Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

POLL: Zogby IN, NC (5/4-5; Final)


Zogby

Indiana
Obama 45, Clinton 43

North Carolina
Obama 51, Clinton 37

 

Comments
Andrew_in_California:

I'm very curious to see if this Gas Tax Holiday news cycle will reverse the latest Rev. Wright Episode. Let's see if Zogby goes beyond its CA blunder or not.

____________________

eternaltriangle:

Say what you will about his abilities as a pollster, Zogby has balls.

____________________

Rasmus:

I agree.
And I find this results not so absurd.
It is a good chance for him to improve his bad reputation- should Obama win big, almost everybody but him were wrong (including SUSA) and he was right.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

all i can really say here is wow. I think NC is spot on, and I think a LOT of pollsters are going to be embarassed tomorrow. PPP will regain its reputation for being the only one besides Zogby to nail NC at double digits for Obama.

As for Indiana, well, we'll see. Clinton's support is soft. Lets see who turns out tomorrow.

____________________

fed:

47Obama to 41 Clinton on monday?????? That is a big jump. Same thing in NC. If they are correct it may be a reversal from the rev Wright story. Tracking polls nationally are starting to show the same trend

____________________

fed:

In indiana Monday's poll gave 47 O to 41 C. Big jump, same think in NC. This could be a reversal from the rev Wright story. National tracking polls are also showing this trend. Some might be surprised tomorrow.

____________________

SvK:

H.RC.eeeeyyyaaaaa!

Zogby is right on!

GOBAMA 08, 012, then to the supreme court

SvK


____________________

cinnamonape:

Some Indiana reports coming in about the early voting and absentee voting. Both set all-time records...160,000!! And the votes were substantial in Lake (in the Chicago Metro area), Marion (Purdue, Indianapolis), and Monroe (Indiana University). These are thought to be Obama strongholds. But the other high turnouts were also in "College Counties" like St. Jos., Vandenberghe (Evansville), Vigo, Hamilton (IU South Bend) and Allen. Obama actively encouraged early voting and targetted registration in these areas (which also was way up). For those who read tea leaves it would seem to look good for Obama.

At the same time these don't come with results. So maybe they are a sign of Hillary efforts.

But beware of the exit polls tomorrow. These voters won't be counted, and thats a substantial number and could lower the sample of folks in those demographics.

____________________

Shadar:

"Say what you will about his abilities as a pollster, Zogby has balls."

This just about sums things up.

As much as I wish Obama would somehow win Indy and end this nightmare I don't think he will, Hillary will take Indy by 5-6%. On the plus side Obama will take NC by 15% which in reality shuts the door on this thing... but shuts it very very slowly, instead of the resounding slam that a double win would provide. If Hillary wants to put super-glue in the door and stop it from shutting she has to out-margin Obama, meaning her margin in Indy has to be larger than his in NC. NC is the larger delegate state, she can't allow him to gain a larger delegate lead with so few states remaining.

____________________

Rasmus:

And here is my "Final Prediction"- based on the General Election polls and the 538 Regression, but a slightly different weighting system:

North Carolina
Obama 57,5% vs.
Clinton 42,5%

Indiana
Obama 51,9%
Clinton 48,1%

I´m prepared to be 10 points off with my Indiana prediction, but nevertheless, that´s it.

____________________

akamrearl:

On MSNBC someone from the national journal reported clinton internal polls showing a 10 pt clinton advantage in Lake County. If that holds, clinton should take Indiana by more than 6 points.

____________________

ca-indp:

Naaa! Whenever Zogby is out of step with other polls he is wrong. Good for Hillary. He is mostly wrong anyway. Remember his brother is big Obama supporter.
Obama hack prepare for big disappoment tomorrow if yuo are counting on Zogby.

____________________

ca-indp:

Naaa! Whenever Zogby is out of step with other polls he is wrong. Good for Hillary. He is mostly wrong anyway. Remember his brother is big Obama supporter.
Obama hacks prepare for big disappoment tomorrow if yuo are counting on Zogby.

____________________

JS:

In both states Zogby seems to be relatively internally consistent, and out of step with most of the others. Others favor HRC in both states.

More out of step w/ SUSA and ARG. It looks like they are pushing undecideds more. Will be interesting to see if undecideds break the same way as in the past, and turnout patterns are the same. If so it's more favorable to HRC. But you could argue this was either way I think.

We'll see tomorrow.

____________________

Bonowski:

Okay, so Zogby Polling has really screwed up in CA and OH. However, Zogby may have learned its lesson with PA, as it nailed the 10 point win by Clinton: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1489

I think Obama will still win NC by a significant margin, but I don't know if it will be THAT close in Indiana. I would love to see Obama win both states, but I still think Clinton is going to edge him out by 3 - 5 points in Indiana...unfortunately.

____________________

Paul:

RE: Delegate count.

The following analysis does not take into account Michigan or Florida.

Before Indiana and North Carolina, there are 693 delegates outstanding, including super-delegates where Clinton leads by 15 and pledged delegates where Obama leads by 154. Overall, therefore as of right now, Obama leads by 139 delegates.

North Carolina has 115 pledged delegates and Indiana 72 pledged delegates bringing the total number of outstanding delegates down to 506 after tonight.

If pledged delegates split evenly in total between NC and IN, which based on polls overall would seem a better than best case scenario for Clinton, then Obama would lead by 139 with 506 to go. This would mean that Clinton would need 323 (63.8%) to Obama 183. If an Obama win in North Carolina wins more delegates than Clinton wins in Indiana, which based on polling is what is expected, then Clinton deficit increases and percent needed to win from outstanding delegates increases.

As has been stated before often, the only recourse Clinton would seem to have is to somehow bring Michigan and Florida back into consideration and to convince remaining super-delegates.

____________________

Paul:

In terms of "not sure" in Indiana, here is a small piece of what final Zogby cross-tabs show:

Obama ahead overall by 2.5%, within the statistical margin of error (45.3% to 42.8%)

Not sure are likely white, more likely to be women and come largely from "Rest of North". Whites (HRC up 7.1%), women (HRC trails by only 0.5%) and "Rest of North" (HRC up by 1.8%).

Details ---

Not sure 7.0% out of total (AA 0.4% out of 7.0% and all females 4.6% out of 7.0%). Perhaps more important, "not sure" is largely a "Rest of North" phenomenon (5% out of 7.0% not sure), where Clinton leads by 1.8%. Obama leads in Indianapolis metro by 31.5%, where not sure is only 1% of total 7.0% not sure.

Conclusion: small percent of AA not sure, higher percent of female not sure, and preponderance of not sure in "Rest of North" would seem to suggest that bias for remaining not sure (7%) would break for Clinton.

____________________

jac13:

One interesting thing about Indiana -- by this time in Zogby's PA polling the undecided voters had started breaking for Clinton and she was opening up a measurable lead (if I recall, beyond MOE and close to or beyond the 9% margin she ultimately got). By contrast, in Indiana they seem to be staying unsure, or maybe leaning a little towards Obama. Cause for optimism for him?

____________________

Rasmus:

ca-indp:
Your bias is boring. WHen Zogby wanted to help Obama, he would be lowering exspectations. Not that one. Maybe he was off, but not because of bias, but because off sampling errors etc.pp.

And things like the Ann&Selzer GE poll (Obama +8; CLinton tied) are also backing this up.

____________________

IdahoMulato:

This is my prediction:

NC: Obama 58%; Clinton 42%.
IN: Obama 50.5%; 49.5%.

____________________

damitajo1:

my prediction: zogby's way off. they have clinton and obama tied among women. when was the last time they came this close among women without significant amounts of black women in the population?

____________________

kingsbridge77:

Obama supporters are so childish. They praise Zogby for a poll before the election results even come out. If they like what they see, they say Zogby has "balls", whatever that strange analysis means.

Then they cherrypick PA as proof Zogby kicks ass. EVERY pollster every once in a while gets it perfectly right in at least one state; but see the overall picture. Overall, Zogby has been a charlatan, inaccurate Obama supporting unprofessional pollster.

____________________

jac13:

damitajo -

Maybe Obama is actually doing better with women in these states. In states where he has done well, such as Wisconsin, Virginia, Maryland and Missouri, he has either won that group or cut into Clinton's margins.

It's possible that the gas-tax holiday has been a mixed blessing for her: appealing to low-income voters (whom she already has on her side) but making her sound opportunistic and inauthentic to others -- including women.

____________________

jac13:

kingsbridge -

Cut it out with the insults. Doesn't it cause you any pause at all when you go to click the button that says, "Post an INTELLIGENT AND CIVIL comment?"

Why is it that you and the other die-hard Clinton supporters can tout the polls that look good to you and dismiss the others, but when Obama supporters do it they are "childish?"

Comments like this taint an otherwise civil, high-minded site where people debate polling methodology. Why don't you go post on one of the other sites where people on both sides routinely hurl insults at one another?

____________________

PHGrl:

my first reaction is WOW - but for so many reasons.

1. If the Wright garbage did blow over in time, with attention paid to the issues (i.e., Gas tax), both polls are were i would expect them to be.

2. the comments section on this site have gotten a little out of hand, if i wanted to read comments like this w/obama & clinton supporters firing back at each other, i could have went on CNN or MSNBC and read comments posted there..

isnt pollster.com about the art and science of polling? should our comments reflect Mark & co's thoughtful and intelligent posts?

____________________

Good Morning guys.
I said and I keep it: Obama is gonna win NC by around 15% and now it is not just me and zogby who thinks so.

The Drudge is reporting that Hillary's people are predicting a 15-point defect in NC. You know, they have their internals and that is what these are showing.

Remember that I said that IN would be Hillary? Well, the Drudge is reporting that according with Hillary Camp's internals they are gonna win NC. The Drudge is not saying for how much, but I think it will be around the same as PA, high single digits.

All I can wish Barack is to keep IN maybe around 6% but who knows.

What is sure is that he will have a good night in NC.

____________________

carl29:

I'm sorry, I messed up. HILLARY CAMP IS PREDICTING A BIG DEFEAT IN NORTH CAROLINA AND A WIN IN INDIANA.

The defeat in NC is gonna be a blow out.
The victory in IN? They didn't mention it, but I think it's gonna be around the same as PA.

____________________

jac13:

I wonder who Drudge's pipeline into the Clinton campaign is. Didn't we get one of these "insider" reports a couple of weeks ago -- can't remember the substance; maybe it was that they were going to go negative -- that was categorically denied by Garin?

____________________

carl29:

The day before the PA primary, when everyone was talking about how close the results could be, Drudge reported that the internals at Hillary Camp were showing her up by 11%. So, I can't imagine who is feeding them with all these information but the truth is that they have shown that there is "some relationship" in her inner circle.

____________________

jac13:

Thanks, Carl. That's what I was trying to remember. I still think there's a chance of an Obama upset in Indiana, BTW.)

____________________

kingsbridge77:

jac, you are hypersensitive. Whining is not a good thing. When people make childish comments they are childish, and childish they will be called. To say a pollster has "balls" just becaused he released a poll you liked is childish.

____________________

kingsbridge77:

Carl29 did not learn his lesson. Drudge said on primary day in PA that he had information that Obama had lost by only 4%. He ended up losing by 9.2%. But Obama supporters just love Drudge, who also said with no evidence whatsoever that someone in the Clinton campaign circulated the picture of Obama in Somalia.

Their motto should be "In Drudge We Trust".

____________________

jac13:

kingsbridge -

Not wishing to be confronted with insults on a site that is about polling and polling methodology is not being hypersensitive. Asking people to refrain from posting insults is not "whining." In my world, it's called "civility," and you could use a little of it.

I didn't make the "balls" comment, but what's wrong with noting that a pollster appears to be taking a risk? It's not even in the same league as calling him a "charlatan."

____________________

carl29:

I'm NOT talking about "EXIT POLLS." I'm talking about INTERNALS, the ones made by the campaigns. The day before the PA the drudge had information from the Hill Camp that she was up by 11%.

Exit polls taken through the day just tells you who is ahead at that time. For example, the report that came out at 1:00 p.m in PA had Hillary up by 17 points, Why? Old people tend to vote earlier. The second wave of polls, around 5:00 p.m., had Obama trailing Hillary by 4 points, but there were at least 2 hours of voting to go. Then, people coming from work went to vote and then Hillary just pulled ahead even more.

I think that exit polls have to be taken with a grain of salt because they only reflect who is voting at what time.

Internals are a whole different world. Why do you think that these politicians spend so much money on their pollsters?

____________________

Josh:

carl29:

It is important to consider the source when citing "internal polling" from campaigns. First, keep in mind that campaigns don't have any magic that makes their polls better than anyone else's. They're just trying to lower expectations in NC. If they say 15 they probably expect to lose by 10.

There's no risk to them in predicting victory in IN since they're out if they lose. They don't cite a margin in IN because they want to set the bar at a point where a win by any margin for Clinton is considered a victory. Also, maybe their IN polls show a wide margin for Clinton and they don't want to set the bar that high.

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

kingsbridge,

Zogby is a "charlatan" because he messed up with OH, and was way off in CA? And you blame Obama supporters for cherry-picking polls and acting childish? Do a little research on Zogby before you believe the Clinton supporters' line that Zogby is crap. His screw-up in CA got a lot of coverage and so now everyone thinks he's the worst pollster ever. Just simply not true. Before you embarrass yourself, do some research.

Of note: Indiana does not allow automated surveys. I don't know how this would affect SUSA. Zogby does theirs through live interview. Maybe hes on to something ?

____________________

tom brady:

Here's my worry about Zogby in Indiana - he's got Obama winning 55-64 year olds, 43-32, and Hillary winning 25-34 year olds. Since when has that happened in a state without a significant black vote?

____________________

Nickberry:

A political pundit on MSNBC yesterday says that she spoke with a Clinton campaign staffer who says their internal polls show Hillary doing well in the Obama stronghold of northwest Indiana because of it being within the Chicago media market... and that media market has been airing the Wright story almost continuously. (Makes sense because it is Chicago "politics.") In other words, Obama was not able to put the Wright story behind him in his home territory when the national media had already started moving on on.

By the way... this "gas tax holiday" (although considered political pandering) has legs. One only need to review the history of Democrat "ideas" during the Depression and the subsequent take over nation wide by the Democrats and FDR's election to realize that "short term" solutions are popular among the voters during economic downturns.

____________________

desirous:

"eternaltriangle:

Say what you will about his abilities as a pollster, Zogby has balls."

You mean, testicular fortitude.

Jokes aside, I doubt Zogby is correct. SUSA has been horribly wrong only once, and odds are this won't be a second time they're off by 13 points.

____________________

Claude:

I don't think the Gas Tax issue is going to work for Hillary. Look at the latest CBS poll in which most people consider it to be a pander.

____________________

tom brady:

Claude - the problem is that Clinton is using the gas tax to target her voters - not "most people". if it motivates low income voters to get to the polls, it's a winning issue; she doesn't really care about the national perspective, just the perspective of voters in NC and Indiana, particularly those potential Hillary voters....

____________________

Mike_in_CA:

tom,

interesting point that i hadn't thought of. on the flip side, does it energize Obama's base by reinforcing their "Anyone but Hillary the liar and panderer" meme? Also, how does it affect undecideds, because, as we know every cycle, the election of the most powerful person in the world is often decided by 10% of the "undecided" population. uf.

____________________

Chenna:

I was wondering if all of the polls coming out for Indiana poll just Democratic voters or does it also poll Republican and Independent voters?

Being that this is an open primary and Obama does well with those two groups, I think that the final results in Indiana may surprise a lot of people, especially all of the political pundits.

____________________

political_junki:

Wow. It seems Zogby has been the closest in both NC and IN! It took a lot of courage for them to publish their "outlier" results last night, one night before primary. Now it is paying off...

____________________

IdahoMulato:

ca-indp:
Zogby has nail it this time, They were outliers and yes they were outliers, They were on taget at NC and the lowest range in IN.
Now I'm waiting for your spin ca-indp. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. SUSA was the worse this time around with the highest range.

____________________

IdahoMulato:

ca-indp:
Zogby has nail it this time, They were outliers and yes they were outliers, They were on taget at NC and the lowest range in IN.
Now I'm waiting for your spin ca-indp. Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. SUSA was the worse this time around with the highest range.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR