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POLL: U of Cincinnati Ohio


University of Cincinnati

Ohio 2/28 - 3/2
Clinton 51, Obama 42... McCain 53, Huckabee 28, Paul 7

 

Comments

Yippee! Looks like there's a poll for everyone today!

Though I do keep forgetting - which is more committal, "likely" voters or "probable" voters? It's a lot like "partly sunny" being less cheerful than "partly cloudy", right?

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illinoisindie:

where are the crosstabs???

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Gregg:

The polls have been underpolling Obama's support the last few weeks. Look at Wisconsin.


Here are my predictions:


Texas - Obama 60% Clinton 40%

Ohio - Obama 52% Clinton 48%

Vermont - Obama 65% Clinton 35%

RI - Obama 51% Clinton 49%

Why the clean sweep? Momentum and enthusiasm. Ohio - as much as people don't want to admit it - is right in Obama's momentum wheelhouse. Just look at Wisconsin a few weeks ago. Clinton had a lead there and got absolutely crushed by almost 20 points. Why? Well it was pretty darn cold there on voting day. The people that vote when it is crazy cold outside are very motivated voters. Now, who has the enthusiasm aspect going for them this campaign - that is right, Obama does, and that is why he won by a large margin in Wisconsin. Therefore, I expect the same pattern to hold throughout many of the contests tomorrow.

We'll see how accurate I am compared with the pollsters!

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Pete:

They gave 6% to Edwards; do they really think that 6% of the people tomorrow will vote for a candidate who is not even running? Very curious poll.

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Nav:

I believe that the younger voter is not properly picked up in these polls. Since this group favors Obama his numbers should be higher. My break down :

Texas - Obama wins by small margin.
Ohio - Clinton wins by small margin.
Vermont - Obama easy win.
RI - Clinton easy win.

A 2 state split. Obama will increase his lead slightly in the count but no knock out punch. I support Obama. Clinton will keep going on since she is a fighter. She will argue since she won Ohio which is a mini America in population break out she is best to lead the party. She will also fight for the FL and MI people. Hillary puts herself first then the party !!!

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Deb:

Ohio has massive unemployment. The younger voter there is not the same as in other parts of the country. Also, the southern portion of Ohio is mountainous and very poverty stricken. That is Edwards' country, so he could get a significant write-in vote.

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JON:

if she wins OH+TX, then goes along to win PA (somewhat likely) in April, obama will have a lot of explaining to do. after all, if that scenario plays out, she would've won 7 of the 8 largest states (by electoral votes) : California (55), Texas (34), New York (31), Florida (27), Illinois (21) (only obama win in this list, his home-state), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17).

YOU OBAMBABOTS ARE PATHETIC

Even if you take FL and MI out of the picture, that's 5 out of 6. Then she can make a good argument that Obama lacks big (and swing) state appeal, particularly regarding OH/PA/FL.

Also, there were more wrong polling than just NH. Take Cali. Of the 4 final polls that RCP used for their average, Obama was ahead in 3 of them, with Zogby putting it at Obama+13. Outcome? Clinton+9.

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I think that Ohio will be 52/48 Obama by the time we're done.

The Columbus poll of registered Dems gave us a unique datapoint that we can compare to the latest Rasmussen which had 19% non-Democrats. We know that Wisconsin came out 37% non-Dem, and that feels like my best guess as to what it will really be. Extrapolate out from that, and you get something like 52/48 (leaving aside other candidates and so on).

I think that's as reasonable as we can say at this point. I don't know why the LV/PV pools are all estimating as few non-Dems as they are - it seems like that's been the largest source of error so far.

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JON:

Um, it goes without saying that if your candidate wins the next 3 big states then she will have won a lot of big states. For that matter, if I make myself a cup of tea I will have a cup of tea.

If, on the other hand, I do not make myself a cup of tea, I will not have a cup of tea. While we could debate whether a cup of tea is, in fact, a cup of tea, it wouldn't change the reality that I could make a cuppa, drink it, and have a rather productive afternoon while the debate about nothing rages on.

The story is that Clinton has a 100 delegate deficit and needs to have a big win to make any headway. If it happens, you may gloat. Be my guest. Until then, the supposition is rather silly.

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JON:

Um, it goes without saying that if your candidate wins the next 3 big states then she will have won a lot of big states. For that matter, if I make myself a cup of tea I will have a cup of tea.

If, on the other hand, I do not make myself a cup of tea, I will not have a cup of tea. While we could debate whether a cup of tea is, in fact, a cup of tea, it wouldn't change the reality that I could make a cuppa, drink it, and have a rather productive afternoon while the debate about nothing rages on.

The story is that Clinton has a 100 delegate deficit and needs to have a big win to make any headway. If it happens, you may gloat. Be my guest. Until then, the supposition is rather silly.

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Dewrdeye:

Hillary better hope Obama has a thing for under-aged girls and is caught on Dateline's "To Catch a Predator" show today.

Otherwise, s.b, Cokie, ciccina, Kabindra, rowjimmty, John, JON, Andrew, tony, Gabe, etc, etc. - pack Hillary's bags and start her Lexus, cause it's all over after Ohio and Texas!

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Cookie Roberts:

Can we have a brokered convention?

YES

WE

CAN!

Hillary by 11 in Ohio, 1 in Texas, 12 in RI!

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Trevor:

JON,

You do not know what you are talking about. Take a look at the polls since Super Tuesday and the final outcome. SEE A PATTERN?

That's right, dramatic under-polling for the winner, and still reigning nomineee........c'mon, you know what's comin'......Baraaaaaaack OOOOOOOBBBAAAAAAMMMMAAAA......OBAMA !!

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tony:

wow gregg. that's quite an "enthusiastic" prediction. survey usa has actually been quite good in this season. very great predicting. i would not depart so much from the data as you have.

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Anonymous:

All these polls aren't considering the early voting. In states that have early voting Hillary has done considerably better.

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Anonymous:

What if Mi & FL are allowed to have a revote in winner take all primaries say on May 6th. How would that change the race?

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Killer Croc:

What if Mi & FL are allowed to have a revote in winner take all primaries say on May 6th. How would that change the race?

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KS:

Clinton taking Ohio is a foregone conclusion. I don't need to read a poll to know this.

More interesting is the latest PPP poll for Texas. Here is it -

"The final Public Policy Polling survey in Texas shows Sen. Hillary Clinton taking a six point lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 50% to 44%.

Key finding: "The Hispanic vote saved Hillary Clinton in California, and now it looks like it might do the same in Texas. She is getting almost as much of the Hispanic vote as Obama is of the black vote and that's propelled her to the lead in the state."

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Bree:

HEEEEY KS!

If you want KS, I will wager $1000 that Obama wins Texas. Up for it?

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Prasad:

Hi,
I am worried about national election look like last year CT senate race, Lamont winning primary over Leiberman, on anti war vote and then loosing badly in general election as Republicans and Independents elect Lieberman back to senate... McCain winning over Obama easily, even winning some blue states... Scary to me as I look at Obama... For record I am a Democrat always voted for democrats...

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Henry :

> will wager $1000 that Obama wins Texas. Up for it?

I do not think KS is interested in taking away your welfare check, "Bree."

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Henry :

> will wager $1000 that Obama wins Texas. Up for it?

I do not think KS is interested in taking away your welfare check, "Bree."

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