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POLL: Zogby 50 State-Map


Zogby Interactive (Internet Panel)
6/11-30/08
Likely Voters Nationwide

Electoral Votes
Obama 273, McCain 160, Too Close to Call 105

 

Comments
FleetAdmiralJ:

Obama up 9 in North Carolina? Up 1 in South Carolina? 3 in Arizona? Only down 5 in Oklahoma? Oh my, Zogby Interactive...

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junkie82:

Many states in the Zogby Interative survey have seemingly too high percentages of Bob Barr supporters, causing McCain to underpeform among self-identified conservatives compared to other public surveys. One can expect this large third-party preference in an online survey of self-selected respondents in which more activist types are likely to volunteer to participate. That is why, for example, Zogby Interatctive surveys in 2007 always showed Hillary faring worse than her Democratic rivals in general election matchups. Zogby polls also seem to have a history of overestimating third party preference (see Golisano for NY Governor.)

In any case, the "too close to call" statuses of Montana, North Dakota and Indiana are still interesting as they augment other public polling (and apparently the Obama campaign's internal polling) indicating these states are uncharacteristically competitive.

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Allen:

It would not surprise me if a significant number of voters said "Bob Barr" all the way up to November 4, when they cast their votes for McCain. The same may be true for voters who express a preference for Ralph Nader or another third party candidate.

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brambster:

Pure garbage. Clearly these "interactive" polls are under counting McCain's strength with older voters and possibly more rural voters as well, and anything Internet surely skews to the Democrat's advantage regardless. No sense in even pointing out the differences with others since the margin of error is so high.

I suspect Barr's support is so high in these polls due to similar reasons. Counter-culture sensations like Ron Paul had tremendous Internet support that never turned into real votes in the primaries.

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jsh1120:

Zogby's "interactive" internet polls are nothing but "straw polls" dressed up in respectable clothes. The huge sample sizes cited in Zogby's results no more compensate for the sampling error than the infamous Literary Digest poll predicting a Landon landslide in 1936.

Most tellingly, though Zogby claims "rigorous weighting" to compensate for sample bias, the firm provides no detailed evidence to back up its claims.

Considering Zogby's checkered history of slanting poll results to meet the agenda of his clients, any poll from the firm deserves to be viewed carefully. In the case of the "internet" polls, they are nothing but marketing exercises for the firm and deserve to be ignored.

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sherman:

I've never put any stock in Zogby's polls. They don't have a very good track record and for whatever reason they seem to over-estimate support for Democrats.

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1magine:

Most states, except the South/ South West appear to be in line with other polls. The key word there is appears. If they are close it is purely coincidental. At least with Rasmussen, I know there is extra weighting to the Rep. side, with Zogby, I beleive they are mostly unreliable.

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Rasmus:

1magine: I think Rasmussen is pretty good, sometimes overestimating Republican support, but not always.
Keep apart Zogby and Zogby Interactive.
Zogby is mediocre, but not THAT bad. They had some really poor results (most famous: CA), but some good also (PA) in the primaries. and these primaries were harder to predict then most General Elections.

But another thing: I did not check this with recent polls, but in my opinion in most STATE polls Barr polls higher then Nader. On the national polling level Nader apparently leads by 1.5 points (against Barr). Any explanation?

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desirous:

"Rigorous weighting" is bull****. Internet usage is a key demographic factor in itself. Ceteris paribus, whether one uses the Internet can reflect upon his/her attitude towards change, cultural habits, etc.

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Paul:

Before those of you throw out Zogby's 50 state poll, let's compare his 50 state poll with a map based on my objective analysis of multiple polls. Every single Obama state in the Zogby poll is seen as favoring Obama based on multiple polling. That number (273) already exceeds the required 270 without factoring in a single toss up state. Zogby's toss up states split both ways based on multiple polling (Arizona - McCain, Nevada - McCain, Montana - McCain, North Dakota - McCain, Missouri - McCain, Arkansas - McCain, Indiana - McCain, Ohio - Obama, Virginia - Obama, North Carolina - Obama, South Carolina - McCain. Starting with the Zogby map, you have to take away an Obama state worth 5 or more electoral votes, and award every toss up state to McCain for McCain to win.

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brambster:

@Paul

Zogby's map doesn't agree with their actual polling results. You will find Red states with 3 and 4 point margins (TX and FL), and then find tossup states with 5 or even 9 point margins (OH, NC and VA). They even assumed several states as tossup based on published opinion only.

It's clear that even their own map trumps their numbers.

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jsh1120:

I can only hope that the reaction to Zogby's "50 state interactive" poll is enough to embarrass him into dropping it. I don't have much hope for that, however.

The fact that some of the results conform to other poll results and conventional wisdom is no rationale for according them any legitimacy. If they agree with other polls, they add no new information.

On the other hand, to the extent that the results depart from those of other sources, they have to be discounted by a factor that cannot be estimated statistically due to the volunteer character of the sample.

The Literary Digest died as a result of predicting Landon's victory over FDR in 1936. Here's hoping the same fate befalls Zogby's "interactive poll" marketing effort.

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Uri:

Something seems strange about Obama's support in the midwest.
How can his numbers in IL be only slightly better than MI? The former is home state, the latter is still a battleground state.

Also, the Barr numbers seem crazy while Nader seems too low compared to recent polls.

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McCain's campaign really hurt itself this week due to some horrible errors. First, McCain said that Social Security was a mistake. This will be used by the Democrats against McCain once September comes around. Expect McCain to lose countless support amongst the elderly who collect Sociual Security. I am a recently retired school teacher who collects a check each month. Second, McCain's top economic advisor said that the people of this great country are "whiners" and that the economic woes this country is facing is really a "men tal recession." Boy, is this ammunition for the Democrats to use against McCain. McCain has also flipped-flopped on most issues during this campaign and is trying to say the Obama is the flip-flopper.

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McCain's campaign really hurt itself this week due to some horrible errors. First, McCain said that Social Security was a mistake. This will be used by the Democrats against McCain once September comes around. Expect McCain to lose countless support amongst the elderly who collect Sociual Security. I am a recently retired school teacher who collects a check each month. Second, McCain's top economic advisor said that the people of this great country are "whiners" and that the economic woes this country is facing is really a "men tal recession." Boy, is this ammunition for the Democrats to use against McCain. McCain has also flipped-flopped on most issues during this campaign and is trying to say the Obama is the flip-flopper.

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