Pollster.com

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Pollster vs Client 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Ben Smith reports on strange story of Scott Brown, Human Rights Campaign, Don't Ask Don't tell and GOP pollster Neil Newhouse (h/t @dbernstein).

Resurgent Republic examines Gallup's weekly generic ballot result; Chris Bowers counters.

Fred Barnes wonders whether Republicans can win the Senate in 2010.

Chris Bowers argues that those who leave one party are better off not joining another.

Frank Newport examines polling on the BP oil spill; Nate Silver asks it it's affecting Obama's approval.

Bill McInturff sees no health care spike for Obama.

Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar ponders whether Americans are ready to give the health reform law a chance.

Ruy Teixiera finds support for ending Don't Ask Don't Tell.

David Hill takes a look at a California proposal for a "blanket primary" system.

Nate Silver says not all internet polling should be lumped together.

Tom Jensen shares thoughts on the Alabama results.

A Findlaw survey finds most Americans cannot name a single Supreme Court Justice.

Drew Altman assesses the impact of the Daily Show and Colbert Report on the health reform debate.

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Early Predictions for US Competitive Senate seats Dems 53 GOP 46 plus Charlie Crist

PA Sestak 48 Toomey 46
KY Paul 50 Conway 48
NC Burr 52 Cunningham 47
ARK Halter 41 Boozeman 59
NH Ayotte 52 Hodes 48
IL Alexis G 52 Kirk 48
OH Fisher 49 Portman 51
Washington Rossi 50 Murray 48
Wisconsin Feingold 52 Generic Republican 48
CT Blumenthal 56 Mcmahon 44
NV Reid 51 Republican 49
CO Republican 53 Bennet 47
CA Boxer 56 Fiorina 44
DE Castle 58 Coons 42
ND Hoeven 70 Democrat 30
Florida Crist 42 Rubio 33 Meek 25
Indiana Coats 63 Democrat 37
Missouri Carnahan 46 Blunt 54


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Farleftandproud:

In the US HOuse, Democrats can more or less concede or not put a lot of rescources into 15 seats in very Republican districts. The dems could lose these districts big like in TN, ID, and AL by large margins, as well as the ones with retirements. Dems won't win many districts by a huge margin. Dems have shown they can do it in rural NY and rural western PA, and I say "yes we can".

I predict about 30 seats lost by the Dems, but Pelosi at the end of election night, saying to her supporters "we did it" We kept the house. It could have been a lot better but it could have been a lot worse.

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Vicente Duque:

Slavery was very popular, Segregation and Apartheid were the rage of the times for those Whites. Hitler was popularly and democratically elected to Chancellor of the Reich. George W. Bush elected twice

President Obama will help to sink the Arizona Racist Laws in Court, and that will greatly help him in the 2012 Election ( or ReElection )

People change their interests every day and this is false :

"Vox Populi, Vox Dei" --- Not True : The voice of People is not the Voice of God.

The rule of the Majority can produce these guys : Adolf Hitler, Heinrich Himmler, Herman Goering, Josef Goebbels, Reinhardt Heydrich, Adolf Eichman, Josef Mengele, etc ...

Polls are as good as the tricky questions of the pollsters to produce certain answers and the biased samples that always exist and can never be eliminated. Pollsters are biased in good faith and they believe to be little Angels of Heaven in Honesty, Purity and Chastity.

But I will continue visiting Nate Silver and Mark Blumenthal, every week.

Raciality.com

Vicente Duque

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hoosier_gary:

I see that Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar has glommed onto that misleading question in the NBC poll on healthcare (would you vote for someone who would throw out the healthcare bill and do nothing or vote for someone who was kind and wonderful and would do his utmost to fix problems with the bill so we could all be farting happy rainbow puppies forever?)

And, come on. 18% have no opinion on healthcare one way or the other?

The bottom line is that if you look at pollster.com's composite of polls on healthcare beginning on the day this monstrosity passed, it is at it's lowest level of support ever (41.3%). And that's when you include the phony polls like Kaiser and YouGov.

There has been no bounce. Other polls show support for repeal at 60% and above.

Just wait until the campaign season goes into full swing around labor day. You'll see support for this healthcare destruction bill drop to the 30% range.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

far left-

I don't agree with you on those predictions at all. I don't think Rossi is going to defeat Murray. OH, I see the dems picking this one up but maybe by a point or so. CO, MO, IN I think Colorado and MO are going to closer and the Dems will prevail. I think IN will be a republican pick up but that by this much. I wouldn't count out Ellsworth either. I think he can beat him actually. It might come down to the actual candidates in IN and he can prevail, just like MO.

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Farleftandproud:

Mr Merkey: I hope you are right. I am in sales and know I have my ups and downs and I sometimes hope for the best and expect the worst.

At least I have enough hope that the GOP will not retake the senate or house.

I hope my prediction is wrong about Rossi. I just don't think he would have decided to run unless he has a trick up his sleave.

I think we can call ND for the Republicans, but I am not completely sold on Castle in Delaware. Voting for a moderate governor or Rep who is of an opposing party is common, but when there is a chance at losing control of the house or senate, voters may come back to the dominant party of that state.

I can't change my prediction, but being a reliably blue state, it is possible that Castle could move to the right, and even if the voters still like him, they may not want to give the Republicans that seat. It happened in RI with Lincoln Chafee. He was very popular in 2006, yet he lost the election by 5 points because it wouldn't have given the democrats control of the senate.

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