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POLL: SurveyUSA, InsiderAdvantage, Capital Survey Research Center


SurveyUSA

New Polls in California, Massachusetts, Alabama, Missouri, Illinois, and Oklahoma

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Insider Advantage

New Polls in Georgia and Alabama

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Capital Survey Research Center

New Poll in Alabama

Full data available on our chart pages.

 

Comments
Brian:

From what I've seen, Survey USA seems to consistantly show more support for Hillary and less for Obama than do other polls. I wonder if they determine likely voters differently than do other polls.

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Brian:

Okay, maybe that trend isn't as consistant as I thought. I happened to be paying particular attention to MA, MO, and CA, in which that pattern did emerge.

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skeptic:

Those Insider Advantage polls are Sunday night only. If there's anything more useless than a Sunday only poll it's a Super Bowl Sunday night only poll!

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Maryann:

This site uses the pollster.com state averages to come up with an estimate of how the delegates will be divided. Pretty interesting: http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com

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Jeffrey:

Maryanne:

That site you reference has Clinton getting twice as many delegates out of Illinois as Obama. Somethings wrong.

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s.b.:

Skeptic, I'm not sure where you get your info from, but Sunday night is the money night for polling and is by far the best night. Super bowl ???? No firms were polling during the game.

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Maryann:

Looks like they caught the error now and fixed the estimates. Looks like things will be very close after Tuesday night.

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strricha12:

I am so glad that Hill is up. The MSM and the Obama gang tie up Bill and then bring out Oprah, Maria, Carolyn, Ted Kennedy, John Kerry et al., to attack Hill. Then the right wing nuts join them in carving up Hillary. Tuesday, we the people, will vote for Hill. Then Obama can whine all he wants.

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KS:

This is the set of poll number I'm waiting for. The media say that Hillary and Obama are in dead heat. That is true. But notice that when you add up the Hillary and Obama numbers, they add up to around 80%. In other words, roughly 20% stays undecided. Under this situation, the race will be decided by the undecided voters. Look at the latest SurveyUSA poll numbers. The undecided numbers are much smaller. That means the undecided voters have finally made up their mind, breaking for Hillary at the eve of the election day. This is not surprising. The undecided can hold up their decision only for so long. When push comes to shove, these voters, who have been struggling with their decision, will go for the safer, less risky choice - Hillary. Based on the poll numbers, Hillary will sweep most of the states except a few Obama strong holds.

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Alan Abramowitz:

KS is reading a whole lot into one potentially crappy poll.

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A.A.:

KS needs to take his/her medication. This is reading way to much significance into one poll that is way out of line with every other recent poll in California. And I believe that SUSA typically gets a much lower undecided percentage for reasons that probably reflect peculiarities of their methodology.

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KS:

No need to get personal. This is America. Everyone can express their opinion. Stick to the facts and issues. Yes. My opinion is that Hillary will sweep SuperTuesday tomorrow - just watch!

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Amnon:

I think the Missouri Primary will be most telling. This is one the handful of states that will be up for grabs in November (along with Florida, Ohio, NH, Iowa and Nevada) The winner of that primary will have a better cance of winning the White House. These daily McCain vs. Obama or Clinton polls are pretty useless

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Amnon:

BTW Survey USA has been 3rd most accurate polling service in the first 7 or so contests (excluding polls in single states) Behind Strategic Vision and Zogby

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Adam:

Amnon -- That might be true, but what do you make of the obvious divergence between the results of Zogby and SUSA now? Zogby has Obama up 6 in CA.

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jr1886:

Here's a proposition: Let's pit Zogby against survey USA and see who wins on Wednesday so in next primaries we will know what poll to ignore.

As Brian noted above, Survey USA always underestimated Obama's support and hike Clinton's numbers. By tomorrow night, we'll have the verdict.

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SUSA explained this saying their numbers reflect low turnout for young voters. Reading one of their full reports, they say young turnout will determine how accurate the polls are.

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John Zogby:

And even if I find Zogby's protestation of impartiality convincing, that doesn't necessarily clear him of bad faith. RealClearPolitics noted:

6) Zogby
Failed to Project Winner: 27.3% | Average Error = 3.6

As we all know, Zogby had been on record for months saying that Kerry was going to win this race. Despite his final tracking poll that put Bush ahead by one point nationally, Zogby's polling at the state level reflected his belief that Kerry was going to be the beneficiary of huge turnout - especially among the youth vote. The result is that Zogby missed three of the eleven states he polled in (FL, IA, and NM), had a relatively high error rate across the board (3.8%), and his numbers generally skewed in favor of John Kerry.

Adding insult to injury, Zogby's bizarre election day antics calling for "surprises" in Colorado and Virginia and a decisive 311 electoral vote victory for Kerry suggest he was relying on (not to mention taken in by) the badly skewed early exit poll data.

Let's be honest: Zogby's conduct this year bordered on outrageous. No other independent pollster was out making public predictions of a John Kerry or George W. Bush victory months before hand. And no other pollster decided to wait until 5:30pm Eastern time on election day to post their final numbers.

Yesterday however, RealClearPolitics quotes from Zogby's apology and seems to have softened its stand a little.

So the question is, what purpose is served (other than perhaps self aggrandizement) by polling on election day and releasing "final" numbers at 5:30pm Eastern when the polls in many states on the East Coast start closing shortly thereafter? I'm not sure Zogby has fully explained that one.

NOTE:I found RealClearPolitics ranking of the battleground pollsters rather interesting. Numbers 2 and 3 were Rasmussen and Survey USA. Survey USA as RCP notes:

Some people have questioned methodology and reliability of SurveyUSA's polls.

(Survey USA had a poll in the early fall showing Maryland tied.) Indeed, The Washington Post reported in "In Such a Tight Race, Pollster Sees a Profit" that both firms are criticized for their automatic polling. Rasmussen is criticized because he just polls for profit. *Gasp* (Why that makes him less reliable than someone polling for a political party is not explained by the article.) And Zogby, who was a lot less reliable than Rasmussen and Survey USA this year got to host his own Live Online chat session at the Washington Post right before the election. Go figure.

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