Pollster.com

Wow! Big improvement for McCain.

More confirmation that there's a pro McCain trend..........

This is a 10 point swing and if you put the others in there it is a 14 point swing. This looks as if the public has decided that Obama needs more experience.

McCain is consolidating his base while voters are doubtful about Obama - yet the Maverick POW with 20 years Washington credentials STILL cannot poll ahead of a one-term, black Senator with no experience.

Why isn't McCain farther ahead?

Heheh, I knew the Obama supporters would see a McCain pickup of 10-14 points good news for Obama somehow!! If the undecideds start jumping on board with this trend, kiss Obama goodnight.

The states pollster just listed are also trending McCain. NC McCain increasing his lead by 3...FL went from +2 Obama to +2 McCain...and in PA McCain picked up 2 more on Obama. Chipping away at some of those solid blue states. Minn yesterday, McCain is definately tranding positive right now.

I guess prople have started seeing the truth about NObama:
Empty suit full of hot air.
Reads well from teleprompter, but when asked a difficult policy question: "a ah blah aah"
Has BLANK resume (Sorry was Community Organizer!)

You can try to spin it any way you want, but let's face facts: these are very disappointing numbers for Obama. He's the "exciting new candidate of change" in a country where the vast majority of voters are disgusted with the president and his party. In a generic "Democrat against Republican" poll, the Democrat comes out about 15 pts ahead. And yet Obama is statistically tied with McCain more than 2 months after being awarded the nomination (by the national press and an arbitrary primary system). Obama should be at least 15 points ahead (like Dukakis was at this point in 1988). I think a lot of independents, moderate Dems (i.e. the "Reagan Democrats", and a lot of Hillary supporters (like me) are just taking a closer look at Obama and realizing that it's not only a lack of experience he has; it's a total lack of substance or a compelling record. Check out Politico's electoral map. It's a lot more up to date and accurate than Pollster's, and it currently has McCain with 274 electoral votes if the election were held today. Obama should be ahead by at least 50 electoral votes right now. Coming soon: a lackluster VP selection (Biden or Kaine); a convention in which 45% of the delegates are going to vote for another candidate (Hillary); and an onslaught of Rev. Wright, Tony Rezko, "no experience", and "do you really know Barack Hussein Obama??" ads nationwide. Trust me, Obama's in trouble.

If the polls are accurate, people are once again falling for the Republican fear fueling and lies in attack ads.

Tom Ridge was on CNN today. He could not site any initiatives that McCain supported in the past for energy independence. He was obviously frustrated and talking in circles. McCain has voted against energy initiatives.

How do the polls account for Obama's extremely strong support by African-Americans and people without landlines?

It seems polling in states with high populations of African-Americans in selected parts of the states would need to be considered. Since the sample size is very small, it seems like an accurate representation would be difficult.

I am also curious about how they choose the individuals they call. In some states, people do not register with a party affiliation.

What are McCain's accomplishments during 26 years in Congress?

Hey Stan2008:
Just becasue people don't agrree with you does that mean they are stupid and falling for Rep ads??
That's a typical Obama like arrogance. That's why he is falling behind.
You expect everybody to be dumbf--k and support Obama like you.

An excellent article the dispels many McCain myths.

McCain The Candidate We Still Don’t Know

By FRANK RICH August 17, 2008

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/opinion/17rich.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

So why isn’t Obama romping? The obvious answer — and both the excessively genteel Obama campaign and a too-compliant press bear responsibility for it — is that the public doesn’t know who on earth John McCain is.

What is widely known is the skin-deep, out-of-date McCain image. As this fairy tale has it, the hero who survived the Hanoi Hilton has stood up as rebelliously in Washington as he did to his Vietnamese captors. He strenuously opposed the execution of the Iraq war; he slammed the president’s response to Katrina; he fought the “agents of intolerance” of the religious right; he crusaded against the G.O.P. House leader Tom DeLay, the criminal lobbyist Jack Abramoff and their coterie of influence-peddlers

With the exception of McCain’s imprisonment in Vietnam, every aspect of this profile in courage is inaccurate or defunct.

Yes, the states are trending with the national... a very very close race. Obama/Barr/Nader are trending down and McCain is moving up.

This particular poll is a good one for which to relish the moment... remembering how the Obamanation was so "in your face" in June to those who put forward a cautionary warning about being too optimistic.

"Obama's favorable rating has sunk to 48% from 59% since the last Times/Bloomberg poll in June. At the same time, his negative rating has risen to 35% from 27%." (Now he is even with McCain.)

@Stan2008:

I personally believe that the landline issue is really a non-issue.I did some research on the subject, see what you think.

NObama is falling behind. They know it from their internal polls.
Proof: They are bending over backwards to accommodate at the convention both Hillary and Bill. They need them now!! Also note the Flip-Flop on delegates from MI & FL. Same reason!

Why does Barack Obama's leftest liberals continue to use ad hominem attacks against McCain? It worked against Clinton because the press aided and abetted Obama. They had enough garbage to spoon feed the leftest meat thirsty piranhas. Some say it was payback for Hilary's treatment of them while she was in the white house. Maybe but one would think that it won't work to that degree with McCain.

Nothing but the calm before the Obama storm.

/goes back to watching the Olympics like most of America

There's a few things everyone knows in Washington...one of those is don't get in the Clinton's and an election. Hillary can still make a move at the convention, demand a floor vote and fight for the nomination...she can poitn to Obama faultering and say "See I told ya so"....don't count Hillary out just yet. Her and Bill are very very good politicans.

There's a few things everyone knows in Washington...one of those is don't get in the Clinton's and an election. Hillary can still make a move at the convention, demand a floor vote and fight for the nomination...she can poitn to Obama faultering and say "See I told ya so"....don't count Hillary out just yet. Her and Bill are very very good politicans

it is very difficult for a normal candidate to answer constant lies that are so outrageous they shouldn't even be addressed in a normal civilized world.

that's what differentiated clinton/92 from all the other dems who have run in the last 30 years. that campaign stood up to and beat down all the GOP lies and smears and they also stayed on the offensive...

it seems to me obama is falling into the "doesn't fight back/doesn't frame the debate/doesn't take the offensive" category like all the rest of the dems who have lost.

too bad for all of us.

What???? Clinton won in 95 for one reason and only one reason, Ross Perot! Oh those evil republicans and their lies.....maybe one day they can see the light and be pure and virtuous like the Dems....until then, I guess they will continue to be the horrid monsters they are.

McCain fans are trying to spin so hard, fact is even now McCain failed to overtake Obama, even after his best month against Obama he's still losing. McCain has a big problem at this point, First the dem convention, then the fact that McCain has to go onto Public financing gives Obama the inside track

I see the Obamanation is in talking point attack McCain mode in response to this (and other) polls where Obama and McCain are essentially tied.

Here are a couple of "nitpicky" facts:

1. Senator McCain's Indian Affairs Committee in 2005 was instrumental in the Abramoff investigation -- because Indian tribes were defrauded of $82 million that Abramoff and his public relations associate, Mike Scanlon, charged to six tribes over a three-year period. At the same time, the Justice Department was utilizing a secret grand jury investigation into Abramoff et al.

2. Senator McCain (and Hillary) voted AGAINST the Bush/Cheney energy bill/policy and Obama voted for it. Now Obama rephrases such as Obama voted for alternative energy and McCain voted against alternative energy. Actually, McCain voted against Big Oil goodies as well as Big Agri goodies (a large amount went to Obama's home state of Illinois.) Obama's vote was bought.

3. Frank Rich has definitely joined the Obama Nation as also evidenced by this gem "...a new international crisis that allows McCain to again flex his Manchurian Candidate military cred." (OK, so to which version is Rich referring... the book, the first movie or the remake?) Bottom line is that calling McCain a "Manchurian Candidate" is the same as calling McCain a brain-washed "traitor." Lowest of the low. But the Obamanation is freely using this line and in the process denigrating ALL U.S. prisoners of war.

@axt113

You aren't suggesting Obama is going to buy this election are you? I thought only evil republicans do that type of thing? Yes, Obama flip flop $4,126 (public financing) was a good one...he can spend spend spend....hey that's the same thing he will do if he is elected, spend spend spend with everyoen elses money!

FYI... The RNC can spend its money for their candidate McCain, and they are doing very nicely (and much better than the DNC).

It is also humorous that so many think that Obama can buy an election. How does that correlate to "new" politics?

There are far more right leaning comments here than '06. Interesting. They certify their desperation by clinging to the belief Bill Clinton won only via Perot. Let's see, a 5.5 point margin of victory. Perot received roughly 19%. That means, minus Perot, the 19% who favored a rogue 3rd party candidate would have to default to the out of touch incumbent with his 40% approval rating, by a margin of nearly 2/1 (12.5 to 6.5).

LOL. What planet is that?

Also, best of luck in this political climate. I suppose you actually believe Obama ever led by 12 points. What country is that? That's the only way to turn these recent polls into good news, by pretending McCain is on a roll.

His upside is severely limited by Bush 43's ineptitude over the past 8 years and how that sticks to the Republican brand. McCain needs every break and implosion by Obama to win a squeaker.

Now Indiana has gone pink on the map...just more proof of a trend in McCains direction. Dark blue's are going light blue, yellow's are going pink.......good news for McCain....now McCain needs to hope Obama picks someone like Biden as VP, but I doubt Obama is that foolish.

We will know a lot more about Obama by his VP choice. We do know that he can keep a secret. Biden today denied it was him but some people are saying that he hasn't told the person yet! I guess he likes surprises. If he picks Kaine the next two months will be rough. Kaine is Kristol's favorite which should give you an idea how bad it would be. Bill is still giving Barack the stiff arm. Democrats (that is, real ones) can still hope for Clinton but it is like hoping for rain in the desert. Not very likely! Barack is prideful. How wise he is, is at this point an open question.

What we do know is that McCain is an idiot. Lieberman or Ridge would cause an open rebellion in the GOP. I can only hope that he does it. Pride and stupidity is in both parties so like in war, victory goes to the one that makes the fewest mistakes.

"Stillow:
What???? Clinton won in 95 for one reason and only one reason, Ross Perot!"

lol, polling at the time showed that perot pulled evenly from both Bush the old and Clinton.

The Democrats are a bitterly divided party. It may not show in the polling but anyone who has had a conversation with a Clinton supporter knows it to be true. The disdain the Obama people seem to have for Mrs. Clinton is not helpful. Obama need to grow up, act like an adult and pick the person who can best unite the party and deliver the White House to the Democrats. The names that have been floated so far are not only lackluster but certain to anger those who passionately supported Hillary Clinton. Passing on Mrs. Clinton will reveal a character flaw in Obama that will be very worrisome if he is elected. The Obama campaign loves the Kennedy comparisons. Well, now is the time to do something Kennedyesque: Make the smart choice, not the prideful one.

My God, people are delusional. The only reason these polls show direction for McCain is because of the cross-tabs. The thing to pay attention to is the trend in NEW VOTER REGISTRATIONS.

Nevada, Iowa, and New Mexico will all be going in the Barack Obama column along with New Hampshire and all the states that Kerry won.

Even Kerry was disappointed in how all those new registered voters did not show up in large enough numbers to make the difference. Good strategy but does not seem to work out to clinch victories for Dems. Ask George McGovern.

All morning someone was telling me that McCain was in a tie with Obama.

its a funny thing everytime I look at it Obama is leading.

there is a trend but not really to McCain, a softening of Obama's. There appears to be very little enthusiasm for McCain - every poll I look at!

You might expect that with Obama being on vacation and the Georgian crisis, a temporary shift in the polls.

@Stillow, player on this poll and all the other ones publish today Obama is still wins the general.

I heard on one of the political shows that evangelicals make up more than the youth and AA vote combined. Evangelicals will turn out this election to wipe out Obamas new registration numbers with youth and AA voters...maybe. I'm just hoping. With OH changing the rules to allow people to vote without registration and FL allowing felons to vote, combined with Obamas money to drive to supporters houses to take them to the polls might work. We'll see. But the current polls give anti-Obama supporters hope.

My fellow Obama supporters should relax. The most comparable campaign is that of 1980 with incumbent president with bad economy and foreign policy problems (I know, I was just out of school then and although a Carter voter I certainly understand why he was voted out.) Reagan won by 10 points in the end but for most of the campaign polling was tied or with small leads. Ronald Reagan had been around for a long time and was a more known quantity than Obama(in some respects that was his problem, but I digress) running against an unpopular incumbent, but he did not close the deal until after the debate. John McCain is not the unpopular incumbent, he is better known than Obama and, no matter how undeserved, has a generally positive reputation among the electorate. Running against him is not the same as running against the unpopular incumbent. Nevertheless, after all that he has thrown at the lesser known Obama, RealClearPolitics still shows Obama with a 3 point lead. That is more than George Bush's margin of victory in 2004 and translates to a margin of over 3.5 million votes. McCain has gained no ground himself, but rather Obama has lost some ground to undecided. Unlike those of us who post here, most people are putting their time to better use living their lives and are not analyzing Obama's policy positions, or his relative celebrity. They do, however, know that they want change. As with Reagan in 1980, Clinton in 1992 (he was trailing both Bush and Ross Perot before the convention for goodness sake), people simply need to be convinced by Obama's VP choice, his convention and the debates that he is up to the job. I believe he is fully capaable of doing that. There is no evidence that people want to elect McCain evem though they feel positive about him. If you believe that Obama is up to the job, then you should believe that he will win. The historical evidence is that when people want change and the change candidate, no matter how younger or less experienced than the other candidate, demonstrates that he can do the job, then he wins, be it JFK, Ronald Reagan(w/o the younger part), or Bill Clinton. To my fellow Obama supporters, have some confidence in the candidate and the electorate.

This is a little song I wrote. I want to sing it note for note.
Don't worry Be happy Doo-doo-doo doo-doo doody-doody-doody dooo...