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POLL: Zogby Texas and Ohio


Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby

Texas 2/29 - 3/2
Obama 47, Clinton 44... McCain 53, Huckabee 33, Paul 6

Ohio 2/29 - 3/2
Obama 47, Clinton 45... McCain 61, Huckabee 28, Paul 5

 

Comments
Brian:

If Zogby nails Ohio we should praise John Zogby for the remainder of the election cycle.

Zogby one the one polling outfit to nail Mizzou...

SurveUSA has this baby at ten points..they had Mizzou at 11 points.

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Mike in CA:

Good point Brian! Everyone has been saying how poorly Zogby has done, but really, the only contest they really screwed up was CA (and NH, but of course, everyone did there). They were on the money in MO, IA, SC, NV, etc. The states where they ran the rolling polls (IA, NV and SC) they were super close, even a little low on the final Obama win margin.

Bears watching...For some reason every other pollster is picking up a late swing to Clinton which I can't possibly imagine is real.

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HSNoor:

Zogby gave 13 plus points to Obama in California, how can Zogby poll in Ohio or Texas be reliable?
There is something wrong with Zogby.

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Steve:

Well, Zogby *might* get a mulligan for California because of early voting. The early voting in CA started long before many people knew much about Obama, and I think (not sure) that the early voting in CA was heavily in favor of Clinton.

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SONNY:

Looks like this guy sticks his finger in the wind and comes up with a prediction. Remember that this guy predicted Kerry win? Remember that he predicted that Obambi will win CA? I am surprised that he is still in business. He should be driven out of town and made to wash dishes in a grease bowl.

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SONNY:

Looks like this guy sticks his finger in the wind and comes up with a prediction. Remember that this guy predicted Kerry win? Remember that he predicted that Obambi will win CA? I am surprised that he is still in business. He should be driven out of town and made to wash dishes in a grease bowl.

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jerry rubin:

I would put money on his picks. He was right about the NY Giants.

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Rasmus:

I don�t give anything on the opinion of people calling the candidates Obambi or Hillbilly.

I think TX and OH will be close, with a margin of victory of less than 5%- maybe TX Obama 5% and OH Clinton 5%.

It doesn�t matter for the delegate race if she wins OH by 3 or loses it by 1- this is just symbolic.


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Gregster:

Shane,

The polls have been underpolling Obama's support the last few weeks. Look at Wisconsin.


Here are my predictions:


Texas - Obama 60% Clinton 40%

Ohio - Obama 52% Clinton 48%

Vermont - Obama 65% Clinton 35%

RI - Obama 51% Clinton 49%

Why the clean sweep? Momentum and enthusiasm. Ohio - as much as people don't want to admit it - is right in Obama's momentum wheelhouse. Just look at Wisconsin a few weeks ago. Clinton had a lead there and got absolutely crushed by almost 20 points. Why? Well it was pretty darn cold there on voting day. The people that vote when it is crazy cold outside are very motivated voters. Now, who has the enthusiasm aspect going for them this campaign - that is right, Obama does, and that is why he won by a large margin in Wisconsin. Therefore, I expect the same pattern to hold throughout many of the contests tomorrow.

We'll see how accurate I am compared with the pollsters!

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Suzie Perlstein:

I used to participate in the on line polling for Zogby, as a responder. It was fun, but not always correct.
I would be interested to know where his data comes from. If online it is different than telephone polling. Did he mix the results?
I think that might make a difference in the results.
Steve, if you are going to give Zogby a pass in CA for early voting, are you saying that if he misses in Texas and Ohio too he gets the same Pass? Both have early voting, in fact today, most states have early voting.
Polling is not an exact science. It's fun, but frankly anyone can say anything to a poll, and many people don't want to be asked.
I think the fact is that we won't know for days on Texas, and Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island will be pretty close to what we see now. My husband is a lawyer and he flew into Dallas today to aid in those crazy caucuses that have no leadership, to make sure there is no fighting, literally, or rule "interpretation". I wish I could be there too!
Zogby is a Super Delegate for Obama, based on a single issue: his perception that Obama, based on ONE speech in 2004, is more sympathetic to the Arab American community than Clinton. Therefore, I discount his results, because he wants the results to be pro Obama. I'm not saying he is doing a push poll, but he does look for the sunshine when ever he can, even if it's dark outside.

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Matt:

Predictions:

Texas - Obama 55% Clinton 45%

Ohio - Clinton 52% Obama 48%

Vermont - Obama 65% Clinton 35%

RI - Clinton 55% Obama 45%

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Todd:

Zogby seems to be overstating Obama's support throughout the primaries...

In four of the five Primaries that Zogby has polled in, they have overstated Obama's relative support.

CA -- 49-36, 13 pts. for Obama -- Clinton won by 9
NJ -- 46-41, 5 pts. for Clinton -- Clinton won by 10
MO -- 45-42, 3 pts. for Obama -- Obama won by 1
NH -- 42-29, 13 pts. for Obama -- Clinton won by 3
SC -- 41-26, 15 pts. for Obama -- Obama won by 29

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Todd:

Zogby seems to be overstating Obama's support throughout the primaries...

In four of the five Primaries that Zogby has polled in, they have overstated Obama's relative support.

CA -- 49-36, 13 pts. for Obama -- Clinton won by 9
NJ -- 46-41, 5 pts. for Clinton -- Clinton won by 10
MO -- 45-42, 3 pts. for Obama -- Obama won by 1
NH -- 42-29, 13 pts. for Obama -- Clinton won by 3
SC -- 41-26, 15 pts. for Obama -- Obama won by 29

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Mike in CA:

Todd,

There are a few things wrong with your analysis.

1. CA was a big error. No mistaking that. It happens to EVERY pollster. SUSA had Clinton +11 in MO, and it ended up going +1 Obama.

2. NH was another huge error. But that one shouldn't be cast aside. Instead, it should be observed in a larger context: Almost every pollster overstated Obama's support there. A couple things could have happened: Polls were right, and on election day Clinton's supporters and GOTV efforts paid off. I think this is the likely scenario. If that's the case, what makes you think that this time around, the tidal wave of polls showing Clinton pulling away at the end aren't going to invigorate Obama's supporters to throw this thing just like Clinton's did in NH...Just a thought?

3. You can't possibly use MO as an example of Zogby overstating Obama's support because the difference between +1 and +3 is within the margin of error.

4. The remaining poll, NJ, does indeed show a Clinton win in NJ, and it contains 13% undecideds. If only 5% of those undecideds broke for Clinton there you have the difference between Zogby's +5 and the actual +10.

Looking at polls is fun, but trying to draw hasty conclusions like this is not really all that helpful or scientific.

Probably the only poll where you can really claim Zogby's "overstatement" of Obama's support is CA. But again, errors happen....to everyone.

Zogby NAILED Iowa and Nevada. And was one of the only pollsters to really nail Iowa, at that.

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Picking on Zogby is only fair when you're really hungry for crosstabs - REALLY hungry, as in you can't afford to pay for them.

All the pollsters have had trouble IDing LV through these primaries, and each has blown at least one badly. Zogby's was in California.

The attack on Zogby appears to be orchestrated, which is far more interesting than the attack itself. I've seen these kinds of posts all over the place, which leads me to wonder what's going on. There can't be that many people across the USofA who have heard of John Zogby.

Or has he become the Rockstar of polling?
[naaaaa ....]

The "attack the pollster" routine is a very interesting take on guerilla campaigning. I'm fascinated by it. I wonder if it gets anyone anything, tho.

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Harry Tubman:

I think Zogby is one of the more accurate pollsters because he tries to factor in momentum, which is difficult to quantify. As many of us politicos know, many people don't make up their minds who to vote for until election day. This type of voter is highly influenced by candidate momentum. They want to vote for the winner. I think the polling results that Zogby's organization has tabulated show momentum for late deciders giving Obama their vote.

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gomer:

John Zogby's brother, James Zogby is senior analyst for Zogby international polling and a super delegate for Obama.

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gomer:

John Zogby's brother, James Zogby is senior analyst for Zogby international polling and a super delegate for Obama.

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Paul:

Only a significant error by Zogby (Clinton wins both Texas and Ohio by large margins) would result in any large delegate shift. No recent poll or analysis, including what the Clinton campaign admits, projects any positive delegate movement in Texas (she can win the primary but lose delegates because of the way delegates are apportioned and because of the dual primary/caucus system). Whereas in Ohio, demographics appear to favor Clinton, in Texas, the voting system appears to favor Obama.

Obama leads in pledged delegates by 152. Texas and Ohio combined have 334 delegates (193 Texas, 141 Ohio). If Texas splits delegates 51%-49% for Obama and Ohio splits delegates 54%-46% for Clinton, change is +171 for Clinton and +163 for Obama, so net change from Texas and Ohio would be +8 for Clinton, meaning she would be behind by 144 pledged delegates. Now if Clinton wins Texas say 52%-48%, and Ohio 55%-45%, then change would be Clinton +178, Obama +156, net gain Clinton +22, leaving her still behind in pledged delegates by 130.

Texas has 52 more delegates at stake than Ohio. From Obama's point of view, a 4 point win in Texas will make up for a 6 point loss in Ohio.

Conclusion --- unless there is a blowout one way or the other Obama still leads by between 130 delegates and 152 or more.

Rhode Island (3/4), Vermont (3/4), Mississippi (3/11) and Wyoming (3/08) have a total of 81 delegates. Rhode Island is projected +8% for Clinton, Vermont is projected +20% or more for Obama, Mississippi and Wyoming --- who knows, all of which said, these 4 states will not change the equation.

Conclusion, if campaign goes this far, Clinton goes into Pennsylvania (4/22 - 158 delegates) behind by between 130 and 152 delegates. Even if Clinton wins PA 60%-40%, and she picks up 91 delegates to Obama's 61 delegates, she would still be behind by 100 delegates.

So I would encourage the pollsters and the media spin artists to look big picture, which is all about pledged delegates. The math is very difficult for Clinton, unless super-delegates do not fall into line based on pledged delegates and/or unless Clinton gets her way with Florida and Michigan.

Final point --- in my opinion, the Democrats do not want the primary to go longer than tomorrow. With Obama and Clinton fighting each other, McCain gets a free pass and fodder to launch charges against the Democratic nominee.

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Anthony:

I think Zogby has had a Barack-Attack.

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DHinMI:

Breaking News:

Clinton now +3 in Texas, +14 in Ohio is most recent ARG polls.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Damn. Have to call more for Obama tomorrow.

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Jerry:

Instead of bashing or praising Zogby, could someone give a link to the raw data. I don't think anyone commenting has seen it. They released the raw data for their poll last week but I haven't seen any real data since. They had oversampled the Hispanic population to 35% in that poll (not 28%), to compensate for what happened in CA.

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