UW-Madison Department of Political Science/
Under the direction of political scientists Ken Goldstein and Charles Franklin
Obama 50, McCain 37
Hello "bounce"! Every poll out in the last week shows a solid bounce for Obama in the battleground states. This is something that most of us primary season Obama supporters expected. I'm glad that the CW will finally change away from "Obama is a weak candidate" to "Obama is leading in all the battlegrounds."
The media desperately wants this to be a "close" "nailbiter" election so they will try to highlight the areas where Barack performs poorly, but they can't deny the simple fact that, at this point, he appears significantly stronger than McCain in the battlegrounds :)
Posted on June 12, 2008 10:22 AM
I agree, and I'm eager to see what Florida looks like. Although I still think it will show a McCain lead.
That said, for what WSJ/NBC's recent poll is worth, it did show a huge lead for Obama among Hispanics, which might impact the Florida numbers.
Posted on June 12, 2008 1:07 PM
Dear Tzal: Don't hold your breath about hispanics in Florida. These hispanics are Cubans and Nicaraguans, old people, and man, you have never seen people more republican than these. Obama's support among hispanics is going to be crucial in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado, don't worry about California for this baby is not going anywhere.
If any democrat is going to get support from Hispanics is going to get it from new register voters, younger Cubans.
Posted on June 12, 2008 3:15 PM
The Wisconsin survey probably oversampled Democrats. See my analysis on my Party ID/Sample Weighting website:
Posted on June 12, 2008 11:59 PM
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