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POLL: SurveyUSA North Carolina (5/2-4)


SurveyUSA
n=810

North Carolina
Obama 50, Clinton 45

 

Comments
mago:

Well, SUSA commands respect. But really? 25% already voted? If the 390K who have voted turn out to be just 1/4 of the total, that will be truly massive turnout. This would also mean that they're predicting only about 29% of tomorrow's voters will be AA.

After TX, I make no predictions, but it will be something if this turns out to be true.

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RS:

@mago:
PPP also says early voters were 29% - not that different. Though they appear to assume African-Americans will be 33% of election-day turnout, so overall African-American fraction is 35%. Add the extra 3% African-American turnout to SUSA's results, and you get PPP's results.

Though I don't like SUSA saying
"But there is offsetting momentum among younger voters, some of whom may be first-time voters, and not all of whom may show-up at the precinct." [emphasis added]

Isn't your likely-voter screen supposed to take care of that? Jeez.

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mago:

Well, it's an interesting question when you're doing polling: it stands to reason that people who say "I voted for X" are more likely to vote than people who say "I intend to vote for X," but I don't know how you weight for that.

25% and 29% are pretty similar, though they lead to predictions of election-day turnout that differ by about 235K.

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THE ZOGBY POLL AND EVERTIME HE POLLS IN PRIMARY AND NOT CAUCESSES HE IS OFF BY 10-20 POINTS LIKE OHIO CALIF.,NEW HAMpHIRE- AND WHEN IT COMES TO PRIMARIES ARG AND SURVEY USA USAULLY GET IT RIGHT THEY BOTH POLLS WERE DEAD ON IN CALF. NEW YORK OHIO AND FLORIDA!!! SO SURVEY USA AND ARG GET IT RIGHT IN PRIMARIES AND ZOGBY only IN CAUCASES---- imagine zogby said obama would win ohio by one point!!!NEW JERSEY AND MASSETUSSETTS, ALSO SURVEY GOT EXACTLY RIGHT,ZOGBY WAS OFFIN NEW JERSEY BY 10 POINTS AND IN MASS. HE WAS OFF BY 12 POINTS

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Cristobal:

Mark,

You are again trying to spin polling numbers on this website and it is driving me NUTS!! You are clearly a Clinton supporter because you are actually counting Florida. You need to look at polling results before you post on here. I can't make you stop commenting on polls with a half functioning brain, but I will ask that you make your comments with sources so we can have information to agree or disagree with you. I am sure that Mark and others on here look at your comments and get irritated and frustrated. What you have been doing is not commenting or analysing but spinning fact. While I admire your passion for politics...you need to respect pollers and learn the most important thing which is to allow yourself to be wrong from time to time. Hope you learn and become more a tune to making more intelectual comments on this great site.

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ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS LOOK AT THE FACTS SURVEY USA IS THE BEST IN THE BUSINESS JUST CLICK ON THE STATE POLLS, THEY ARE THE MOST ACCURATE,SURVEY USA, AND NOW THAT RIGHT NOW BREAKING NEWS OBAMA PAID OFF HEAD TEAMSTERS FOR THEIR ENDORSEMENT,HE SAIDS IT IN HIS OWN WORDS,HILLARY WILL WIN INDIANA BY 15-18,AND SQUEEK OUT NORTH CAROLINA BY 3 BECAUSE OF THE GASOLINE THING, BITTERGATE, JEREMIA WRONG, AND NOW FOR PAYINGOFF THE HEAD OF THE TEAMSTERS FOR THEIR ENDORSEMNT,HUGE NEWS1!!!!

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MISSOURI SURVEY WAS THE ONLY TIME IT WAS OFF, AND THAT WAS BECAUSE CLARE MCKASKILL, WAS IN RURAL AREAS ALL OVER THE PLACE CAMPAIGNING, FOR HIM, AND BITTEGATE AND WRIGHT GATE HAD NOT SURFACED, EVER SINCE BITTERGATE AND WRIGHT GATE. USA SURVEY IS RIGHT ON THEMONEY AND EVEN BEFORE THAT THEY WERE RIGHT ON THE MONEY!!

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Mike_in_CA:

marksnyder,

go away you're being weird.

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richard pollara:

I hate to admit it but Mark has some really good points. The world is a lot different than on Feb. 5. If you assume that Indiana and Missouri are similar then it seems reasonable to assume that Mrs. Clinton, given the changed environment would do much better tomorrow than she did in Missouri. But more to Mark's point, I think Claire McCaskill had a huge impact in Missouri (and nationally) She has been his single best surrogate. Ted Kennedy got a lot of attention, but McCaskill's endorsement said that it was ok for older white women to support Obama. There is no such surrogate in Indiana. My gut is that Hillary nails Indiana and comes very close in NC. I am a big believer in winning the last weekend before an elecetion. I am not quite sure why the Obama camp doesn't get it but they tanked another "final weekend". Sunday was very bad and the commentary today has been, tired, defensive, bored, elitist. If tomorrow turns out poorly then he really needs to retool.

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RS:

Much as I hate to comment on someone who insists on SHOUTING all the time:
The reason Senator Obama won Missouri was because of the urban areas - till St Louis came in, the AP called MO for Senator Clinton. So that's a wrong point right there.

As for winning the last weekend, I thought the reports out of Senator Obama's Sunday campaigning - walking about IN neighborhoods - were good. I guess it depends on what color lenses you wear.

As for the Teamsters - Senator Obama had called for removal of Federal oversight - surprise for a Democrat! (not!) - in 2004 during his Senate run. Senator Clinton also pretty much agrees with his position, so it is quite hypocritical of her to criticize Senator Obama's position. Of course, when has a sense of shame/hypocrisy stopped the Clinton campaign? [Yes, I am an Obama supporter. But look up Ben Smith's blog or TPM.]

As for endorsements in IN, Lee Hamilton and the mayors of Evansville and Bloomington, among others, support Senator Obama. I read someplace that Hamilton was canvassing for Obama in southern Indiana, so if that's true, that might be quite useful.

To end, people - just do not pay any attention to folks whose CAPS-lock is permanently on. Particularly when they also do not make any sense (if you do get far enough to read the post).

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richard pollara:

RS: In Missouri the female vote split evenly. I think that McCaskill had a role in that. Regarding the final weekend, the reviews of him on MTP were tepid at best. Alessandra Stanely's review in today's Times was particularily damning (Clinton Steals Show, While Obama Endures Another, NYTimes, May 5, 2008). Even on MSNBC the words used to describe him were tired and bored. Clinton by contrast was called "in the grove" "on her game". CNN said she had transformed herself from Eleanor Roosevelt to Huey Long. Obama may have looked good walking the streets in Indiana but the presidency runs through MTP and he did not do well there. Maybe I am wrong but fighters who lose the 15th round usually lose the fight.

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airhawk86:

I wont pretend to know whats going to happen tomorrow, but these my predictions are:

Indiana clinton by 9
North carolina Obama by 5

NOW I see some potential bad enws for Obama in this poll

First, Obama is leading 57-41 amongst the 25% that already voted.

In Texas 26% of voters, voted early. They went 58-41 for Obama. Could we see a simlar result in NC, who knows, but the numbers are similar

If this SUSA poll is accurate in there claim that 25% of voters have already voted going 57-41 for Obama, THAT IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR Him


why exactly, well we know 390,000 have alrady voted 40% AA. Thats means the total turnout will be about 1.55 million, which is very strong turnout, and it is slightly less than the percerage of voters who turned out in PA. so that seems about right.

Here is Obama's problem. He leads amongst already voted 57-41. We know 40% are AA, and we know he is going to win AA about 9 to 1. (pretty safe assumption) so we can probably assume he is winning early AA voters 9 to 1. Which means he is losing non-black voters by 28 points to Hillary. if thoses numbers hold, and AA turnout ends up at 32% of total electorate (SUSA projection) the result would be Obama 50.5 Clinton 49.5.

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Shadar:

I've said it before but my prediction is

Indy - Clinton by 5 (maybe 6)
NC - Obama by 15

You might be surprised by that NC number, but based on PA I think we're seeing Clinton's ceiling as well as a massive over-performance for Obama in early voting. I don't think the polling has fully picked it up. I could be wrong, guess we'll see tomorrow.

I'd say I am likely to be low-balling both of those. I think there is a greater chance of seeing a 16+ for Obama in NC than a 14 or less and a better chance of a 6+ for Clinton in Indy rather than a 4 or less. But I wouldn't be totally shocked to see a 2-3 point race in Indy and a 20 point blowout in NC... I just doubt it. I also wouldn't be totally shocked to see a 10 point NC and a 10 point Indy.

To change the momentum Hillary needs to out-margin Obama when you combine the states. Thus if Obama gets +5 in NC she needs +6 in Indy. That's the bare minimum she needs. If he blows out NC and she squeaks by in Indy it's over. 25+ Super's will come out for Obama.

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airhawk86:

Do you really thin 57-41 Obama in early voting in strong. Considering 40% AA, and how he was up more than that in Texas and lost?

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RS:

@richard pollara:
Actually, Senator Clinton won White women 59-38 according to the exit polls.

But the point being made was that Senator McCaskill helped out Senator Obama in rural areas - which I don't think was the case. She might have helped with the White women vote - but that's different.

By the way, if you really want a boxing analogy - it's not going to be a knockout. In that case, a fighter might a late round, but can win on points. I like the football analogy better - the team with most points scored wins the game, even if the opposition has more passing yards, better uniforms, whatever.

:-)

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IdahoMulato:

This is my prediction:

NC: Obama 58; Clinton 42
IN: Obama 50.5 Ckunton 49.5

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