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POLL: SurveyUSA Virginia


SurveyUSA
6/20-22/08 - 630 LV, 4%

Virginia
Obama 49%, McCain 47%

 

Comments
FleetAdmiralJ:

Well, this makes 4 straight polls with Obama up in Virginia (and 2% seems more in line with reality than SUSA's last poll which had Obama up 7%)

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Undecided:

Yes... the last SurveyUSA poll was SurveyUSA (5/16-18/08) Obama 49 and McCain 42. Obama is still at 49 and McCain gained 5 points.

I see in the VP match ups that Claire McCaskill (Senator Missouri) is a drag on Obama (losing combination) and Tim Kaine (Governor of Virginia) does not fare very much better. I do not know why they used Governor Strickland (Ohio) since he has already said NO to VP.

And why not test Romney with McCain? If a pollster is going to test a very wealthy Jewish economic guru (Bloomberg) then why not a very wealthy Mormon economic guy?

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OGLiberal:

Whether or not 2% is just right or 7% is too high, I don't know. But like other recent SUSA state polls, the differences in the underlying demos between their June polls and May polls are just wacky. For example, in May, SUSA had Obama winning over male voters, 48-44. This month, they have McCain winning over these voters 58-40. Is that kind of shift in one month's time even possible? He went from a 66-27 lead Northeast VA in May to a 58-36 lead in June. Again, that's a huge shift, leading me to believe that either May or June was way off. Also, in May, the Northeast represented 30% of those polled. This month, that region is down to 27% while the Shenandoah Valley - very unfriendly territory for Obama - went from 25% in May to 29% in June. I have to think that the 30-25 split between the two regions is closer to reality.

Finally, the most unbelievable stat of all, which makes me think that this June poll is the flawed one. In May, Obama was winning black voters in VA - representing 18% of those polled - 92-7. In June, he's winning them over - again, 18% of those polled - 74-25%

That, my friends, is just not possible. Sorry, but Obama is not losing 25% of Virginia's black voters to McCain. And that swing is just ridiculous, even if 92-7 overstated Obama's support among black VA voters.

This looks like an outlier based on the underlying demos. A 7pt lead may have been too high but I have to believe it's higher 2pts if he can pull a lead like that in a poll that has him losing 25% of the black voters to McCain.

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Undecided:

I will point out that the previous SurveyUSA poll had Obama at 49% and there were 9% undecided.

This most recent poll still has Obama at 49% with 4% undecided.

A 5% change in undecided apparently going for McCain.

49% is pretty good and no poll to date has Obama over 49% in Virginia.

What would be worrisome for the Obama campaign is if his numbers start declining, rather than remaining stable.


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OGLiberal:

Still, what about those AA numbers. If Kerry got 88% of the AA vote in 2004, wouldn't we at least expect Obama to match that. This latest poll has him getting on 74 v. McCain's 25 (????)

And would the 5% undecided making a decision since the last poll and overwhelmingly going for McCain be the cause of the huge male voter shift away from Obama and to McCain.

Something isn't right here...although I'll as a Dem, I'll take Obama at 49% in VA any day.

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Undecided:

This poll is just a random sample of 630. Statistically, one does not expect to find the same "demographics" poll to poll, but overall the mean (average) of the samples will reflect the general population (in this case--Virginia). And that is why I focused on the fact that Obama has the same 49%.

With only 18% being black voters it does not take many to give McCain 25% of the poll vote. That is 28 people for McCain and 84 for Obama.

Notably, in this last poll McCain gained among Independents and Obama lost (10 point swing). With party affiliation being relatively stable, I think that is the variable to watch where it is down to 8% undecided from 14%.

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Jacob S:

Well, I am a skeptic of SurveyUSA. However, I believe that McCain MUST win Virginia in the fall, if he is going to have any serious chance of winning the election. This poll should not be very encouraging for McCain.

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brambster:

@OGLiberal

I have to wonder how they gather their demographic data, and if the process itself leads to a skewing of the stats. This may in fact be a big problem with IVR polls.

As we saw in some of the Democratic primaries, there were a measureable number of Republicans willing to cross over to vote for Hillary just to throw in a monkey wrench. This was evident from the big change in the exit polls showing registered/identified Republicans suddenly favoring Hillary by wide margins following the start of Operation Chaos.

If these IVR polls are identifying voters' demographics based on IVR technology, it is very likely that measureable numbers of people are lying and skewing the results. I too don't see how a poll could show McCain with 25% of the AA vote...unless people lied or somehow otherwise mistakenly identified themselves as AA to an IVR system. I'll bet that doesn't happen nearly as much when there is a person on the other line.

Since SurveyUSA weights on demographics only, this could swing the numbers enough for a few percentage points easily given marked propensity for one group to misidentify themselves.

It's not that Democrats are incapable of doing this too, but identifying yourself as a white male isn't a stretch, but falsely identifying yourself as an AA and choosing McCain would fit in perfectly when there is an AA party nominee.

I'll have to look at 2004 SurveyUSA polls and see what sort of AA divergence there was for Kerry.

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