August 19, 2008
POLL: Susquehanna Pennsylvania (8/11-14)
Susquehanna Polling and Research
8/11-14/08; 700 LV, 3.7%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Pennsylvania
Obama 46, McCain 41
(May: Obama 46, McCain 39)
By Eric Dienstfrey on August 19, 2008 5:02 PM | Permalink
Comments
John Kerry and Al Gore both won PA. Given the demographics of PA, any Dem should be at least 10 pts ahead. 5 pts is almost within the margin of error. If these polls don't widen soon, Obama will need to spend more resources in PA than he ever imagined.
Don't be foolish Patrick, in 2004 Kerry only won by 2% over Bush, Obama leading by 5% is a much stronger lead
Check the internals..the 18-40 age group is so under-represented vs 2004 exit polls as to be criminal:
23% age 44 and under vs 2004 exit poll of 49%.
Are all the young people at the beach?
Interesting sample. Only 6% of voters are between 18-29 (in 2004 it was 21%) and 34% are over 60 (in 04 it was 22%). African-American voters make up 8 percent of this poll, (down from 13% in 2004). Despite this the party id totals seem to be slightly skewed in the democrats favour, 37-29, (it was +2 in 2004).
In this state it will depend on the conservative base being energized. If they come out in force and vote, the republicans will win it. Right now they are luke warm towards McCain. This poll was conducted before the religious forum. There could be a positive bounce for McCain in a latter poll.Outside of the two major cities, this sate is the exact replica of rural North Carolina.
LOL at this poll. Their sample is only 8% black.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!
While I think this state is securely in Obama's corner for the time being, I think a Joe Biden selection secures the state and the election for Obama.
Posted on August 19, 2008 5:58 PM