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POLL: Zogby Texas and Ohio


Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby

Texas
Obama 45, Clinton 43... McCain 54, Huckabee 31, Paul 7

Ohio
Clinton 45, Obama 45... McCain 58, Huckabee 23, Paul 8

 

Comments
John Grillo:

Clinton had a good day of polling in TX yesterday, and Obama yesterday in OH. Early voting in TX suggests 1/3 have already voted--that's substantial. It's going to be close but 1 thing for sure, Clinton isn't going to get the significant wins in TX and OH she'll need to catch up on delegates. I predict Obama will get more delegates in TX as a result of the evening Caucases to follow on election eve. I just don't see a path to the nomination that would not destroy the Democratic Party.

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JON:

John Grillo, are you blind? Obama with all of the money he is spending should be win every state on Tuesday b/c he's outspent her in ads and yet she is still up in most of the states.

This is bad news for Obama who has according to to
M.S.N.B.C- Media Saying Natural Bull**** Channel. "Momentum". I think the voters are feeing "Buyer's remorse".

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InfoGiant:

Uh, Hillary was up by 20 pts in both states and lost that in two weeks. JON, who really has the problem here. You and Hillary are spinning the same lame story. Ironic, since that's exactly why she's become a good loser.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/

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illinoisindie:

Or Jon you could look at it in the light of him cutting a 20 pt lead down to virtually zero. How could this possibly be bad news... Spin spin spin. She's the one behind. and they say the Obamabots are delusional. At the end of the day she'll still be down in delegates heading into contest that "favor" obama.

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John Grillo:

One thing to watch in TX on election eve is the % of African-American voters. 25% would be considered high, but I think Obama needs at least 27% to 30% to win. If Obama can pull Hispanic voters to under 20% (i.e. anything equal to or better than 60 - 40) he'll win by at least 5%. Problem is that I don't think he's going to reach that threshold...this is going to be close here in TX.

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John SFL:

No, JON, you're the blind one. You're saying Obama can win 10 in a row but March 4th is a MUST WIN for him. The person who absolutely has to win is Clinton. All Obama has to do is tie the rest of the way and he wins very comfortably. If Clinton can come out with more delegates on March 4th that would be the first day so far that she will have been able to do that. But maybe a Texas lawsuit delays the counting long enough so that the anti-Clinton media reports that she's winning for once.

I know polls are imperfect but exactly which state or national trend-line is showing this "buyer's remorse"?

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illinoisindie:

Grillo,
I agree, for some reason though I dont buy into the 70-30 split of the AA vote, for the simple extension of the 80-20 trend we have seen in other states. Anyway as the pollsters are indicating it comes down to turnout cause this race really is tied...high turnout = OBAMA victory in texas it seems

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John Grillo:

I actually think the AA vote will be better than 80 - 20 for Obama, although I agree it is a good-conservative estimate. More like 85% of the vote. The AA turnout will decide Texas in my opinion. Early voting in Dallas, Houston, and Galveston has sky-rocketed that's a good sign for Obama, although Hispanic turnout is doing well too.

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Travis:

@JON: Lol, already towing the Clinton's line, eh?

Sounds offly familiar to what Howard Wolfson, Clinton's chief spin master, has just recently said:

"He has all the advantages," Wolfson continued. "He's got great press. He's got a huge spending disparity. He's telling people that he's the nominee. He acting like he's the nominee. So, if he doesn't win all four of the contests, I think it demonstrates that there is a concern on the part of Democrats with giving him the nomination. And we're banking that that concern is real."

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Judy:

Interesting contrast of two candidates. Guess who is who?


CANDIDATE1:
Exploits FEARs of common people. Sees people as mere voting blocks. Users divide and conquer as the primary means to scrape through minimum needed votes to get into POWER.

Stoops to any level and uses any means to capture the ROYAL THRONE at ANY cost.


CANDIDATE2:
Positive, level-headed, discerning, unifying, financially prudent. Believes that democracy is for the people and by the people and plans to curtail special interest influence on government. Shows an example of it through an unprecedented grass-root campaign and fund-raising.

Appeals to the higher HOPES and ASPIRATIONS of people to elect him the LEADER OF THIS GREAT NATION.


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Kevin:

If Clinton can't win TX and OH by >10 points, the delegate situation will be so unfavorable to her the rest of the primary season will turn on this question: is Clinton willing to prolong the process for another 4-5 months so she can stave off defeat for as long as possible? Go with the most favorable scenario for her--she wins the nomination in August off of superdelegates--and who thinks she could pull the party together in two months? If Hillary becomes the new Huckabee and this costs the Dems the general, that loss would be notorious.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

JON: "This is bad news for Obama who has according to to M.S.N.B.C- Media Saying Natural Bull**** Channel. 'Momentum. I think the voters are feeing 'Buyer's remorse'."

I'll be glad when this part of the 2008 campaign is over and crazy people shut up. Since Clinton started losing, her supporters certainly seem to have the lion's share of the crazies.

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BitJam:

Jon,

If you really are a Clinton supporter, you should realize that you are not helping her cause when you repeat glib talking points at Pollster.com. If you cause anyone to change their mind (which is doubtful) it will not be towards supporting Clinton.

There are plenty of places on the Web that would welcome the political discussions your comments have fostered but Pollster.com is supposed to be about the polls, not political debates. I come here to get away from the partisan bickering.

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Pat:

The Clinton camp are really the spin masters.
Just two weeks ago, Texas and Ohio were clinton's firewalls and she had a 20 point lead. Now they are claiming that Obama should win all four states.

HRC knows she can not get enough deligates to win the nomination. Her strategy is to delay the nomination all the way to convetion and in the process get enough smear out on Obama for Republicans to use against him.

She is really not a democrat. I remember several years ago they were calling Bill Clinton the best republican president.


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Let's all just ignore the spinners, shall we?

Zogby naturally doesn't tell us much about what's deep in the crosstabs, but he certainly has some target level of independents that he is including. Do you think he would have used data from other states to estimate that? I'm wondering if these guys generally are trying to learn as they go in the primaries, since the predictive quality has been rather low so far.

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Illinois Will:

JON's an idiot. That's all I have to say about him.

With the exception of PPP, most of these polling models are seriously flawed. They poll based on "typical" turnout. They should poll based on "record" turnout, which is what we'll see again this Tuesday. (500,000 early votes already cast in TX? Are you kidding me?)

Which way are those additional voters leaning? With the guy who has won 67% of all primaries/caucuses thus far.

Look at the archived polls on this site. See how those numbers dramatically underestimated the enthusiasm for BO and over-estimated the support for HRC?

It's mourning in America - angry hard line democrats mourning the loss of the Clinton dynasty while they realize they did teach their kids well. They taught them so well the kids are willing to look mom & dad in the eye and say their day is over. It's time for us.

It's not a bunch of punk kids supporting BO. The first internet literate generation of college graduates just turned 30. They were so disenchanted for the last 12 years they never bothered to show up. Guess what JON? We're baaaack!!!!!!

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MZ:

Erik, Thank you for that level-headed remark. I want to emphasize something I posted elsewhere today on pollster.com. Many are unaware of news reports, here in Michigan, which indicate the DNC will seat Michigan and Florida delegates. Two weeks ago, Obama's own Michigan campaign organization informed him in writing that they would not support any effort by him to halt the seating of the Michigan delegation. When the DNC announced they would strip Michigan of its delegates, for moving up the primary date, Hillary and several other Democratic candidates (I believe Kucinich, Dobbs, and Richardson) all refused to remove their names from the ballot, to show solidarity with Michigan Democrats. Obama, knowing he would lose Michigan, voluntarily removed his name. However, there was heavy campaigning by Obama surrogates, via the media, to cast an "uncommitted" vote for him in Michigan. Michigan party officials have repeatedly said, in recent interviews, that they are absolutely confident we will be seated. In reality, Obama is not currently ahead in the polls, because you have to suppress over two million votes in Michigan and Florida, and delete their superdelegates, to come up with that result. The national media is distorting this race by reporting Obama as the front-runner. He is really trailing Hillary, especially since the Michigan and Florida superdelegates are in her court. Obama must win Ohio and Penn. by large margins to have any credibility as the "front-runner." So far, he has won in small caucuses (20 to 30 thousand) in Republican states, or in southern states with greater than 25% African Americans. Those states are going to McCain in November. Obama has lost New York, California, Michigan, and Florida -- all states critical to a Democratic win in November. If he doesn't pull off a significant victory in Ohio, he will not be the nominee. It's a sure sign of disaster in NOvember. Michigan will not be re-voting as it would be against Michigan law to do so. The primary cost $10 million, and voting was heavier than in previous primary elections. The sooner Obamatrons realize that their man is trailing in this contest, the better. Please focus your energy on getting your candidate to win Ohio and Penn., if you want to him to succeed. Michigan and Florida will be seated. The DNC will not disenfranchise over 2 million loyal Democrats in key states. Obama has had the advantage, for a month now, as being portrayed (falsely) by the media as the front-runner with momentum. If he can't win Ohio, with that kind of distortion working against Hillary, he is not a candidate the Democrats can possibly support.

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Bill R.:

With all this trash talk, has anyone suggested that perhaps Zogby is trash?

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Lisa M:

I am so pleasd that these states have come to Obama. I remember when I came to Obama and Il'l never forget it. It is incredible how his character have been challenged and yet there he is, standing proud, tall, and strong, like the Statue of Liberty. I can only hope that the stupid bee-atch drops out once our boy destroys her.

Zogby is not trash just because you do'nt like his result. Give it up for OBAMA!

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HSNoor:

Zogby had given 13 plus points to Obama in California.
How can Zogby be trusted for Ohio and Texas?

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Urban Haiku:

MZ is as f'ed up as her candidate Hillary Dogbone Klinton! You cannot stop BARACK OBAMA. YOU CANNOT EVEN HOPE TO CONTAIN HIM. SO STFU NAYSAYERS AND HATERS!

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Lawrence Gwyn:

Guys. We have to start the hating. I feel like I'm listening to Republicans. I know we feel strongly about our respective candidates and the two camps feel wronged or mischaracterized at times. There has been some ugly stuff so far, but we are all going to have to help ramp the fervor down. What good is it for us to beat each other bloody only to have our brains blown out by McCain. Everyone take a deep breath, fairly articulate your positions, and let the democratic process run its course. Unity against the Republicans in November is our ace in the hole. Don't destroy that; otherwise we will all suffer!

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Guys. We have to start the hating. I feel like I'm listening to Republicans. I know we feel strongly about our respective candidates and the two camps feel wronged or mischaracterized at times. There has been some ugly stuff so far, but we are all going to have to help ramp the fervor down. What good is it for us to beat each other bloody only to have our brains blown out by McCain. Everyone take a deep breath, fairly articulate your positions, and let the democratic process run its course. Unity against the Republicans in November is our ace in the hole. Don't destroy that; otherwise we will all suffer!

____________________

Guys. We have to start the hating. I feel like I'm listening to Republicans. I know we feel strongly about our respective candidates and the two camps feel wronged or mischaracterized at times. There has been some ugly stuff so far, but we are all going to have to help ramp the fervor down. What good is it for us to beat each other bloody only to have our brains blown out by McCain. Everyone take a deep breath, fairly articulate your positions, and let the democratic process run its course. Unity against the Republicans in November is our ace in the hole. Don't destroy that; otherwise we will all suffer!

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Jack SUCKS:

Used to respect Jack Nichols, but I will NEVER see a movie of his again now that I see his is spreading BS

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/01/jack-nicholson-films-ad-f_n_89342.html

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Thatcher:

In respect to FL - a minority of the Democrats in that state (24%) want the delegates to be seated "as is".

28% want a re-vote, 13% want the delegates to be seated - but split evenly between Clinton and Obama, and 15% believe that Florida Democratic Party broke the rules and should accept the penalty having no delegates be seated.

http://www.miamiherald.com/campaign08/story/437352.html

http://media.miamiherald.com/smedia/2008/02/28/15/FL208Poll.source.prod_affiliate.56.pdf


And, another intesting note - if you go to Real Clear Politics' web site and look at the current count (pledged and super delegates) - Obama has 1389, Clinton has 1279. If you add in the delegates from MI and FL as is - he is only behind by 1, before March 4 elections.

So, unless Clinton can really make a clean break on March 4, even with MI and FL they would be neck and neck with 12 contests remaining after that. Of those 12, Clinton is currently only expected to pick up about 4 and Obama 8.

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Steve:

These Zogby results actually seem reasonable, in comparison to other polls.

I think the best we can ascertain from all the polls is that it's going to be close in TX and OH. Although, Obama has pretty consistently outperformed the polls on election day.

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Patrick:

If Clinton wins in OH and RI as it appears she will (even by single margins), regardless of what happens in TX (but most especially if she eeks out a victory to near tie), she will stay in the race at least until PA (which is hers to lose) votes. That will give her 7 weeks (an eternity in a primary campaign) to regain momentum, keep making (along w/ McCain) the experience/qualification argument, strongly court the superdelegates by pointing out she has gotten more votes from actual Democrats and keeps winning the big "Blue" states, and keep pushing the issue of the FL and MI delegates with the DNC. That, coupled with the negative press that Obama is finally starting to get, could help her eek out the nomination in August. But if she loses both OH and TX, she's done. Once again, just like in the last 2 general elections, it's all about Ohio.

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RS:

Lawrence Gwyn:
I think you mean "stop the hating."

I think it is telling that the poster calling a respected US Senator a b*ch is anonymous. Moron. [FYI, I support Senator Obama.]
Senator McCain didn't use the B-word; a (female) "supporter" did, but Senator McCain didn't condemn the abusive language either. Not quite Presidential.

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mike in akron:

Anybody want to talk about the polls, not about your preferences for who wins? How about those who want to campaign do it somewhere else.

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John - Spokane, WA:


Here are numbers for you; 81% of people polled on Fox News today say that Obama has gotten a free ride by the Media and 19% said Hillary has.
Also
A new clear view poll today reports Texas a complete Dead Heat at 45 to 45% and 10% unsure.
They also showed her up in Polls in Ohio by about 6%.
Looks like wide margins are not going to happen for anybody on Tues in Texas or Ohio but maybe Vermont for Obama and RI for Hillary. STILL - Nobodys going to nail down enough delegates to win Nomination before Convention.

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Bill Ohio:

I think the idea that this is still a contest is largely a figment of people's imagination. If Clinton were to win EVERY remaining race by (55/45), 10 points she would still trail in pledged delegates 1633-1576, 57 delegates.

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

Effectively the race is over, Sen. Clinton is just being allowed to explore every option, of which there are none left. She needed 15+ wins in Ohio and Texas just to make this a contest, it won't happen.

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John - Spokane, WA:


Here's a few numbers for you mike;

These are from Fox News just today -

81% of people polled said Obama gets a free ride from the media and 19% said Hillary does
Also
Texas a dead Heat at 45% to 45% with 10% unsure for Hillary and Obama, by Clear view,
poll taken on 2-26.
Same pollster showed Hillary up 7% in Ohio.
Morning poll on Fox News showed Hillary "Most qualified to be President" by 58% to 40%.

Hillary picked up key Military Endorsements over last two days - Looks to be helping her.

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John - Spokane, WA:


Bill
The same could be said about Obama and that is HE WONT have enough Delegates to win the nominee either - This goes to the Convention.

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John - Spokane, WA:


Fox News just announced Democratic Race likely to go all the way to Convention.

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Harris:

Wow are you Obama supporters BRAINWASHED. You are telling me that you will support Obama on "Hope"? or even worse, the excuse that simply you just don't want another Clinton in the White House. What has America come too? Is there another Country in this world called land of the morons that you so called Obama supporters flew in from? If you agreed with Obama policy then that is ok and you have a legit arguement but, to suggest that you will support him for the reasons I stated are simply non-sense. I can't wait to see what will happen "if" Obama is elected? What is he going to wave his non-experienced magic wand or take a poll to see what is popular in order for him to make a decision.

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Gottlieb:

JON brings up an interesting point that I think deserves an explanation.

Why does Barack Obama have to outspend Hillary in order to just reach parity in the polls? The answer is only obvious to people who've worked in marketing.

For example, in Hollywood, one of the reasons sequels make financial sense is that they only have to spend roughly half as much on marketing, because the franchise is a known commodity. You see a similar effect in remakes/prequels/adaptations of tv shows/comics/well known books. Likewise, under most circumstances in politics, a challenger in a large scale campaign (i.e., campaigns where you can't rely on simple 'retail' politics, but also have to rely on big ad buys, ground operations, and GOTV efforts) can end up needing to outspend an incumbent by 2-1 if they have any hope of overcoming their opponents' 'mindshare' advantage. This is also why around 90% of incumbents in congress are re-elected. It's rare that challengers can raise enough to reach parity. Look at how little John McCain had to spend as opposed to Mitt Romney. McCain was a known and liked commodity. In a contest between Hillary and Obama, all Hillary has to do is effectively say "Hey, remember all the things you like about the name Clinton?", whereas Obama has to introduce himself to voters (called "bio spots"), explain his message, and convince voters to take a chance on him in a time of great unease and fear.

The Obama campaign has had an even tougher time than most challengers because he's not just a new kid on the block, but he's also fundamentally different in other ways. He looks different, has a strange name, and is promising a different kind of politics. He needs more time and money and organization to overcome voter anxiety and skepticism to such things. People like new things, but they don't want something that's "too new", that they have no context for. This is why Obama has often had to spend at a rate of 4-1 over Clinton in some states. He's had an uphill battle that could've been undone by a single landslide loss. (Whereas Hillary, on the other hand, has just weathered a dozen landslide losses and is still neck and neck with Obama.)

It seems that largely the effectiveness of the Obama campaign has been that they recognized this early on, and created a small donor system that would be able to fund the kind of outspending that they would have to do. If they hadn't been able to out-raise Hillary in the last couple months, Obama would have been toast on Super Tuesday, and would not have been able to recover.

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Bill Ohio:

I think the idea that this is still a contest is largely a figment of people's imagination. If Clinton were to win EVERY remaining race by (55/45), 10 points she would still trail in pledged delegates 1633-1576, 57 delegates.

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

Effectively the race is over, Sen. Clinton is just being allowed to explore every option, of which there are none left. She needed 15+ wins in Ohio and Texas just to make this a contest, it won't happen.

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Jane Espenson:

I love coming to Pollster.com to look at the poll results and read the comments because they're usually so free of invective and even free of discernible preference. I learned about polling methodology, how to evaluate and compare polls and how to interpret the results. Can't we get back to that level of discussion, please? I know who I'm voting for, so why do I care who any of you are voting for?

Can someone just please tell me something interesting about over-sampling, under-sampling, crosstabs or trends with regard to this particular Zogby result we're looking at here?

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mike in ohio:

thank you Jane. I don't understand what some of the people who post here are trying to prove. Let's talk about these polls, not why you think Hillary or Obama or McCain is wonderful or terrible.

please -- if you want to campaign, go to your local headquarters and sign up -- all you do here is waste space.

thanks

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Danielle:

There are a lot you don't know about Obama. Read more at.

http://www.BrainwashedNation.Org

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Tom:

I always find amusing the take by the Clinton campaign pointing out Obama's "lack of experience."

What matters is judgement. The man is bright, balanced and calm under pressure.

Just how much "experience" did Bill Clinton have before becoming president? Running a small state was something, but not a whole lot different that being heavily involved in Illinois "politics" and social reform.

Hillary needs to stop whining - with every whine, her polls drop - the old techniques don't work which is why Barack is on an upward trajectory in the polls. If he continues being himself, he'll be fine as will our country.

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Gottlieb:

Danielle, have you actually read that site that you're linking to? Half of the front page is taken up by crypto-racist rants about how the "muslims are taking over the country". (Which surprised me because they make up less than 1% of the population.) I also think it's telling that they link to freerepublic.com, a site associated with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth kingpin Jerome Corsi, and have long come under scrutiny for their racist, homophobic, and intolerant content.

I find it very illuminating that you would post that here.

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HSNoor:

Zogby had given 13 plus points to Obama in California.
How can Zogby be trusted for Ohio and Texas?

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HSNoor:

If Zogby gave 13 plus points to OBAMA in California, how can you trust Zogby in Ohio or Texas?

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Danielle:

Gottlieb, read more about "Building a Religion" at the same site

http://www.BrainwashedNation.Org

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Gottlieb, read more about "Building a Religion" at the same site"

Is it ironic that a person keeps posting this site over and over again? It's almost like they are trying to brainwash us.

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Bill Ohio:

Jon,

Perhaps I wasn't clear, I apologize. My point was not who could get to 2025, only that she could not catch up under almost any situation.

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Bill Ohio:

Quick Note:

When you see multiple post in a row with the same text don't assume the poster meant to multiple post. Each time I post I get a error message and if I refresh my post is repeated.

I realized this in another thread where I have 3 post in a row.

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jan:

There is something funny going on among the democrats, Hillarys supporters are frustrated because they believe that Bills experience should count, it come with his sperm to her that is why she is ready on day one but not ready to answer the fisrt question.
if the media likes Obama over Hillary is it his doing, is he responcible for Mark Penn.
and the "insult forty state" idea. just think about why you realy support Hillary (is it because she is Bills wife, old white lady, senator from new york or just VICTIM)
Hillary is now running for the VP slot, if she winns Ohio and Texas she will demand to be on the ticket, if she loses one of them by 1% she has no future in Democratic party, no senate seat, no nothing she burned alot of bridges.

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Bill Ohio is right: The double, triple and quadruple posts are our fault (a posting delay coupled with an odd error message). We will be making some changes in our comment system on Monday that will hopefully resolve these issues.

Meanwhile I have been trying to clean up the double posts and moderate some of the more immoderate comments posted here over the last few days. Again, debate the campaign if you must, but if you cannot keep it civil (and avoid name calling and abusive language), please, take it somewhere else.

PS: On cell phones, go here for a concise summary or here for all the gory details.

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Danielle:

Gottlieb, read more about "Building a Religion" at the same site

http://www.BrainwashedNation.Org

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gjon cima:

Did somebody sell his soul to Tonny Rezco?
Why nobody (but for ABC NEws) is mentioning this?

whre is the hope message here?

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Bill Ohio:

Mark,

Thank you very much for the great "Cell Only" information!

Bill

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Bill Ohio:

Mark,

Also just saw you on MSNBC, you did well!

Good facts, Latino 27% of poll, her goal to get over 30% turnout.

Bill

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JOHNM:


One day before california democrat elctions, Zogby polls showed that Obama had 49% of the votes, while Clinton had 36%.
Zogby polls are always way off. They always predict the opposite, if they say that Obama will win, in reality it means that she will.
I can't believe educated people in this Blog can't see that.
here are the poll results for California:

http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/california-democratic-republican-polls.html

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