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POLL: Zogby Texas and Ohio


Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle/Zogby

Texas 3/1 - 3/3
Clinton 47, Obama 44... McCain 57, Huckabee 29, Paul 6

Ohio 3/1 - 3/3
Clinton 44, Obama 44... McCain 59, Huckabee 29, Paul 5

 

Comments
jake Stein:

how could this be if Obama led 63 - 37 on the last day of early voting (last friday)? are we saying that clinto had a surge of over 25 %? i don't believe this.
source:

http://www.khou.com/news/local/politics/stories/khou080228_tj_poll.87c34a6.html

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Bree:

WHAT?! They are tied in Ohio but Clinton leads in Texas?!?! HUH?!!? I think these clowns have the numbers mixed up.

Either way, good news for Obama as he can easily win both Texas and Ohio now. Texas rules favor him.

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illinoisindie:

ANyone know the margin of error on these polls. Apart from the fact that the states seem to be moving in the wrong direction

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Shawn:

Jake, that's the only poll that had Obama winning early voters by that margin. In fact, Survey USA and Insider Advantage had Clinton winning the early voters by a small amount.

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joshua bradshaw:

the MOE i believe is +- 3.4 percent

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The NOI:

Obama has really hit a wall. He's gone Dukakis on us, and the primaries haven't even ended.

Rezko won't save him now.

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Rasmus:

Yep, that is right.
This poll seems to underestimate Obamas support in TX and CLintons in OH, but I think the "real" numbers are within the MoE of this poll.

@TheNOI: Any alternatives?
Clinton as the democratic nominee would lead to a one-party-system in 2012- the Republicans would win most of the states Obama won and the traditional red states like Tennessee, too.
New Mexico, Oregon, New Hampshire- all republican.

An Obama landslide seems to be far away, but he is still the best the best horse in the democratic barn.

What shall we do- make Mike Gravel our nominee?
You CLinton supporters should hope for the Democratic party that Obama avoids any walls- he is our nominee.

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Rasmus:

Oh, and with "that is right" I mean the MoE.
It´s 3,4%, so the sample size is about 800-850.

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Rasmus:

Oh, and with "that is right" I mean the MoE is 3,4%, so the sample size is about 800-850 people.

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Bree:

Agreed Rasmus. It seems to be off somewhat. We shall soon see who is right. In any case, I see weather playing a role in Ohio like it did in Wisconsin. I expect a small win by Obama (51-49) in Ohio and a bigger Obama win in Texas (55-45). In Vermont, I see 69-31 Obama, and Rhode Island a toss-up (51-49) either way.


I expect the delegate allocation to help Obama in Ohio and Texas as well as the caucus system to favor Obama in Texas. I expect a net addition of pledged delegates after today to be in the 20-30 range. We shall see if they call me Nostradamus or Nostradumbus tomorrow.

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Brian:

Using the SurveyUSA report card method (how many points a pollster is off from his prediction), Zogby has averaged 9.75 points off the actual result over 8 primaries and caucuses. Not very good, but then the average of the other major pollsters runs between 6.71 to 11.57 points. All way off the stated margin of error.

I use a spreadsheet to apply their poll predictions, plus the average of how far they've been off in the primaries. For example: in Zogby's case, that's a span of +13 Clinton to +7 Obama for Texas).

By aligning these spans from the different pollsters and looking at the greatest areas of agreement, I come up with a range of outcomes rather than the poll average used at this site and others.

My ranges as of today show Clinton +5 to +8 ahead in Ohio and Clinton +3 to Obama +1 in Texas.

Although I'm an Obama supporter, I have to say Clinton looks in really good shape in both states. She usually loses the late deciders, but does really well with the primary day deciders. This time the polls indicate she's been picking up the former and I don't know why she'd lose the latter--"day of" voters seem to go with the one they know rather than the newcomer.

My guess is that Clinton will win Ohio by at least 7 or 8 points with a good chance of hitting double digits. I also won't be surprised if she wins by 5 in Texas. Of course, this is more a semi-literate than educated guess, so I could be wrong (and hope I am!)

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Brian:

Using the SurveyUSA report card method (how many points a pollster is off from his prediction), Zogby has averaged 9.75 points off the actual result over 8 primaries and caucuses. Not very good, but then the average of the other major pollsters runs between 6.71 to 11.57 points. All way off the stated margin of error.

I use a spreadsheet to apply their poll predictions, plus the average of how far they've been off in the primaries. For example: in Zogby's case, that's a span of +13 Clinton to +7 Obama for Texas).

By aligning these spans from the different pollsters and looking at the greatest areas of agreement, I come up with a range of outcomes rather than the poll average used at this site and others.

My ranges as of today show Clinton +5 to +8 ahead in Ohio and Clinton +3 to Obama +1 in Texas.

Although I'm an Obama supporter, I have to say Clinton looks in really good shape in both states. She usually loses the late deciders, but does really well with the primary day deciders. This time the polls indicate she's been picking up the former and I don't know why she'd lose the latter--"day of" voters seem to go with the one they know rather than the newcomer.

My guess is that Clinton will win Ohio by at least 7 or 8 points with a good chance of hitting double digits. I also won't be surprised if she wins by 5 in Texas. Of course, this is more a semi-literate than educated guess, so I could be wrong (and hope I am!)

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Brian:

Using the SurveyUSA report card method (how many points a pollster is off from his prediction), Zogby has averaged 9.75 points off the actual result over 8 primaries and caucuses. Not very good, but then the average of the other major pollsters runs between 6.71 to 11.57 points. All way off the stated margin of error.

I use a spreadsheet to apply their poll predictions, plus the average of how far they've been off in the primaries. For example: in Zogby's case, that's a span of +13 Clinton to +7 Obama for Texas).

By aligning these spans from the different pollsters and looking at the greatest areas of agreement, I come up with a range of outcomes rather than the poll average used at this site and others.

My ranges as of today show Clinton +5 to +8 ahead in Ohio and Clinton +3 to Obama +1 in Texas.

Although I'm an Obama supporter, I have to say Clinton looks in really good shape in both states. She usually loses the late deciders, but does really well with the primary day deciders. This time the polls indicate she's been picking up the former and I don't know why she'd lose the latter--"day of" voters seem to go with the one they know rather than the newcomer.

My guess is that Clinton will win Ohio by at least 7 or 8 points with a good chance of hitting double digits. I also won't be surprised if she wins by 5 in Texas. Of course, this is more a semi-literate than educated guess, so I could be wrong (and hope I am!)

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Kos:

Ohio: Clinton +4
Texas: Obama +12
Rhode Island: Clinton +6
Vermont: Obama +35

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David T:

Brian-

First of all, the earlier polls mean nothing. All you can glean from them is that they were wrong - but certainly not any voter preferences that can be transfered to today's elections. Different time, different story.

What is more likely is recent polling being an indicator.....especially ARG and PPP. Look at ARG in Wisconsin, they switched from Clinton +6 on 2/15 to Obama +10 on 2/18. HUH? apparently they "weighted" for high AA turnout in the latter poll. Did they do that in Ohio? PPP and ARG were still off by a few points from the final margin in Wisconsin as Obama support was under-polled. Ohio allocation also favors Obama. Clinton could easily win the popular vote by a few thousand and win only one or two more delegates than Obama.


I find it difficult to envision a scenario where Obama "loses" Texas. ALL the rules favor him, especially the delegate allocation procedure they have there. Even if he loses the popular vote, he could easily pick up 20-30 more delegates than her in the state due to the above reason as well as the caucus system. Of course, Team Clinton, can spin it that they won both Texas and Ohio, but really, they needed to win 60-40 in both states to have a legitimate chance at going forward.


So the amazing question lingers: Will Hillary, in the face of immense political pressure, bow out even if she wins Texas and Ohio. That would be quite interesting to see indeed. Just envision Hillary, winning three of the primaries today, but then, being forced to concede due to the delegate math. I believe even giving her Florida and Michigan does nothing to erase Obama's eventual delegate lead.


A sort of winning by losing for Obama.

Just amazing.

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Anonymous:

David T:

I didn't want to go into detail, but I only use the polls from the last 3 days before the primaries. And they've all been moving Clinton's way, as have the national daily tracking polls. Also, I'm not talking delegates, just popular vote. I do agree it's very unlikely she'll lead in delegates if this goes all the way to June, even with Florida and Michigan, but she might have the popular vote edge with those 2 states included.

I have my own views regarding whether they should count, but it is definitely something HRC would bring up if she's still in the race and their inclusion would her the edge.

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John H:

Brian,

Thanks for the good work on the pollsters. One note though - I think the data has shown that Hillary wins the late deciders.

Good work

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Steve:

Maybe this has something to do with Hillary's success with "late deciders":

http://www.southtexasnation.com/news.html

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Cristobal:

Woke Up Late...and this is what I find?? This is good on several levels...the expectations for Obama should dip...and questions should be raised...and then he wins Texas by a 10 percent margin, and he barely wins or barely loses Ohio by a 2-3 point margin, and still nets more Delegates....the real surprise if Obama wants to hit Hillary hard is to win RI. The polls show momentum there, and a 40-49 margin...but I think Hillary has that state in the bag by a more formidable margin...maybe 10-15...possibly more...if Obama wins RI...it should fully chase away her spirit.

I expect..

Vermont: Obama(by a 20+ margin)
Rhode Island: Clinton (by a 10-15 margin)
Ohio: TCTC (either by a 2-5 margin)*
Texas: Obama (by a 10-12 margin)

**The asterisk next to Ohio is for "leaning". Meaning the most likely canidate to win that state is Obama...why??? Because, the weather is horrible. Ice Storm= a lot less turnout of 65+ voters..her only STABLE base. Remember Alabama & the severe storms on Feb 5th, her base was chipped away by the Weather.

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brian:

John H.:

Thanks for the compliment, although it may well be undeserved depending on what happens tonight.

If you look at the CNN exit polls, for example, Clinton usually leads substantially among those who decided more than a month before the primary and among those who decide on the day of the primary. Obama usually wins the votes of everyone who decides inbetween (last month, last week and last 3 days).

Given the movement of the polls, it looks like she may be picking up the people who decided in the last week and the last 3 days this time. I suppose she could lose day of deciders but don't know why she would.

The obvious questions are:

1) How motivated are each groups supporters? With Clinton's back against the wall, I'd say it's probably at least even (though favoring Obama in the caucus component of the Texas primary)

2) How firm is their support? From a couple of polls I've seen, I believe Obama's supporters are more likely to change their minds.

3) The polls either report the % of undecideds or try to discern their eventual decision through several questions. How many undecideds are there on election day and where will they go? CNN exit polls for the previous primaries this cycle show a substantial percentage for this group(up to 10%)--they ordinarily (but not always) go for Clinton.

So I'm sticking with my guesses and keeping my fingers crossed that they're wrong...

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Kaitlyn:

Interesting. Also check out Newsweek's take:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/118240/output/print

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Adam TX:

Jesus Christ Zogby has done it again. "Tied" according to Zogby = 12 point Clinton win.

Seriously, don't report his numbers anymore--there is too much bias and conflict of interest involved with his brother being an Obama campaign employee.

On the upside, Zogby impressively got Texas almost right on.

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