Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Times/KTLA Campaign/Same-Sex Marriage


Los Angeles Times/KTLA
Survey of 834 adults and 705 registered voters in California, interviews conducted May 20-21, 2008 (Same-sex marriage article, results; presidential campaign article, results)

California

Among Registered Voters:
Obama 47, McCain 40
Clinton 43, McCain 40

Among All Adults:
As you may know, last week the California Supreme Court ruled that the California Constitution requires that same-sex couples be given the same right to marry that opposite-sex couples have. Based on what you know, do you approve or disapprove of the California Supreme Court's decision last week to allow same-sex marriage in California?

41% Approve
52% Disapprove

Among Registered Voters:
As you may also know, A proposed amendment to the state's Constitution that may appear on the November ballot would reverse the court's decision and reinstate a ban on same-sex marriage. The amendment would state that marriage is only between a man and a woman. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against the amendment?

54% For
35% Against

 

Comments
Snowspinner:

The closeness of Clinton and McCain in California is a bit of an outlier, but Obama outperforming Clinton in California has been fairly consistent over a few polls.

Which makes the "electoral math" argument on the part of both candidates much dicier - yes, Clinton is right that losing Michigan or not taking Ohio would make Obama's campaign harder. On the other hand, even with strength in Ohio and Florida, losing California would be apocalyptic for Clinton.

If anything, what is shown here is how silly an argument "electability" is in making a primary decision. This is also visible in the national survey a few polls up - Clinton does better than Obama against McCain, despite having lower approval ratings and higher disapproval ratings. That doesn't jibe.

____________________

carl29:

This poll vendicates me. I have always argued with all who say that Sen. Clinton and Sen. Clinton only can get the Hispanic vote were wrong. Well, I have always said that Hispanics were voting for Sen. Clinton over Obama out of familiarity, the power of her clinton brand. That in no way this meant that Obama will lose the Hispanic vote. Once Obama became the Democratic nominee, hispanics will rally behind him. I know my people like the palm of my hand. We are very into brands; God knows that we love brands. And there is no brand more powerful that the democratic brand among hispanics. So, republicans are dreaming if they think that they could win the hispanic vote in the near future.

Actually, more hispanics will cross over to vote for McCain if Hillary is the nominee than if Obama is the nominee. How is it? Well, HISPANIC INDEPENDENTS voted for Obama more than Clinton in the primary. I bet that those extra 4% or 5% who go to McCain if Clinton is on the ballot come from independent Hispanics, mostly highly educated men, who are not willing to vote for Hillary.

____________________

eternaltriangle:

The polls of California do not "vendicate" you - they don't VINDICATE you either.

Look at SurveyUSA's California poll - Obama trails McCain among Hispanics in every single vice-presidential matchup. In one case (McCain-Huckabee vs. Obama-Hagel) McCain takes Hispanics 57-31. Obama wins California by winning among white asian and black voters.

I should add that the poll has Asian voters as 15% of the sample, although only 8% of the California electorate was Asian/other in 2004. If you reduce the asian share of the electorate to 8%, Obama's lead goes from 8% to under 5.5%.

Yes we can... lose California?


____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR