Pollster.com

Hahah...

Before everyone gets too excited, look at the subsamples. Among women, for example, he shows Obama at only 42%, as compared to LATimes/Bloomberg showing an 11 point Obama lead among women and Quinnipiac where Obama leads among women 53-39. When pollsters have a likely voter model, then their sample becomes not a sample of the true electorate but a sample of the people in the general population who meet the pollster's criteria for being a likely voter. And there is still a margin of error for that. If Zogby's subsample of women had shown 53% support for Obama like Quinnipiac's, then Obama would probably be the one leading the Zobgy poll 46-41. Now, really, which is more likely for Obama's support among women- 42% or 53%.

@gregspolitics

The whole sample looks skewed. In addition to women, this poll shows Obama losing 12 points in the under 35 age group, from 59 to 47. Democrats, College grads, people living in cities, people with incomes less than 50K, they have all dropped double digits in their support for Obama if this poll is to be believed. I think this one qualifies as "loopy".

gfjg

We will know soon enough if this is an outlier poll but there can be no doubt we are in a McCain trend. Obama's attacks are not gaining traction mainly due to Obama's visible discomfort in the attack mode. He seriously needs a VP that is capable hitting hard. And he has got to redefine "new politics" away from the naive idealism. In US politics nice=weak.

Exactly sjt22. I have noticed that Zogby seems to have large subsample swings from poll to poll that just cannot be a reflection of what is happening in the electorate.

While the sample is debatable there is no doubt that the race is tightening. This one's going to be a squeaker!

No matter how you spin it, Obama is sinking, just as I've been predicting. He's now underperforming the generic "Democrat vs. Republican" match-up polls by almost 20 pts! For ANY Republican to be even tied (much less slightly ahead) with ANY Democrat right now is truly amazing. It just shows that the Dems selected the weakest general election candidate (not to mention one with all the same Demographic problems - some worse - as 4 out of 5 recent Democratic losers: McGovern, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry). Of course Obama will get a 'bounce' from the convention. But if he really picks such a lackluster VP as Biden or Kaine, it'll be short lived. And if McCain picks someone exciting (e.g. a woman or ethnic minority), McCain will leave his convention ahead by at least 5 pts. History always repeats itself. Just watch.

I do believe that Obama's lead has narrowed as McCain has consolidated his base and perhaps, moved some former Obama supporters to undecided, meaning that there will be relatively more polls showing a narrow McCain lead on his side of the polling deviation from the true result, whatever it may be, but Obama should get some of those undecideds back from his VP choice and convention while I do not think that McCain has as much potential on his side.

Zogby is the same guy who had a "poll" the night before the CA primary with Obama winning by 15%. His cred really has taken a hit in 2008. That being said, this may finally awaken Obama and his team to start getting down in the gutter with McCain. The only message McCain has is don't trust that uppity feller.

i will say this one more time. these polls aee meaningless.2 weeks ago usa today/gallup had a poll with mccain leading by 5 why tere gallup had obama leading by 6. then for 2 weeks all the polls had obama leading 2 to 5 points. now there is ONE poll with mccain leading by 5 nationally and once again others with obama leading by 2 to 5 points.also concerning state polls. those polls that areso call trending towards mccain are all ones where he is expected to win with the exception of minnesota. and even those polls are varying from 2 to 4 points all obama leading. so this is a tyoical election. noone really knows anything but a sample gives them and that is not always representative of the true electorate. you cna say im spinning if you want but its the truth. besided jsut like anything else in this polls have agendas too. keep it close or throw in an outlier and people will continue to watch the polls. if it showed either one with a major lead then noone would care.in 2004 i knew bush would win but even up to the week of the election they tried to nake it sound like kerry was leadin and bush was introuble. it wasnt tru but it made for good news.same here.

saywhat90-
"i knew bush would win but even up to the week of the election they tried to nake it sound like kerry was leadin and bush was introuble"

You know I make spelling and grammar mistakes too. It may be unfair but people really do judge you based on that stuff. Maybe you should go to night school and take an English composition class. It does make a difference in how seriously people take your ideas.

It's well known that Zogby is a fan and supporter of the Clintons. Could be that the weights have been changed from June to show this kind of disparity. Could he be trying to help Hillary get the VP slot? What this poll indicates to me is that there has been a 6% shift of support from Obama to McCain. It shows a huge drop in the younger age group. However this might be true. I was on campus last week and I ask some of that age group about their support for Obama. Their answers indicated that they had lowered their enthusiasm somewhat. It was a different atmosphere from what I saw on campus last year.

If there is one consistent attribute of Zogby's work, it is that at least every other poll will be an outlier. A cynic might note that this track record allows his media clients to claim huge shifts in sentiments either away from or back to a poll average.

I'm bothered by something that doesn't really show up in these polls. It is the underlying affiliation to socialism in this country. Yesterday the NYTimes published an oped written by former Russian president M. Gorbachev. He basically blamed the U.S.(support for Georgia) and the press(reporting one side) for the events that were happening in Georgia. He praised V. Putin's actions. The responses on the blog were greatly in favor of what Gorbachev wrote. They agreed that our country was probably responsible because of our foreign policy. Most saw nothing wrong with Putin's actions. Russia is a socialist country as is France. The Rev. Rick Warren said Monday that the Trinity church that Obama was a member of was founded in South America by a socialist movement.He said that the black theology church had never really been a christian church. He said that he had just returned from SA and that the foundation there had been disbanded. The far left liberals are mostly non church goers.

Zogby was just on the radio and while he stood by the method o fhis poll, the take away was that "Barack Obama needs one hell of a convention" which I don't think any of us will doubt.

For those of you who want an explanation of the Zogby poll, here is a link to the story in the Washington Post. Zogby gives a legit explanation for the results. The scary part for Obama supporters is that this poll was taken before his performance at the religious forum.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/20/AR2008082000995.html

Makes me laugh when someone comes to a "poll" site and then states that "polls do not mean anything."

Most of really do understand that these are statistical samples, but they also do mean something. Obama is losing his lead and the race is very very close.

And someone needs to refresh their knowledge on what "outlier" means as well as margin of error. This is for the Obamanation. Look at it this way. With a margin of error McCain could also be at 43% and Obama at 44%. So for all you this poll could be Obama 44/McCain 43. Does that make you feel better?

But then again that could also mean that July's poll was possibly also Obama 44%/McCain 43.

What is really telling is that Obama has lost and McCain has gained on several issues and among demographics. This is also shown by the other national polls as well as state polls. The trend toward McCain really does exist.

No one who raises the spectre of 'socialism' the way player does is knowledgeable, intelligent, or dispassionate enough to comment on current events, whether in Georgia or the US. I remember this kind of language from my childhood in the 1950s.

But thank you, you other commentators, who have increased my understanding about polls and polsters.

The fact is, when I saw on the news -- I live in Europe -- that Obama was down by 5% my first thought was, I better see what Pollster.com says about this poll. My second thought was, I'll bet the poll in question is Zogby.

@Lappel 1:
With that view, one wouldn't doubt that you reside in Europe. Also you can leave off the ad hominem attack about my intellect; I will guarantee that it is up to speed with yours.

I've read the Zogby poll and I can't believe that so many women and young people have abandoned Obama in a month. After Denver, women will come back to Obama and his numbers will improve. I'm assuming this to be an aberrant poll, though the race does remain close with a trend towards McCain.

That said, I think that McCain might have created a problem for himself because the image he's created about Obama simply is not accurate, and once people watch him at the convention and see that he does have concrete ideas (all of those Democratic debates don't lie) and that he really is a charismatic person compared to McCain, they might come away saying, "Hey, he's not (so) bad (at all). Putting both of them on the same stage is not good for McCain.

In the end, this will be a close race and anyone who is expecting a landslide on either end is fooling themselves. Hillary would have just as much trouble if she were the nominee simply because so many people just plain hate her.

This is my first post, so please tell me if there's some protocol to this site that I need to follow.

I give as much credit to Zogby as I give to my dog. This poll contradicts every other national trend, similarly it wasn't long ago Zogby had Obama up by 12%. Zogby has credibility gap that is fascinating.

I'm not an Obama supporter and I still call BS on this poll. Samples don't make any sense, looks like a serious fluke.

It looks like 99% sure that Obama's VP will be Bayh. That is actually a good selection for him. Unlike most democrats, Bayh has a little conservatism left. However, Obama will need to explain why he picked someone who voted for the Iraq war resolution and the patriot act extension to be his running mate. The first is what Obama has been clubbing his opponents with. Even though he had no vote in the affair, he has accused Clinton, Edwards, and anyone else who voted for it as being at fault. Is it any wonder now that this guy has flipped again and now is choosing someone in contrast to his ideology? We can be sure of one thing; he will give a ready made speech on the wisdom of his pick.

@ player

Well it wouldn't be fair if only McCain got to flip flop on things. And where are you getting this 99% certainty from?

Though released just today, this poll was in the field last week--while Obama was off the campaign trail. McCain, meanwhile, received a fair amount of media attention.

Three other national polls more recently in the field show Obama leading McCain--Times/Bloomberg (released yesterday but actually in the field more recently), today's Gallup tracking, and today's Rasmussen tracking.

Rasmussen is already pushing leaners; it's too early for this pushing to make sense. Leaners are undecideds who still have a lot of time to make up their minds. The result of Rasmussen's pushing almost always favors McCain (today it cuts Obama's lead from three to one).

@SJT22:
McCain spaces his flip flops out over decades. Obama does it over a matter of months. His flip flops are comparative to a woman that goes shopping but can't make up her mind on what she wants. She then buys something on a whim only to return it a couple of days latter for something else. I got the 99% from Obama making an important announcement in Indianapolis on Sunday. Gentlemen start your engines.

Let me make sure I understand this correctly. There are macho flip-flops and sissy flip-flops. So which type would it be if you said on Saturday that your administration will be pro-life and then on Monday say you want a pro-choice VP? STOOPID!

@zotz:
You missed the point completely; and that fact shows that you are completely biased.