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POLL: Times/Bloomberg National Primary


A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg national survey (Times story, results; Bloomberg story; conducted 1/18 through 1/22) finds:

  • 532 Likely Democratic Primary Voters (± 4%)

    42 Clinton
    33 Obama
    11 Edwards
    1 Kucinich
    1 Other
    12 Undecided
  • 337 Likely Republican Primary Voters (± 5%)

    22 McCain
    18 Huckabee
    17 Romney
    12 Giuliani
    10 Thompson
    6 Paul
    1 Hunter
    1 Other
    13 Undecided

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

Still waiting for more polls sans Thompson.

Where his support goes will determine this race. If either Romney or Huckabee can pick up the clear majority, then they will be the new front runners. On the other hand, if it is split three-way with Giuliani, McCain will keep a small lead.

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Adam:

On the Obama v. Clinton numbers, how close must he be on 2/5 to have a realistic chance? I'd say he needs to close within 5 points instead of the 8 or 9 he's at now....

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Dave:

Adam -- I disagree. Clinton has never really been able to get above 50%, wheras Obama + Edwards usually beats her (with the exception of Nevada). In the increasingly likely event of a brokered convention, I'd expect "not Hillary" to have more delegates than Hillary. Now whether Obama or Edwards would get to be the Non-Hillary...

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Adam:

Dave -- I hope you're right. I've never voted Republican in my life, but it makes me just sick to my stomach to watch her campaign tactics (more on that point at http://www.newsweek.com/id/101173). If it's Clinton v. McCain, I'll reluctantly be choosing the latter.

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Ben:

Dave,
Obama + Edwards probably took 50%+ of the popular vote in Nevada, too, but Edwards fell short of viability in too many precincts. It's hard to gauge in a caucus.

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RS:

I am not sure the Edwards vote (if he drops out) will go entirely to Obama. Apart from the race issue, there are also folks who may think an African-American can't win - or worse, may win but won't be able to achieve much in DC (for whatever reasons). Such folks may not like Senator Clinton, so go for Edwards; but if Edwards drops out, they may go to Senator Clinton...

A recent AP article says even Feb 5 may not make or break a candidacy, because the Democratic way splits delegates in some proportion. How crucial will Governor Rendell's endorsement of Senator Clinton be, come April 22 in PA?

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Regardless of where Obama is nationally, he's going to have to win California on 2/5 to have any hope of winning. Unlike Giuliani, who is tanking in New York, Hillary's way up there and pretty far up in neighboring New Jersey. Illinois would be a nice sized prize for Obama, but he'll need at least one big prize to stay viable.

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