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PPP: CO, MI, MN, NM, OR, WV (10/28-30)

Topics: PHome

Public Policy Polling
10/28-10/30
Mode: IVR

Colorado 2023 LV, 2.2%
Obama 54, McCain 44
Udall (D) 56, Schaffer (R) 41

Michigan 1532 LV, 2.5%
Obama 55, McCain 42
Sen: Levin (D-i) 58, Hoogendyk (R) 36

Minnesota 1050 LV, 3%
Obama 57, McCain 41
Franken (D) 45, Coleman (R-i) 40, Barkley (I) 14

New Mexico 1537 LV, 2.5%
Obama 58, McCain 41
Sen: Udall (D) 58, Pearce (R) 39

Oregon 1424 LV, 2.6%
Obama 57, McCain 42
Merkley (D) 51, Smith (R-i) 43 Brownlow (C) 4

West Virginia 2128 LV, 2.1%
McCain 55, Obama 42
Gov: Manchin (D-i) 69, Weeks (R) 27
Sen: Rockefeller (D-i) 58, Wolfe (R) 40

 

Comments
Trosen:

Everything looks right except NM won't be that dramatic a blowout (but still a solid win) and I'd venture to bet WV will actually be within single digits, but will stay red.

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pbcrunch:

Wow... the Udalls are definitely cruising!

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Isher:

Nice poll for franken there. About opposite of yesterday's.

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VivalaRevolucion:

PPP is a democratic pollster .. Nothing to watch here .. Next!

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nathan:

That's what I was wondering... with Franken and Merkeley up by so much... this poll seems almost too good to be true.

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Monte from PA:

PPP may be a democratic pollster, but if a pollster is partisan they may have a 2-4% lean to whomever they are supporting. So if you take off the maximum 4% off Obamas score, he is still doing good in all states besides WV.

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RS:

If "PPP is a Democratic pollster" is the best McCainiacs can do, that's sad.
If you look at other recent polls, PPP does not seem out of whack. A little higher in CO, perhaps, but by 2-3% tops. Look at SUSA, Ras, EPIC-MRA, AP-Gfk etc. for the other states, and you will find very similar margins. And if PPP is a Democratic pollster, explain WV, please - this is the biggest McCain lead till now.
I have some reservations on the CO poll - see my post on the "morning update" thread.

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Tzal:

RS- I read your comments in the other thread. You can spin those numbers either way. But I'm also skeptical of all of these polls. They just don't seem right. And yes, I understand that my skepticism is worth exactly nothing.

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Scott in PacNW:

Go Merkley! They've been sliming him big time on TV nonstop, but he manages to keep climbing in the polls. It's pretty amazing.

('They' being Sen Smith, the NRSC, Freedoms Watch, and the US Chamber of Commerce)

The MN Senate race is still so volatile. Get the popcorn ready for election night!

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RS:

@Tzal:
Your skepticism would be worth something (!) if you said exactly what it was about these polls that makes you uncomfortable.

That being said, I am not taking the CO (or any) result for granted till Nov 5. GOTV, GOTV, GOTV! :-)

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Tzal:

The partisan breakdown isn't outlandish in the CO poll, and the number of interviews is very high for state-level polling. The NM partisan breakdown may be a bit out of whack, but I can't really say. I don't know the partisan ID breakdown in NM.

The margins by which Obama is winning among early voters in both CO and NM is stunning. It usually goes the other way, with Republicans winning the early vote numbers. So I guess I can defend my skepticism on that basis. But still, it's ad hoc.

Maybe the Nov. 4 voters will break for McCain. That's not the conventional wisdom, but this is not a conventional election.

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bclintonk:

Agree that turnout is still the key in CO and all the other swing states. On the other hand, more than 1 million people have already voted in CO---should be about 40% of registered voters. If they've voted in anything like the percentages reflected in recent polls, Obama should have a healthy plurality already in the bank, making McCain's uphill climb that much steeper.

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shirefox:

Good to see the MN numbers. In MN here and desperate to see Franken whomp Coleman.

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RS:

I believe Republicans have usually had the lead in absentee voting, except this time the Obama campaign has been making people vote early. Obama's apparent lead in early voting in CO is not an isolated incident - in NC, Dems outnumber Reps by 10%, and by 7% in FL. Assuming cross-party voting roughly cancels each other (or is within the lead), this can be good news. But it all comes down to this: is the lead in early voting due to usual voters voting early, or an increase in Dem turnout? We'll find out.

So, no matter what the polls say: GOTV, GOTV, GOTV!
-- broken record :-D

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