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POLL: SurveyUSA, Zogby, InsiderAdvantage


SurveyUSA

California
Clinton 52, Obama 42... McCain 39, Romney 38

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

New Polls in California, New York, New Jersey, Georgia, and Missouri.

InsiderAdvantage

New Polls in Georgia and Alabama.

 

Comments
Bryan :

Are the California primaries closed primaries?

Zogby apparently includes Independents in their Democratic polling for that state.

"Obama has built a sturdy lead here, among both Democrats and independents..."

Can someone clarify?

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Michael X:

In CA, Independents could vote in the Democratic primary, but not Republicans, so that in theory should help Obama and hurt McCain.

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Paul:

California's Primary is OPEN for DEMS and Closed for GOP

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kristoph:

Zogby is polling in English only and has Latino's at 16% of LV (last I checked).

SurveyUSA is polling in English and Spanish and has Latino's at 27% (last I checked).

Latino's are overwhelmingly supporting Clinton.

I think this is the reason for the skew.

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Anybody have any thoughts on why the polls in California that allow a higher undecided rate have Obama up, while the two that have undecideds at 2% have Clinton up?

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Hector Tobar:

In the 2004 Democratic primary, Latinos made up 16% of the electorate. I'd expect it to be 18% to 20% this time, so Zogby is likely closer to the mark.

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Korn:

Well..

the last minute undecided voter specially women are leaning toward Hillary so that will play a big role. And Hector was right the latinos vote is about 20% in CA. Zogby has 16% and SurveyUSA has 26% statistically they both are close.

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Bklyn:

To the extent that making a statement of this kind is even valid, 16% and 26% are *not* statistically close to 20%. Either one of these pollsters is going to be deeply embarrassed today or both are going to be "somewhat" wrong.

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Mark Blumenthal:

kristoph, Brkly & others:

Where exactly does Zogby report the racial composition of his samples?

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RS:

Anybody know what Zogby means by "[Obama] has dramatically cut into Clinton´┐Żs lead among Hispanic voters"? That could make a difference, given Obama's recent endorsement by La'Opinion.

Also, SurveyUSA has Clinton ahead in all age groups, while Zogby has Obama ahead in all age groups except 65+. Weird.

Finally, SurveyUSA appears to include already-voted and likely-to-vote. What about Zogby?

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Dj:

The Democrat primary in California is open to Independants while the Republican primary is not.

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Korn:

Dose anybody know how many CA voter already cast their vote prior Super Tuesday?

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Michael X:

SF Chronicle said an estimated 2 million votes are casted early in CA. The total votes are expected to be 8.9 million.

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Mark, this may be a stupid question, but here goes - some of the state graphs have orange dots indicating very recent poll results for Edwards in the customary 10 - 15% range, but it looks as though the polls they correspond to in the table have Edwards zeroed out. For example, see California. Are the numbers in the table that have Edwards zeroed out incorporating "second choice" answers for Edwards supporters? Or something?

Thanks again for producing such a consistently excellent website.

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Henry:

Wow.

Today SurveyUSA showing Clinton up 10 points in CA, Zogby showing Obama up 13 (!!) points!

haha... someone is wrong here! Probably both.

I'm going to cast my ballot for Obama now.

Then it's time to sit back and watch the news come in.

Fun day today. :)

Peace
Henry

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Brian:

I'm not entirely sure but it seems like you can get ballots in spanish in California. Can anybody confirm or disprove this? If that's so, I wonder how many of the votes are done on spanish ballots.

I ask this b/c the arguement that Zogby conducts polls in english while surveyUSA conducts polls in spanish and english seems entirely possible. It would also provide an explanation for why Zogby has both a lower hispanic voter turnout and why it seems to indicate that Obama has cut into Clinton's lead among Hispanic voters. Presumably more americanized (beter at english) hispanic voters would vote more like white voters than less americanized latinos. However, it also seems like the more americanized latinos would be more likely to vote.

I suspect that if spanish ballots are relatively frequent, SurveyUSA is probably correct. If they are infrequent, Zogby is probably accurate.

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Mike Barnes:

I cast my vote for Hillary. I saw young people voting for her or at least saying they would.

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Alex:

I am regularly receiving e-mail invitations from Zogby to participate in his online polls. Are those are the polls we are talking about here?
If it's indeed an online poll, then it undersamples working class folk - a Clinton constituency.

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Henry:

Alex,

I'm almost positive those online polls you're invited to join in on are not the same polls as the Zogby polls you see reported here and nationally and such.

Obviously, voluntary online polls will always have a bias towards the younger [more internet proficient] croud so they aren't going to be very accurate except as polls of "internet users" or something.

GO OBAMA!

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