch to McCain's swelling bandwagon, John McCain will be standing on the Republican party podium for the debates paid for by the King of Beers.
At his side will be Ms. Bud.
Back home in Phoenix, beer baron James Willis Hensley might smile about the fabulous return on his political investment. "



This may actually get votes for McCain. Budweiser is a popular beverage.



Nice try Kiptin! You remember 2000 and Bush's drunk driving arrest. I'm posting this on a Dem site. This place is deadsville!



We are seeing these polls don't translate into votes.



These polls are good news for Obama. They show New Mexico leaning his way. And while they suggest that he's still the underdog in Virginia, they show Ohio leaning his way as well. Recent conventional wisdom has had Virginia (13 EVs) going Obama's way, and Ohio (20 EVs) going McCain's way. Obama would gladly take the reverse, as it would net him 7 more electoral votes.



Assuming they did actually ask who the respondents would vote for president, when the second half of these polls are released, it will be interesting to see who gets through the likely voter screen.




The crosstabs are fairly mad on this and the Wisconsin results appear to be reversed the over 65 results have been superimposed some how on the 19-34 year old demmo!

Virgina is the only presdidential published todate. To tired to go through it but on the Surveyusa site.



I posted this yesterday:
Here's Virginia (Survey USA)
Asked of 655 likely voters

Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.9%

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?

48% McCain (R)
47% Obama (D)
3% Other
2% Undecided

I think the Republican weighting maybe a tad overweighted.



So... zotz... how does Cindy's family ownership in beer distributorship equate to a drunk driving arrest?

Anyway I was trying to be cute before, but I had already seen this so-called "story." It pales when compared to associating with people like Ayers. So the 1960s Ayers should not tarnish Obama, but the 1940s Hensley should? (The same Hensley who won a distinguished flying cross from WWII?)

And do you really think the evangelicals will choose to vote for Obama who is pro-choice and really screwed up on the late term abortion issue?

How desperate is Obamanation getting these days?


Clint Cooper:

lol at Survey USA.

Here are Survey USA's crosstabs:

Republicans 98%
Democrats 1%
Independents 1%

White people 98%
Black people, a lot of whom support McCain 1%
Hispanic people and some other people 1%


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