Pollster.com

Wow. Is this the same state that voted for Mondale? Pawlenty could make a real difference if this state is really this close. Coleman should easily defeat Franken.....I am a bit shocked this state continues to be this close.

This SurveyUSA poll is still within margin of error. I am waiting for Pollster to change their map from dark blue--

RCP has Minnesota as a toss-up. They averaged the last Rasmussen Poll (Obama 49/McCain 45), Quinnipiac (Obama 46/McCain 44) and the June Survey USA poll for a total of +2.3 Obama. This new poll will make it +2.7.

Yes, Coleman dropping below 50% does not bode well for an incumbent.

I agree, luckily for Coleman, Franken is a walking bag of nuts.

Oops.. regarding the map color of Minnesota... Make my first comment "I am waiting for Pollster to change their map from LIGHT blue"-- I am thinking should be toss-up as I already implied above.

I think McCain will take this state. The poll shows that he is getting a greater pull on the independents. With the 4% undecided, he should pull thee out of the 4. McCain should win this one is a squeaker. You know, if you talk to people from Minn. they speak with a Canadian accent. I think a lot of them are 2nd and 3rd Canadians so this poll is odd because Canadians are really liberal. Look at the Michigan governor; she was born in Canadian.

The tragedy of the last eight years calls for the senate to have one real comedian on hand, and though Franken's star doesn't exactly seem to be rising, Coleman's lead in this poll is half what it was in June.

I wonder how much mileage Coleman's gotten out of turning Franken's tax mixup into a scandal. As I understand it, Al did what his accountant told him to do and ended up paying the right taxes in the wrong places. When he found out, he paid the right taxes in the right places. If that's true, I'll take Al's honest mistake to the neocon's looting, lying and moralizing any day. At least Franken doesn't see taxes as just something the little people pay. Is there more to it?

Admittedly Franken's not a particularly strong candidate, but he's good enough, smart enough, and maybe by November enough people will like him.

Hey Minnesotans elected a wrestler for governor; so they might elect a comedian for senator. It only proves that they take wrestling serious, and they think politics is a joke.

In the absence of some real electoral reform (as opposed to the half-baked, easily circumvented attempts so far), politics is a joke. How else can you explain Dubya? At least Al Franken gets it.

Wrestlers are more like clowns than comedians.

KipTin, the light blue map apparently already takes this latest poll into account: http://www.pollster.com/polls/mn/08-mn-pres-ge-mvo.php

One might prefer a different method--e.g., www.electoral-vote.com's practice of using only (a) the latest poll and (b) polls taken within one week of it. But Mark's method does take older polls into account, though they are given less weight than recent ones.

Basil:

I remember that bit on SNL. Funny post!

Minnesota since June--
SurveyUSA 8/13-14/08 McCain 45 Obama 47
Rasmussen 8/13/08 McCain 45 Obama 49
Rasmussen 7/22/08 McCain 39 Obama 52
Quinnipiac 7/14-22/08 McCain 44 Obama 46
Rasmussen 7/10/08 McCain 34 Obama 52

Obama is leading in Minnesota, but its a small lead, probably around 2-4%, unless the convention gives him a big boost there Obama will probably carry the state

Obama is leading in Minnesota, but its a small lead, probably around 2-4%, unless the convention gives McCain a big boost there Obama will probably carry the state

I've lived in Minnesota for almost my entire life and I will tell you this is big Obama country. Even if McCain picks Pawlenty he will not win the state. Keep in mind - Pawlenty has never won 50% of the vote in his two elections, and he ran as a Democrat both times.

While Franken will get killed here, MN to the McCain campaign is GA to the Obama campaign. They'll compete and think they have a shot but on election night, these states will remain their usual colors.

Hmmm, Republican 28%, Democrat 34%, independents 24%. Who are the other 14%?

So the MN poll numbers are total fiction?

The polls show a drastic movement to McCain. McCain might carry this state.

The polls show a drastic movement to McCain. McCain might carry this state.

From the primaries, I recall that SUSA adjusts it's sample demographics to the population, and then lets LVs fall where they may.
John McCain is so close only because in the youngest age group (18-34), Obama is barely ahead 51-43 in MN. Compare this to Gallup: Obama is ahead 2:1 among 18-29 nationally.
This poll probably just reflects an enthusiasm dip in Obama's support that was also seen in other polls post-June, but perhaps higher among young voters in MN.
So McCain can pick Pawlenty, and spend $$$ in MN all he wants - but Obama's ground game and the looming prospect of a McCain Presidency (with more wars - including another Cold War?) should turn out enough young voters in November to keep MN blue. FYI, Kerry carried MN/18-29 voters 57-41 in 2004 (CNN exit poll).

I don't even think with Pawlenty on the ticket, McCain can win this state, not in the context of the lack of enthusiasm there is for McCain, in the polls.

There is already a well established Gap between Obama and McCain with women.After the session with Paster Rick, Obama's lead will be extended. I'll go through all the other demos again but I really don't want to cause, too much apparently for Player to take in, with what the polls are actually saying. The weighting on this one on 18-29 would appear to have a fault line in it, so I am not convinced, but hey this is in line with what the polls are generally showing!

This is a contest that will be decided by the West and Mid-West states, so whilst all of these states are contested Obama looks a lot better in Iowa, Indiana and indeed Ohio than McCain looks in Minn etc. with due respect - Player - wishful thinking again.

Obama 47, McCain 45
(June: Obama 47, McCain 46)

It was 1 point lead in June and it is 2 points now. Obama has 47% in both and McCain's number dropped 1% to 45%. How can some people read this as decline in Obama's support? Do some of us need Math 101?

No the poll numbers are not fiction, both Quinnipiac and rasmussen have showed the race tightening. This poll shows the race as very tight, same as the last SUSA poll. But I think it is reasonable to ask why the MN race is tight. If Obama wins the democrats by a similiar margin as McCain wins the republicans and splits the independents, then Obama should have a relatively comfortable win. The cross-tabs would suggest this is roughly what is happening. However the 14% of voters, who for some reason didn't say what their party id or ideology was, are going to McCain by a margin of about 60/40. So this poll certainly appears to be good news for McCain but it would interesting to know where his relative strength is coming from, and whether it is sustainable.
Another interesting factor is (even given only 86% of voters answered the question) the very low number of self-described liberals, 15% compared to the 24% in the 2004 exit poll. Does anyone know if MN has turned more conservative over the last 4 years?

No, Minnesota is not trending more conservative. In 2006 the exit poll on the senate race was 25% self-identified liberals, 30% self-identified conservatives.

Democrats never lose when the liberal percentage is 24% or higher. Not on the presidential side, anyway. An incumbent GOP senator can overcome it if the opponent is flawed.

I'm glad to see someone focus on the liberal/conservative percentage. I probably should shut up about it for betting purposes, but that variable is comically ignored.

This poll has Obama leading the Twin Cities by a single point.

Not. Going. To. Happen.

lol at the delusional people on this site.

Survey USA has become THE WORST pollster in the country. They haven't a clue as to what they are doing. None.

They will be thoroughly embarassed on election day.