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POLL: USA Today/Gallup '08 Primary


A new USA Today/Gallup national survey (USA Today story, Dem results, Rep results; Gallup analysis) of adults (conducted 12/14 through 12/16) finds:

  • Among 399 Republicans and those who lean Republican, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee (27% to 16%) in a national primary; Sen. John McCain, former Sen. Fred Thompson, and former Gov. Mitt Romney both trail at 14%.
  • Among 513 Democrats and those who lean Democratic, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (45% to 27%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trials at 15%.
  • All other candidates receive less than five percent each. The margin of sampling error is 5% for Republicans and Republican leaners and for Democrats and Democratic leaners.

Updates with links.

 

Comments

I've heard repeatedly that national polls at this time are useless, "lagging indicators", and they don't matter as much as the early contested states, yet:

1. Huckabee went up in Iowa, which brought him up in south carolina and nationally. So the natl polls were consistent. Now this poll is prob. showing the beginning backlash from 10 days of his bad coverage.

2. Hillary has maintained leads in Florida, California, and nationwide; even while the media was crushing her.

How could the national polls surge for Huck and sag on Rudy; but they still be meaningless?

The truth is Hillary is a solid frontrunner who so far has not dipped below +15 in the national polls for months. Furthermore

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/state-polls.html(state polls)

shows were there a national primary today she'd win in a landslide in delegates.

The biggest obstacle to Hillary is the press being bored and antagonistic against her.

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