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POLL: SurveyUSA MD, VA


SurveyUSA

Virginia
Obama 60, Clinton 38... McCain 48, Huckabee 37, Paul 7

Maryland
Obama 55, Clinton 32... McCain 52, Huckabee 26, Paul 10

We encourage our readers to click through to see field dates, sample sizes, margins of sampling error, target populations and addition results.

 

Comments
SCAron:

If Ohio and Texas could potentially end the Democratic race, why haven't any pollsters started looking at them? How long does it take to set a poll up? If one company did either state the survey would be the talk of the media for a day or two (especially if one candidate was doing better/worse than anticipated).

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strricha12:

SCAron, the latest OH, PA and TX polls have Hillary leading by significant margins, however, with Obama's momentum and friendly media, Obama might close those gaps as well. The only thing I see hampering Obama is that Rezco trial which is on its way. If he's lucky, the media wont touch it.

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Mike:

Among Hispanics, Obama is up 56-44 in VA, and 65-33 in Maryland. If these results hold up tomorrow, it's a great sign that Obama is expanding his base. Obama is also about tied among white voters in both states. However, the male/female, white-collar/blue-collar, young/old, high education/low education gaps appear to persist.

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richard Pollara:

Mike: I would not make too much of the Hispanic numbers. I am not familar with Virginia, but I do know that Hispanics in Maryland and the DC suburbs tend to be much wealthier than those in other parts of the country. The divides that seem to be holding (as you pointed out in your post) are race, class, age and gender.

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Mark Blumenthal:

One more important point about the Hispanic subgroups: Both are tiny -- 3% of the overall sample in both MD & VA. Thus, among their samples of likely Democratic primary voters, SurveyUSA interviewed somewhere between 15 to 21 Hispanic respondents in Maryland and 19 to 27 in Virginia. Few pollsters consider those large enough to yield reliable results.

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Mike:

That's true Mark. I would be interested to see if Obama's lead among Hispanics held up in the elections tomorrow, but if it's really only 3%, they won't even show up in the exit polls.

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Mike:

The Constituent Dynamics poll you posted also shows Hispanics going about 2-1 for Obama. That poll had a much larger sample size than Survey USA, so there were several hundred Hispanics polled in each state. Unfortunately, well over 1/3 of Hispanics were undecided in the Constituent Dynamics poll, so I don't know how useful the result is.

I also noticed a possible Bradley and reverse Bradley effect. In Constituent Dynamics' VA poll, Obama leads among white voters 44-35, with 21% undecided. Survey USA had white voters going for Clinton 49-47, so most of those undecided voters might end up voting for Clinton. Perhaps many didn't want to say they would vote for the white candidate?

The reverse Bradley effect is even more stark. Constituent Dynamics had black voters going 60-15 for Obama, with 25% undecided. This compares with Survey USA which had black voters 86-13 for Obama. Perhaps many black voters didn't want to say they would vote for the black candidate?

If the Bradley effect is caused by voters who claim to be undecided rather than voters who outright lie about whom they will support, then Survey USA might minimize this effect by managing to get its undecided voter count so low.

It will be interesting to see the exit polls tomorrow.

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SCAron:

strricha: What polls are you referring to, as I've only been able to find one from this year for OH, one for PA and none for TX.

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