October 7, 2008
Rasmussen: AK, PA (10/6)
Rasmussen
Mode: IVR
Alaska 10/6, 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 55, Obama 40
Sen: Stevens (R-i) 49, Begich (D) 48
Pennsylvania 10/6, 700 LV, 4.5%
Obama 54, McCain 41
By Justin Halpern on October 7, 2008 7:52 PM | Permalink
Comments
Biggest headline about the Alaska poll is the McSlime lead has been cut in half in a month. Come on Alaska, prove to us you are smarter than Palin. One month to go to turn Blue. You can do it!
I think it is safe to say Obama is solid as a rock in Pennsylvania.
ipsos has obama +7 nationally
Good. Their last poll showed him up by just 3.
Washington, DC – A new Ipsos/McClatchy poll of registered voters indicates that Barack Obama has extended his lead over John McCain – 47% for Obama/Biden and 40% for McCain/Palin. Third party candidates Ralph Nader (Independent) and Bob Barr (Libertarian) received 3% and 1% respectively.
These figures show movement from last week’s Ipsos/McClatchy poll: Obama 46% and McCain 42%.
Pollster has posted 2 PA polls today, 1 showing a 10-point Obama lead and the other showing a 15-point Obama lead. 2 other PA polls have also been released today, 1 from right-leaning Rasmussen (showing a 13-point Obama lead) and 1 from NPR (showing a 10-point Obama lead). See:
&
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/10/06/wcunpr_poll_obama_ahead_by_ten_in_pennsylvania.html
Obama is now outspending McCain by more than 1 million dollars in order to seal his victory in PA. Biden, Hillary, and Bill Clinton campaign there together this weekend. Palin (with McCain?) wastes a day of campaigning in PA tomorrow.
Guys, I think that Palin's national career has no future anymore. It seems that exposure has not being "favorable" for her, beyond the very base. Even in Alaska her numbers are slipping. Remember when she was the "most popular" governor in the nation?
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
"Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 72% of voters in her home state, including 56% who hold a Very Favorable opinion of her."
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
"Sixty-three percent (63%) of Alaska voters have a favorable opinion of Palin, including 46% who say their view of her is Very Favorable."
In less than a month, Palin is also losing "fans" even in Alaska. She went from 72% to 63% favorable, an almost 10% drop. That's her home state.
I looked at polling report.com and saw that Obama leads in 24 consecutive nationwide polls.
These are not the daily tracking polls.
McCain goes on the attack on Freddie and Fanny and the Ohio meter on CNN dips for both men and women. Some nerve, btw, considering his staff and his links to Fannie and Freddie.
And he ducks the question #2. Nice. A real game changer.
The great thing is that Palin is set up to sweep up the base for the 2012 primaries. She will be the Mondale for Obama's reelection landslide.
@ThatMarvelousApe
I am not so sure she is such a slam dunk for 2012 primaries. Firstly, as Keith Olbermann (and carl29 above) pointed out last week, Palin's approval dipped from the highest in the nation in the mid-80%, it is now in the 60's and there are two governors more popular than she is.
And that's with only a 5 weeks worth of national spotlight. Multiply that by 3.5 years. That's over 40 months worth of material for SNL, 40 months worth of scrutiny on her husband and his cessationist group, her Jerry Springer-like family and so on.
In a word, she will not only FAIL, she will be a supernova of failure. Will she be even re-elected as Alaska governor? Will she go back to being a newscaster? I think the latter is more likely.
Hey, while I was typing McCain lost Florida, reciting his propose Medicare cuts. Nice! Self-destruction, anyone?
Well, at least Obama is actually answering the questions. McCain isn't answering the questions and is repeating the same stuff over and over.
Intrade is showing the obvious: Obama is winning this debate again.
@MNLatteLiberal
I agree comoletely. We are not seeing the real Sarah Palin here, we get to see a scripted tightly controlled speech giver.
She would get DESTROYED in the Republican primaries where they won't protect her from the media scrutiny like they do now. She would have to answer questions at some point in time and she has proven that she just doesn't have the capacity to do that.
Unless John McCain gets elected and dies she will never be president.
Boomfail is right. If Palin was on the ticket, this state would have FINALLY turned blue but as soon as she was added to the ticket, the state was out of reach. The people in AK don't like McCain for starters (which is surprising because of the number of military people here) because I believe he placed 4th in the primaries (behind Romny, Huckabee, AND Ron Paul! haha)
Anyways, sadly the people here are palin-washed and most likely won't turn blue. However, I will tell you that the anti-Palin people in Alaska are MUCH MORE intense than the pro-Palin people. There just isn't enough of us :-/ (But we'll try dammit!)
McCain is mentioning Hoover, still teaching history to the Americans. He is flatlining meanwhile. Jello to the wall? Flat. What Senator Obama doesn't understand? Flat.
McCampaign has learned NOTHING from debate 1 and debate 2. Sad.
Maybe we'll be able to turn Alaska blue in 2012.
@1Angry,
Well, I knew from the outset that I liked all the angry people out there. The dwarf, the toxicologist, the alaskan.. :). I mean, as the saying goes, "if you are not outraged, then you are not paying attention"
"Let's get back to the record and taxes, my friends..." - McDip. LMAO.
great answer from Obama on the environment!
simply great.
My friends, my friends, my friends
@MNLatteLiberal
Nice. I'm glad someone finally got the joke.
Waht the heck is McCain doing? Sit down and stay still when Obama is speaking. Wandering around in the background is distracting. That is the rudest thing I have ever seen.
McCain just did not talk about hair implants....!!!
@Decatur Mark,
I SWEAR to you, I saw McCain doing one of his stupid condescending smirks during an Obama answer. In would like to enter that into McCain's Ms Congeniality contest.
Oooh, angry arm cross from McCain as I type this.
Switching subjects, is anyone else watching this on CNN? The meter is through the roof on Obama's responses and flat on most of McCain's.
Illinoisinide: Oh yes, he did talk about hair transplants.
McCain Meltdown! Live on TV!
Is it just me or is Barack really kicking McCain around up there? I mean, I'm trying not to be biased here... McCain is being every bit the grumpy, snarky, angry old man that he didn't need to be tonight.
I think tonight = nail in coffin for McCain.
McCain is throwing accusations at Obama, so Obama can't defend himself AND answer the quaestion w/o going over. Hey, McCain, I haven't heard an actual answer for i don't know, ALL of your questions.
illinoisindie, did you see the women's response to that hair plug "joke"? The women, with whom he was doing OK on the health care plans until then, dipped to below 50%. Instantly. Because, as my wife points out, most people KNOW what their health plan covers, and we have yet to see one that covers hair plugs.
McCain is talking down to the audience, educating them. Obama's style is empathy and understanding.
John McCain, what does it feel to be crushed by the tide of history? That's what I'd ask.
Hey, I got a new one. McCrony! :D
I stopped watching due to the endless repetition of the same old talking points. And on military people, the 2 candidates who got the most contributions from the military are Ron Paul, and Barack Obama.
Ugh, bad move by Obama by saying "kill osama bin laden" and McCain gets a point for saying not to publicize if you're going to attack someone.
New total Obama: 392 McCain: 1
McCain is bubbling Palin-like on his Pakistan counter. Wow. McMeltdown.
babbling. sorry
McShame was a veteran? I didn't know that.
Wow McShame is lucky Obama did not agree to 10 townkall meetings!
good answer from McCain on "cold war with Russia" thus far, and it shows in the response of the audience.
My Friends....
Wow let's have more town halls. Obama is AMAZING. This is not good for McCain. It's old vs. new. Intelligent vs. same ole' party line. WOW WOW WOW. This is a 100% improvement for Obama from debate #1.
Can I just say that Obama kicked some major butt? This is much more convincing than even the first debate. But I am biased. But the CNN meter is not.
Anyone else grinning ear to ear?
Where's the game changer for McCain?
I did not see it, did somebody do?
Obama's Health care response was my fav of the night. He brought it home.
Well, if David Gergen agrees with us...
LMAO. Great job, Barack Obama.
No, make that President-Elect Barack Obama. Get used to saying that, folks.
Bill Bennett agrees with us too in his sick right wing way, of course, but agrees. Wow.
Obama connecting the health care insurance companies going to the state with best laws and regulations FOR the insurance companies (and thus worst for the consumers) to the credit card companies going to Delaware should have REALLY connected to most people.
Faux News will not play that portion of the debate, but look for other media outlets to do at least some discussion on that.
It's officially over.
McCain had one last chance for him to affect the election, and regardless of how hard he tried or how well he might have done, Obama shined better than he had ever before in a debate, and clearly won. McCain needed to at least knock Obama down, and he barely grazed him. I don't even have to speak as to how well McCain might have done in representing himself. This won't change the dynamics with 4 weeks to go.
The polls are surging for Obama because people that weren't watching before, or who had only previously compared him to Hillary, have now gotten to know Obama much better, and they like him and feel comfortable with him.
There's also human nature at play here. When you are losing, people don't want to be on your team. It's too late to change that dynamic, and just like an Internet stock, Obama is shooting to the moon, but he is doing so on fundamentals and he won't crash.
Game, set and match.
nope, no game changer. just continued obama increases in polls.
What a GREAT night for President Obama. I can't believe EVERY human voting can't see the CLEAR difference between these men. WOW.
DEBATES OVER:
I really don't see how McCain can win this, he really needed to blow Obama up tonight and he didn't.
At this point, unless something dramatic happens, I think Obama will win.
Definitely no game changer. I don't think McCain did poorly by any stretch. But there were one or two questions (such as health care, and what would your priorities be) where Obama was much better with his answer. I suspect questions like those will stick out with the undecideds.
I was surprised at the complete lack of negative tactics in the debate.
Holy God boomshak. Did you just say what I think you did? WOW. Please don't sweat Obama... I think you've been worked up into a frenzy. I think deep down inside YOU KNOW he will be a transformational leader and this country BADLY needs it right now, liberal OR conservative.
Debates are not Obama's strength and he nailed it.
hey, boomshack, wanna go door knocking with me for Obama this Sat?
Honestly - the words that kept running through my mind for McCain tonight: "Not. His. Year."
His time was 2000, and it was sadly robbed from him by disgusting attacks from Rove and Company.
If he had won the primary in 2000, he would have wiped the floor with Gore. But this year is a change election and Obama has just captured it better. Meanwhile, I'm saddened that McCain seems to have lost his true voice in the name of winning.
i thought it was somewhat of a draw, except for health care where obama clearly won
well i guess... see ya later, McStunt!
:)
obama took this one, no question...
don't know if you already saw this, but here is a link to the previous debate highlights:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/03/sarah-palin-debate-flowch_n_131607.html
OBAMA: We are all gonna be like three little Fonzies.
What was Fonzie like? WHAT WAS FONZIE LIKE!!!
MCCAIN...cool?
OBAMA: Exactamundo!!!
any post debate instant polls yet?
@NW Patrick:
Romney was always my guy. I've been towing the line for McCain simply because I don't want America to become a Socialist nation.
But the guy is just too old and too dull. This will be Obama's year, God help us.
You guys just bought the crap sandwich, I hope you like it as much as you think you will.
id like to add how pleased i was to see no personal attacks the entire evening.
{{{{DRUDGE POLL}}}} WHO WON THE SECOND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE?...
MCCAIN
71% 47,855
OBAMA
26% 17,793
NEITHER
3% 2,199
Total Votes: 67,847
But this is typical
Boom:
Back to my earlier point:
Goto foxnews's website. There is a question:
Question of the Day
Is Barack Obama's relationship to Bill Ayers troubling to you?
Yes 34%
No 66%
Total Voters:74147
McCain may have run the sh*ttiest campaign in the history of earth. Bummer, oh well.
Let's see if the do-nothing Dems can somehow stear us clear of a depression.
Ryan in MO:
There are unscientific online polls at both cnn.com and cbsnews.com. Keep in mind they're online polls, so not entirely accurate. That said, it's hard to argue a 82% Obama or 84% Obama victory could be anything but a win for him.
@Ryan in MO:
Who fared better in Tuesday's presidential debate?
Sen. John McCain 13% 5454
Sen. Barack Obama 84% 34740
No clear winner 3% 1146
Total Votes: 41340
It's CNN be careful :-)
boom, if mccain was winning i wonder if youd be saying that he was buying the crap sandwich. this is what elections are supposed to be about. you keep talking about us dems not having the republicans to blame anymore. thats exactly what we want! thats why we are running against you guys! so we are going to try it our way, and guess what the beautiful thing is, in just 4 short years, you get to come back on this board again and talk about how we cant afford to elect a democrat. if you are correct and this country becomes worse off (im not sure how thats possible) than maybe people will want a republican again... if we are right and the country is better off, than we all win, regardless of party affiliation.
After VP debate she was up 80% on drudge poll as well.
Boom:
Back to my earlier point:
Goto foxnews's website. There is a question:
Question of the Day
Is Barack Obama's relationship to Bill Ayers troubling to you?
Yes 34%
No 66%
Total Voters:74147
These Internet Polls (Drudge, CNN, etc) are worthless.
Missed the debate, its bowling night and I just got in.
Forgetting the lib responses, if BOOM says its over I take it the night did not go well for McCain.
id also like to say that if your tract record for predictions is any indicator, boom, than we will be in great shape over the next 4 years.
CNN instant poll (scientific one): Obama 54, McCain 30
Dems: 37
Reps 31
Looking at Fox, CBS, and MSNBC online polls last week even with early voting it was like 55 - 45 Obama. Tonight? like 85-15 so far. BIG difference.
@political_junki:
At this point, I don't care anymore. McCain had a HUGE chance tonight and just punted once again. I'm sick of his sh*tty campaign and can no longer defend him.
I hope Obama does as well as everyone thinks he will. Maybe it will be good having a POTUS the world and the MSM loves?
We'll find out.
Oh, and their opinions pre and post debate:
Obama Fav Pre 60, post 64
McCain Fav Pre 38 post 34
Also on the CNN poll. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but Obama's favorable rating went up by 4 or 5 points (unfavorables also lower), while McCain's were unchanged. Clearly McCain will not get a shift in momentum out of this.
Yes Obama won because a tie goes to him.
I honestly would not be surprised to see Rasmussen +12 to +15 within a week.
Not only MSM and the world, +50% love him, I hope the rest give him a chance atleast
Not only MSM and the world, +50% of people of US love him, I hope the rest give him a chance atleast
CNN just reported:
Who Won?
Obama 54%
McCain 30%
Obama favorability (up 4 points from pre-debate)
Favorable: 68%
Unfavorable: 30%
McCain favorability (unchanged from pre-debate)
Favorable: 51%
Unfavorable: 46%
I think Obama will go down though to +5 or +6.
Nobody regardless of everything will be able to maintain a 8+ lead for long
I might have gotten the Obama favorability wrong, it might have been:
Obama favorability (up 4 points from pre-debate)
Favorable: 64%
Unfavorable: 34%
Obama's biggest thing he has done in these debates is to just seem like a reasonable guy. He did that.
God help us.
C'mon, boom, come aboard, we're expecting you. Remember that song?
My wife and I are co-hosting Mamas for Obama in the Twin Cities this weekend, come on over. I will give you your very own McFail/Panic yard sign I made up from a bunch of McCain propaganda.
I will even let you talk for five minutes to the live public. Deal or No deal?
HERE'S WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE MCCAIN CAMPAIGN IN A NUTSHELL:
Tonight, McCain announced a major new initiative to have the government buy up all of these bad mortgages.
Romney is one of McCains' Chief Economic Advisors and HE DIDN'T EVEN KNOW MCCAIN WAS GOING TO ANNOUNCE THAT!
Just incredible sloppy, horribly run campaign.
CNN Poll gives an overwhelming victory to Obama
boomshat said...
"These Internet Polls (Drudge, CNN, etc) are worthless."
And who was the idiot who first brought up the Drudge poll, and trumpeting it in all caps?
Was it boomshat or someone else?
Why, I'm glad you asked that question, as it actually WAS boomshat, October 7, 2008 11:01 PM.
My whole family is republican so I am used to people hating Obama or fearing him baselessly. I think what he should do is stay in the center.
*Well except one thing :
LIBERAL SUPREME COURT JUDGES, YAAAY :-)
political junki... one of my favorite lines in politics is
"well with how bad things are blank candidate should be up by 15+ points. the fact that they are only up by blank is an indicator of how hesitant people are to elect him/her."
its such a hilarious line i crack up every time. first of all its a tremendous insult to their own candidate. second of all, all of these guys are quite aware that a sustained 6 point lead is QUITE significant and impressive. they try to act as though there is not already a set electorate... and that every election we start at 0 on both sides and people just decide what party to belong to at some point during the campaign.
@MNLatteLiberal
Even though we're sharing the same political ideology I wanna to correct you on this one
"Obama Fav Pre 60, post 64
McCain Fav Pre 38 post 34"
I think you;re mistaking Obama's Unfav for McCain's Fav. The McCain Fav pre/post is around 52/56 therefore not that low :-)
I'm telling you guys, this race is over. I think we are looking at a major landslide.
If Obama is going to win, then a landslide is best because it will mena he has to govern as he has run - as a MODERATE.
If he goes uber-lib on us there will be hell to pay.
Alex Castellano (Republican) on CNN said: "Tonight I learned that McCain was going to buy everybody a house."
Independent Thinker,
You might be right. I am multitasking here :) writing as I watch the numbers pop up on TV. Thanks for correcting me.
@Ryguy:
Ditto. Well put.
Mccain's fav/unfav in the CNN poll was unchanged pre/post debate. 51/46.
he Asian markets are falling again. T. Boone Pickens claims to want my advice, but he's a liar. Obama won barely tonight. Still not specific or empathic enough, methinks. McCain can't seem to win. He just doesn't have the right positions or approaches. Tonight, he tried to rescue all the failing mortgages. Well, Countrywide and BofA are doing the same thing, finally, after fighting it and fighting it. Even FHA is doing the same thing. So, McCain just repeated what is (as of today) a thing to try and do.
But, Asia is crashing. It's too late. The commercial real estate market is damaged, badly. That wasn't Fannie or Freddie. That was Countrywide's contribution to the insanity.
No one knows how this will play out -- but I certainly prefer a smart guy to a middlin' one.
@Boomshak
I said it earlier today that you would be afflicted with Stockholm Syndrome and I was right! You sympathize with your captors....you are one of us now....bless you!
he Asian markets are falling again. T. Boone Pickens claims to want my advice, but he's a liar. Obama won barely tonight. Still not specific or empathic enough, methinks. McCain can't seem to win. He just doesn't have the right positions or approaches. Tonight, he tried to rescue all the failing mortgages. Well, Countrywide and BofA are doing the same thing, finally, after fighting it and fighting it. Even FHA is doing the same thing. So, McCain just repeated what is (as of today) a thing to try and do.
But, Asia is crashing. It's too late. The commercial real estate market is damaged, badly. That wasn't Fannie or Freddie. That was Countrywide's contribution to the insanity.
No one knows how this will play out -- but I certainly prefer a smart guy to a middlin' one.
The problem that Obama will have to contend with after he gets in is a biggie. This is the essence of it (from a NYTimes blog, written by someone else):
"... Obama lacks the power to bring real change to government and Wall Street as he will have to go up against the pitbull mentality of always bitter Republicans who would rather see the nation burn and crumble than to have successes happen during a democratic Presidency. Still, Obama is the only real choice as we cannot afford a McCain/Palin Greek tragedy..."
Sounds like I didn't miss much of a debate.
How many of those campaign promises will Obama actually deliver on?
Hold on to your wallets boys, here we go.
boomshak
I agree that Obama is going to win. Now would you and the rest of your party ask McCain and that pathetic pig in lipstick to stop trying to insite violence against the next President of the United States.
I am the only one who didn't think Obama walked away with this? I thought it was reasonably close, but I would give Obama the edge. I don't think it will move the poll numbers by much, but again, as long as Obama maintains his edge, it's a win for him.
@maddiekat:
Inciting violence? WTF are you talking about? Geesh, you moonbats creep me out sometimes.
@C.S.Strowbridge:
McCain needed to win and win big. He just wasn't up to it. Too bad.
@C.S.Strowbridge
I made up my mind for Obama a long time ago but didn't watch the debate....only the polls afterwards. Your opinion only is of value for you. The polls determine the vote....or predict. Obama clearly won based on them. Of course I think Mccain is totally lost and useless so he deserves to lose...I might have voted for him in 2000...thought he was solid then...not now.
Guys,take it from me the game is OVER
Now it'll come down to how much race will matter, this is the only thing that can save McCain
Well, one thing will be interesting: to see what it's like to have a POTUS the media adores instead of trying top hamstring him 24/7.
Hm, unfortunate news for Begich. He seemed to be staying on top even after Palin entered the race. Hopefully this is just an outlier and not a trend.
Posted on October 7, 2008 8:32 PM